Google is a social media addict and it has fallen off the wagon again

Googlers just don’t know when to give up when it comes to social media as the internet giant attempts to crack the market once again with Shoelace.

It’s been almost six months since the team decided to shut-down Google+ but the search behemoth hasn’t given up just yet. We’ve lost track at how many times Google has attempted to crack this lucrative market, and the latest attempt will put much more of a hyper-local twist on the social networking euphoria.

“Shoelace is a mobile app that helps connect people with shared interests through in person activities,” the team has written in the new platforms FAQs. “It’s great for folks who have recently moved cities or who are looking to meet others who live nearby.”

Coming out of Google’s Area 120, an experimental group within the R&D business, the team will look to create a platform which will focus on uniting people in local communities and neighbourhoods depending on their interests and experiences. It is a slightly different twist to and the Google team will be hoping its fifth time lucky as it attempts to crack the code.

Starting in New York with an invite-only private test, the platform will hope to push events out to users and encourage them to create their own. This might be as simple as checking to see if anyone within a five-minute walk would want to join a kick-about in the park, or it could be to promote a comedy-night in the local pub.

On the commercial side, it makes sense. Should Google be able to scale adoption to a suitable level there will certainly be demand from advertisers, from small pubs hoping to promote bingo to larger music venues hoping to sell tickets. However, if Google can’t convince enough users to engage with the platform, what’s the point.

This is where Google has struggled before; user adoption. Google+, Google Buzz and Google Friend Connect are all examples of platforms which failed because no-one actually used them aside from Google employees. Shoelace is the latest act of defiance from a company which does not know when to quit, and it is presenting a niche idea.

Users will be able to make use of a mapping feature to browse the local area for events, yoga in the park for instance, irrelevant as to whether they are connected to an individual who is attending or not. This is where it is slightly different from other platforms, it is activity driven not connection driven. This might sound like a good USP, but it relies on the assumption users will be OK spending their time with strangers.

Each time Google has attempted to crack the social media world, there seems to be a groan from the cynics and unimaginative who have decided there are enough social media platforms already. Google does not want to give up the potential gold-mine which is social media and the fortunes of competitors demonstrate why.

Alongside Google, Facebook is recognised as a leader in the world of online advertising. The core platform, as well as Instagram and WhatsApp, are making billions for Zucks and his cronies, but they are not alone. Twitter is starting to hoover up profits while Snap is looking like a genuine business and over in China, WeChat is perhaps the most complete offering around, combining social, communication, payments and eCommerce all in one place. You can see why Google has such a fascination with social media.

Matrix themed virus infects 25 million smartphones

A new variant of mobile malware, dubbed ‘Agent Smith’, which re-directs advertising funds to cybercriminals, has been identified and its infected 25 million smartphones already.

Discovered by Check Point, this is a sneaky virus to deal with. Like ‘Agent Smith’ in the Matrix trilogy, the virus has the ability to consume a downloaded app and assume control.

Right now, the user is not being exploited in a direct manner. The presence of the virus does present dangers in terms of eavesdropping or credit fraud, but currently, the cybercriminals are using the virus to collect cash off advertisers through various trusted applications. The application is forced to display more adds than designed with the attackers collecting the additional credits.

“In this case, “Agent Smith” is being used to for financial gain through the use of malicious advertisements,” Check Point said on its blog.

“However, it could easily be used for far more intrusive and harmful purposes such as banking credential theft and eavesdropping. Indeed, due to its ability to hide its icon from the launcher and impersonate existing user-trusted popular apps, there are endless possibilities for this sort of malware to harm a user’s device.”

Check Point estimate that 25 million devices have been infected to date, the majority are in India and other Asia nations, although there have been identified devices in the US, UK and Australia. Although Check Point has not directly stated it, some have suggested the virus can be traced back to Guangzhou, China.

Agent Smith VirusThe virus itself works in three phases. Firstly, the user is encouraged to download a simplistic, free app (usually a minimal function game or sex-app) which contain an encrypted malicious payload. At this point, the malware searches the user’s device for any popular apps on a pre-determined list which can be targets at a later date.

During the second phase, the malicious payload is decrypted into its original form and then abuses several known vulnerabilities without giving any clues to the user. Finally, the malware then attacks the pre-determined applications, extracting the innocent application’s APK file and then patches it with extra malicious modules.

‘Agent Smith’ was first detected in 2016 and the cybercriminals have seemingly been laying the groundwork for a larger attack for some time. It has certainly evolved over this period, and although Check Point has reported the malicious apps to the Google Security team, who is to say there are not more. The danger of ‘Agent Smith’ is that it is incredibly difficult to identify in the first place.

Perhaps this is an oversight in the security world which we will have to address before too long.

As it stands, numerous parties around the world are constantly on the look out for nefarious activity, however, in most cases the assumption is that it will be a state-sponsored attack. This does not seem to be the case here and perhaps why it is very difficult to detect the malware in the first place; everyone is looking for the wrong clues.

In this example, Check Point seem to have caught the suspect firm ahead of time, informing the Google Security team before any genuine damage has been done. That said, 25 million devices is still a substantial number but with the source identified it should be limited.

Researchers point to 1,300 apps which circumnavigate Android’s opt-in

Research from a coalition of professors has suggested Android location permissions mean little, as more than 1,300 apps have developed ways and means around the Google protections.

A team of researchers from the International Computer Science Institute (ICSI) has been working to identify short-comings of the data privacy protections offered users through Android permissions and the outcome might worry a few. Through the use of side and covert channels, 1,300 popular applications around the world extracted sensitive information on the user, including location, irrelevant of the permissions sought or given to the app.

The team has informed Google of the oversight, which will be addressed in the up-coming Android Q release, receiving a ‘bug bounty’ for their efforts.

“In the US, privacy practices are governed by the ’notice and consent’ framework: companies can give notice to consumers about their privacy practices (often in the form of a privacy policy), and consumers can consent to those practices by using the company’s services,” the research paper states.

This framework is a relatively simple one to understand. Firstly, app providers provide ‘notice’ to inform the user and provide transparency, while ‘consent’ is provided to ensure both parties have entered into the digital contract with open eyes.

“That apps can and do circumvent the notice and consent framework is further evidence of the framework’s failure. In practical terms, though, these app behaviours may directly lead to privacy violations because they are likely to defy consumers’ expectations.”

What is worth noting is while this sounds incredibly nefarious, it is no-where near the majority. Most applications and app providers act in accordance with the rules and consumer expectations, assuming they have read the detailed terms and conditions. This is a small percentage of the apps which are installed en-mass, but it is certainly an oversight worth drawing attention to.

Looking at the depth and breadth of the study, it is pretty comprehensive. Using a Google Play Store scraper, the team downloaded the most popular apps for each category; in total, more than 88,000 apps were downloaded due to the long-tail of popularity. To cover all bases however, the scraper also kept an eye on app updates, meaning 252,864 different versions of 88,113 Android apps were analysed during the study.

The behaviour of each of these apps were measured at the kernel, Android-framework, and network traffic levels, reaching scale using a tool called Android Automator Monkey. All of the OS-execution logs and network traffic was stored in a database for offline analysis.

Now onto how these apps developers can circumnavigate the protections put in place by Google. For ‘side channels’, the developer has discovered a path to a resource which is outside the security perimeters, perhaps due to a mistake during design stages or a flaw in applying the design. With ‘covert channels’ these are more nefarious.

“A covert channel is a more deliberate and intentional effort between two cooperating entities so that one with access to some data provides it to the other entity without access to

the data in violation of the security mechanism,” the paper states. “As an example, someone could execute an algorithm that alternates between high and low CPU load to pass a binary message to another party observing the CPU load.”

Ultimately this is further evidence the light-touch regulatory environment which has governed the technology industry over the last few years can no-longer be allowed to persist. The technology industry has protested and quietly lobbied against any material regulatory or legislative changes, though the bad apples are spoiling the harvest for everyone else.

As it stands, under Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Act, such activities would be deemed as non-compliant, and we suspect the European Commission would have something to say with its GDPR stick as well. There are protections in place, though it seems there are elements of the technology industry who consider these more guidelines than rules.

Wholesale changes should be expected in the regulatory environment and it seems there is little which can be done to prevent them. These politicians might be chasing PR points as various elections loom on the horizon, but the evolution of rules in this segment should be considered a necessity nowadays.

There have simply been too many scandals, too much abuse of grey areas and too numerous examples of oversight (or negligence, whichever you choose) to continue on this path. Of course, there are negative consequences to increased regulation, but the right to privacy is too important a principle for rule-makers to ignore; the technology industry has consistently shown it does not respect these values therefore will have to be forced to do so.

This will be an incredibly difficult equation to balance however. The technology industry is leading the growth statistics for many economies around the world, but changes are needed to protect consumer rights.

Google Maps to start predicting crowdedness on public transport

Google Maps is already one of the most popular ways to plan the comings and goings of daily life, but a new update makes it just a little bit better.

Launched at the end of last week, Google Maps will now tell users how busy public transport is likely to be and whether users should anticipate delays on a journey. It’s a simple upgrade, but this extra little bit of information is an example of why Google Maps is such a popular application around the world.

“On days when everything runs smoothly, taking public transit is one of the best ways to get around town,” Google stated in a blog post. “Not only is it cost-effective and efficient, but it also lets you stay hands-free, so you can sit back, relax and maybe even read a few chapters of your favourite book.

“But unexpected delays or overcrowded vehicles can quickly turn your ride from enjoyable to stressful. Starting today, Google Maps is rolling out two new features to help you better plan for your transit ride and stay more comfortable along the way.”

There are two new snippets of information which are being introduced here. Firstly, users will be told whether there are any delays on the bus to be aware of. Many estimates on time of arrival are based on the average time in which it takes the bus to get from point A to point B, not taking into account the conditions at that time. To counter this problem, Google will introduce live traffic updates.

Secondly, the Maps application will begin to tell users whether they are likely to snag a seat on an up-coming bus, train or underground journey. This section is more guesswork than anything else, using data collected on journeys through the last two years to figure out the current situation. That said, these guesses are usually correct and might be useful for anyone who gets a bit fidgety during the busy periods of travel.

These two features will be rolled out in 200 cities across the world, including numerous locations in the UK such as Cardiff, London, Nottingham and Reading.

Google Maps is turning into a wonderful money maker for the team, and this is perhaps the very reason why. Numerous features are being introduced without necessarily tying them to the bottom line. Google is not necessarily going to make money from these updates, but more people might use the product. It’s the built it and they will come attitude, focusing on nailing experience before turning to profits.

Niantic’s Harry Potter launches but remains in Pokémon Go’s shadow

Harry Potter: Wizards Unite is up-and-running, but its dash from the starting line is no-where near as fast as Niantic’s gold standard, Pokémon Go.

Few would have predicted the roaring success of Pokémon Go. Most would have assumed it would have done well, but the sustained acceleration of downloads and revenues came as a surprise to most. Even now, almost three years after the launch of the game, Niantic is still hoovering up the cash; the first quarter of 2019 brought in an estimated $205 million; it left a lot for Harry Potter to live up to.

But if you are expecting new records to be broken, you might feel a little bit underwhelmed.

This is not to say Harry Potter: Wizards Unite is not doing well. Most app developers would sell their left leg for the numbers being reported over this weekend. According to estimates from Sensor Tower, Harry Potter: Wizards Unite was downloaded three million times over the opening weekend, bringing in $1.1 million in player spending. Projections for the first month stand at roughly $10 million.

For a single title, most developers would be thrilled by this, but Niantic will always have the Pokémon Go comparisons to deal with.

During the first four days of Pokémon Go, Niantic boasted 24 million downloads and player spending of $28 million. In the first month, player spending reached $206 million and downloads were almost 173 million. Realistically, Harry was always going to struggle to meet these expectations. But that is not to say it won’t be a success.

Your correspondent downloaded the game over the weekend and has been playing around with it over the last few days, and it is pretty good. The experience is better than Pokemon Go, the AR is closer to what many would expect and there is more of a story involved.

There are a few issues, though many of these would have been expected. Heavy data consumption should be expected, your correspondent used 636 MB in the first two days and wasn’t using it as much as most would. Battery life also takes a notable kick, five hours was knocked off what was to be expected on the device in question. Both of these factors might have a notable impact on how much users are using the game in the long-run.

But why has Harry Potter: Wizards Unite fallen short on the lofty goals? We suspect the nostalgia factor is the biggest contributor.

Firstly, lets have a look at the audience. Pokémon came into existence in 1996 primarily targeted at children, however even in the early days there was popularity with those in their 20s. Those who played the original games are 23 years older, though the TV series also proved to be incredibly popular across the world, running from 1997 through to today. There will be millions who are in their 20s, 30s and 40s who would have watched the show and felt the nostalgia bug when the game was launched almost three years ago.

The first Harry Potter title was released in 1997, though perhaps did not reach the peak of its fandom for a decade. During the 00s, the final books were being released and the films were taking the franchise to new audiences. Harry Potter remains popular today, but the core audiences are younger due to the longer period of time it took the spark to grow into a flame.

In short, the nostalgia bug bit for more people in control of credit cards for Pokémon Go than with Harry Potter: Wizards Unite. Many of those downloading the Harry Potter title today will have to ask permission from parents to make purchases, whereas we suspect a much higher proportion of those with Pokémon Go can make their own financial decisions.

Looking at statistics revealed by Survey Monkey a few months after Pokémon Go was released, 71% of players were aged between 18 and 50. The comparative numbers have not been revealed for Harry Potter: Wizards Unite just yet, but we suspect they will be a lot younger. For the final two films of the Harry Potter series, 56% and 55% were over the age of 25, but the books are designed for teenagers.

Secondly, we are going to have a look at the global appeal of both titles.

Although both are incredibly popular throughout the world, one originated in the UK and the other in Japan. Due to the fact the Pokémon TV series was animated, dubbing into new languages would have been much simpler, increasing the accessibility of the content. The TV series is available in 169 countries around the world, while the Harry Potter book series has been translated into 80 different languages.

Harry Potter is very popular in the likes of Japan, South Korea and China, though we suspect it does not exceed the popularity of Pokemon at its prime. This will have a translation into the nostalgia effect which drove the initial adoption of Pokémon Go and the continued success today. Let’s not forget, the US and Asia are the two biggest regions for gaming revenues and perhaps these markets favour the Pokemon brand over Harry Potter.

We confident the Harry Potter game will be a success, but it isn’t able to tap into the nostalgia effect of the right audiences. With the brand continuing to be more relevant than Pokemon is today, see the theme parks and sustained popularity of the movies, it will bring in revenues but perhaps not on the same scale in the short- to mid-term as Pokémon Go.

What we are less confident about is the impact this will have on the normalisation of AR in the entertainment world as a direct result. Yes, it will have an incremental impact and open the eyes of some, but we doubt this will be a watershed moment for the technology.

That said, we do not believe there will ever be a watershed moment for AR. This is likely to be a technology which gathers momentum slowly, gradually being introduced as additional features in every day life. Before we know it, AR will be everywhere, and we’ll wonder where it came from.

Maine gets tough on telcos over data economy

Maine Governor Janet Mills has signed new privacy rules into law, demanding more proactive engagement from broadband providers in the data-sharing economy.

While the rules are tightening up an area of the digital world which is under-appreciated at the moment, it will have its critics. The law itself is targeting those companies who delivering connectivity solutions to customers, the telcos, not the biggest culprits of data protection and privacy rights, the OTTs and app developers.

The rules are applicable to broadband providers in the state, both mobile and fixed, and force a more proactive approach in seeking consent. Telcos will now be compelled to seek affirmative consent from customers before being allowed to use, disclose, sell or permit access to customer personal information, except in a few circumstances.

As is on-trend with privacy rules, the ‘opt-out’ route, used by many to ensure the lazy and negligent are caught into the data net, has been ruled out.

There are also two clauses included in the legislation which block off any potential coercing behaviour from the telcos also:

  • Providers will not be allowed to refuse service to a customer who does not provide consent
  • Customers cannot be penalised or offered a discount based on that customer’s decision to provide or not provide consent

This is quite an interesting inclusion in the legislation. Other states, California for example, are building rules which will offer freedoms to those participating in the data-sharing economy if the spoils are shared with those providing the data (i.e. the customer), though the second clause removes the opportunity to offer financial incentives or penalties based on consent.

This is not to say rewards will not be offered however. There is wiggle room here, zero-rating offers on in-house services or third-party products for example, which does undermine the rules somewhat.

It is also worth noting that these rules only pertain to what the State deems as personal data. Telcos can continue to monetize data which is not considered personal without seeking affirmative consent, unless the customer has written to the telco to deny it this luxury. Personal data is deemed as the following categories:

  • Web browsing history
  • Application usage history
  • Geolocation
  • Financial
  • Health
  • Device identifiers
  • IP Address
  • Origin and destination of internet access service
  • Content of customer’s communications

What is worth noting is this is a solution to a problem, but perhaps not the problem which many were hoping would be addressed.

Firstly, the telcos are already heavily regulated, with some suggesting already too much so. There are areas which need to be tightened up, but this is not necessarily the problem child of the digital era. The second point is the issue which we are finding hard to look past; what about the OTTs, social media giants and app community?

The communications providers do need to be addressed, though the biggest gulf in regulation is concerning the OTTs and app developers. These are companies which are operating in a relative light-touch regulatory environment and benefiting considerably from it. There are also numerous examples of incidents which indicate they are not able to operate in such a regulatory landscape.

Although it is certainly a lot more challenging to put more constraints on these slippery digital gurus, these companies are perhaps the biggest problem with the data-sharing economy. Maine might grab the headlines here with new privacy rules, which are suitably strict in fairness, but the rule-makers seem to have completely overlooked the biggest problem.

These rules do not add any legislative or regulator restraints on the OTTs or app developers, therefore anyone who believes Maine is taking a notable step in addressing the challenges of the data-sharing economy is fooling themselves. This is a solution, but not to the question which many are asking.

Supreme Court opens the legal floodgates on Apple

Apple is potentially on the verge of facing a tidal wave of lawsuits as the Supreme Court agrees the iLeader is allowed to be challenged on a potential abuse of power in the app economy.

The pivotal case the Supreme Court has been ruling on is Apple vs. Pepper. Robert Pepper and other plaintiffs, various iPhone owners, filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple claiming the firm monopolised the app market through the App Store, with developer licence fees and the 30% commission ultimately driving the price up for consumers.

One the other side of the argument, Apple suggested iPhone owners were actually customers of the developers, while the developers were customers of Apple. This nuanced argument leans on legal precedent set in doctrine known as Illinois Brick where ‘indirect purchasers’ of a product don’t have the power to file antitrust cases. In distancing itself from the end-user in the app economy, Apple was hoping to protect itself.

In the first instance, the district court ruled in favour of Apple, dismissing the case, while the Ninth Circuit Court reversed the decision, ruling that consumers are purchasing from Apple not the developers. The fight was then escalated up to the Supreme Court, with the highest legal battleground in the US ruling 5-4 in favour of the iPhone owners.

What is worth noting is this is not a ruling which states Apple’s App Store is a monopoly, but a decision which allows users to file antitrust lawsuits against the iLeader. It’s a step towards another legal headache but is by no means a sign of guilt.

For Apple, this will come as an unwanted distraction as it attempts to scale it software and services business, in which the App Store is a key cog. The last few years have seen the Apple team attempt to create a more balanced business, with less of a reliance on the staggering hardware segment and reaping the rewards of the blossoming software world.

This decision from the Supreme Court might not assign guilt to Apple, but it certainly creates a monumental migraine. Such is the lawsuit culture in the US it won’t be long before miffed customers just on the bandwagon in pursuit of compensation.

Jaguar Land Rover takes a rewarding approach to the sharing economy

Jaguar Land Rover is testing out a new rewards scheme that will see drivers rewarded with cryptocurrency for sharing data.

Like many automotive companies around the world, Jaguar Land Rover has seemingly identified the future of the industry lies beyond purchasing a vehicle, and this is certainly an interesting approach. In return for sharing data with Jaguar Land Rover, such as traffic congestion or potholes, drivers will earn cryptocurrency.

“The connected car technologies we are developing will be transformative and truly turn your Jaguar or Land Rover into a third space, in addition to your home or office,” said Russell Vickers, Software Architect at Jaguar Land Rover.

“In the future an autonomous car could drive itself to a charging station, recharge and pay, while its owner could choose to participate in the sharing economy – earning rewards from sharing useful data such as warning other cars of traffic jams.”

Partnering with the IOTA Foundation, to make use of distributed ledger technologies, by sharing relevant driving information with either Jaguar Land Rover or a local authority, cryptocurrency will be deposited into the driver’s smart wallet. These rewards could be used for a variety of different things, such as paying for tolls, parking and electric charging.

The technology is currently being trialled at the new Jaguar Land Rover software engineering base in Shannon, Ireland, forming part of part of Jaguar Land Rover’s Destination Zero strategy which aims to achieve zero emissions, zero accidents and zero congestion. Like many manufacturing companies, Jaguar Land Rover is attempting to carve itself a slice of the increasingly profitable sharing economy.

Apple investors hope short-term pain will lead to long-term gain

16% growth in the steadily growing software and services business seems to be enough to rally investor confidence in the face of declining revenues.

Perhaps this is another lesson Apple can teach the world; how to effectively manage investor expectations. Total revenues are declining faster than the service division is growing, but with a 5.4% jump in share price in overnight trading, Apple investors seem to be buying into the short-term pain, long-term gain message from the technology giant.

For some the earning call might have been a shock to the system, explaining the immediate 1.93% drop in share price before markets closed. Total revenues for the quarter ending March 30 declined to $58 billion, down 5.2% year-on-year, while iPhone revenues dropped to $31 billion, a 17.8% dent in the same shipment figures from 2018. But the services division is the glimmer of hope.

“We had great results in a number of areas across our business,” said CEO Tim Cook during the earnings call. “It was our best quarter ever for Services with revenue reaching $11.5 billion.

“Subscriptions are a powerful driver of our Services business. We reached a new high of over 390 million paid subscriptions at the end of March, an increase of 30 million in the last quarter alone. This was also an incredibly important quarter for our Services moving forward.

“In March, we previewed a game-changing array of new services each of them rooted in principles that are fundamentally Apple. They’re easy to use. They feature unmatched attention to detail. They put a premium on user privacy and security. They’re expertly curated personalized and ready to be shared by everyone in your family.”

Although the Apple DNA is not rooted in the software and services world, this has to be the future. Overarching trends are indicating hardware is becoming increasingly commoditized, refreshment cycles are growing, and consumers are less likely to pay a premium for trusted brands. Apple is a company which defied these trends for a period, though not even the iLeader could deny the inevitable.

This is the critical importance of the software and services division; renewed, recurring and new revenues to replace the increasingly difficult, demanding and diversified hardware world, which is epitomised by the dreary global smartphone market.

Although Apple recently decided against releasing shipment figures during its earnings calls, it is still breaking out the revenues associated with products. The iPhone, the segment which drove growth in recent years, declined by 17.8% year-on-year. Part of this can be pinned on changing consumer behaviour, though you also have to look at the individual markets.

In China, Apple has been struggling. Canalys estimate smartphone shipments in the market have declined 3% year-on-year for Q1, though the locals are turning towards domestic brands. In years gone, Apple was a brand seen as somewhat of a status symbol, though it appears this is a concept which is quickly dissipating as the firm only collected 7.4% of market share over the first three months of 2019, a year-on-year decline of 30%.

Total revenues for China have not declined quite as dramatically, a 21.6% year-on-on-year dip to $10.2 billion, though Apple is not alone. OPPO, Xiaomi and Vivo also saw their year-on-year sales dip, with only Huawei coming out on the up. Here, Huawei managed to grow its shipments by 41%, taking 34% of the Chinese market share for Q1.

Another challenging market for Apple has been India. The story here is more forgiving however, as this is a much more cash-conscious market. Apple will of course want to maintain it position as a premium brand, therefore India, despite all the promise it offers, is not tailor made for its ambitions. Until consumer attitudes shift towards more premium devices, Apple will struggle.

Globally the smartphone market has not been helping either. According to Strategy Analytics, shipments decreased 4% year-on-year for the first quarter, with Apple slipping to third place overall.

Market share Q1 2019 Market share Q1 2018
Samsung 21.7% 22.6%
Huawei 17.9% 11.4%
Apple 13% 15.1%
Xiaomi 8.3% 8.2%
OPPO 7.7% 7%

These figures are not the end of the world, but it is a demonstration of consumer trends. There might still be an appetite for purchasing new devices, though there is seemingly a preference for those brands which might are cheaper. Such is the minimal differentiation between brands these days, why spend a premium when there is little need?

However, there is hope for Apple. Consumers might be getting frustrated over a lack of innovation in the hardware space, leading to longer refreshment cycles and a preference towards cheaper or refurbished devices, but the introduction of 5G might well change this.

With 5G devices being launched consumers will have something different to think about. Although 5G-capable devices are certainly not a necessity, and won’t be for a considerable amount of time, the ability to shout about something genuinely new might reinvigorate consumer appetite for purchasing new, and premium, devices. This could work in Apple’s favour.

That said, with Apple unlikely to release a 5G-capable device until 2020, the next few quarters could also demonstrate similar year-on-year declines. Apple seem to be happy to swallow this decline, sacrificing the ‘first to market’ accolade, but this how Apple traditionally approaches the market; it doesn’t aim to be first, but best.

For the moment, and the long-term health of the company, this does not seem to be the central point however. Apple is seemingly attempting to slightly shift the focus of the business, becoming more reliant on software and services, and it does seem to be working. As you can see from the table below, the ratio is shifting.

Product revenue Services Revenue Ratio
Q2 2019 46,565 11,450 81.3/19.7
Q1 2019 73,435 10,875 88.2/12.8
Q4 2018 52,919 9,981 84.1/15.9
Q3 2018 43,717 9,548 82.1/17.9
Q2 2018 51,947 9,190 85/15
Q1 2018 79,768 8,471 90.4/9.6
Q4 2017 44,078 8,501 85.9/16.1

The results in the table above do look quite confusing, though you have to consider that Q4 is usually the period for Apple’s flagship launch, skewing the figures towards the product segment, while Q1 accounts for Christmas, again tilting the figures. The general trend is looking favourable for the software and services division.

The last couple of months have seen Apple release several new services which will continue to bolster this division also. Whether it’s the content streaming service, news subscriptions, credit cards, iTunes or the App Store, the business is driving more investment and attention to this strange new world of software and recurring revenues. The ratio should continue to balance out, though we strongly suspect it will never get close to parity.

Another factor which you have to consider when it comes to the investors is the monetary gain. Yes, the long-term picture is looking healthier, but the firm has also announced it is increasing the dividend by 5%. This will keep cash-conscious and short-term investors happier, encouraging more to hold onto shares despite the downturn in revenues. The team has also announced a share buy-back scheme, up to $75 billion, which could be viewed as another move to protect share price. Although these could be viewed as short-term measures to cool the market, the overall business is looking healthier.

Apple is recentring the business, with more of a focus on software and services. The firm has defied the global hardware trends for some time, but they do seem to be catching up. What is important however is the management team recognising hardware will not be a suitable floatation device for Apple in the long-run. To continue dominating the technology world, Apple will have to spread its wing further into software, just as it is doing.

And perhaps the most critical factor of this transformation; investors seem to have confidence in the team’s ability to evolve.

Uber sheds light on operations ahead of IPO

Uber is not a company which shares huge insights into its business traditionally, but a filing ahead of a planned IPO has unveiled some very interesting details.

In chasing its long-awaiting debut on the New York Stock Exchange, the curtain has been pulled aside and the cogs laid bare. $11.27 billion in revenue across 2018, 42% growth on 2017, net income of $997 million and 91 million active users around the world. This is a company which will attract some interest from the market, though an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.85 billion might concern some.

“Building this platform has required a willingness to challenge orthodoxies and reinvent – sometimes even disrupt – ourselves,” said CEO Dara Khosrowshahi. “Over the last decade, as the needs and preferences of our customers have changed, we changed too. Now, we’re becoming different once again; a public company.”

With an IPO comes a lot more information on a company as executives attempt to woo potential shareholders. The S1 form filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission has unveiled some very interesting details.

Starting with the customer base. Uber currently has 91 million active users across 700 cities around the world, though this number also include Uber Eats. This is a 33% increase compared to the previous year as the numbers show increasing momentum over the last three years.

With a presence in 63 countries, Uber estimates it serves roughly 2% of the population across this footprint, clocking up 26 billion miles in journeys across the year. This might sound like a monstrous number, though it is in fact less than 1% of the total, with the team pointing to significant headroom for growth. In fact, Uber estimates the total addressable market is a $5.7 trillion opportunity in 175 countries.

On the R&D front, Uber has been very aggressive, investing $1.5 billion across 2018 in autonomous vehicles, flying cars, which is known as Uber Elevate, and other ‘technology programs’. The autonomous and flying cars portion of the pie was $457 million. Future tech will clearly play a significant role in the future of the business, with some suggesting the firm will not make a profit until autonomous vehicles have been integrated into operations.

At the end of the final quarter of 2018, Uber estimates there are roughly 3.9 million drivers on the platform, earning $78.2 billion since 2015. In 2018, Gross Bookings grew to $49.8 billion, up 45% from $34.4 billion in 2017, while revenues grew 42% to $11.3 billion. Clearly the drivers are the biggest expense of the business, though with autonomous vehicles there will major challenges alongside the profit gain.

“Along the way to a potential future autonomous vehicle world, we believe that there will be a long period of hybrid autonomy, in which autonomous vehicles will be deployed gradually against specific use cases while Drivers continue to serve most consumer demand,” Uber stated in the filing. “As we solve specific autonomous use cases, we will deploy autonomous vehicles against them.

“Such situations may include trips along a standard, well-mapped route in a predictable environment in good weather. In other situations, such as those that involve substantial traffic, complex routes, or unusual weather conditions, we will continue to rely on Drivers.”

The future might be autonomous, but that dream is likely to be a very long-time away. For drivers that might be worried about becoming redundant, there are some glimmers of hope. Autonomous vehicles will take a long-time to be accepted across the mass market, some customers will refuse to use them in the first instance, while certain situations will continue to demand human intervention; the technology simply isn’t there yet.

While there are rumours about the total valuation of the company, some are suggesting a $100 billion target while others point closer to $120 billion, Uber executives are remaining quiet.