US drives solid Deutsche Telekom numbers but German 5G auction is a drag

German operator group Deutsche Telekom has reported solid Q1 revenue growth, driven largely by T-Mobile US.

As you can see from the table below, revenues and EBITDA all grew nicely in Q1 2019. Profits, however, went in the opposite direction, apparently due to one-off things like the cost of trying to get the merger between TMUS and Sprint approved. Speaking of the US the second table shows just how much of the revenue growth is attributable to TMUS.

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Revenue 19,488 17,924 8.7 75,656
Proportion generated internationally in % 69.0 66.6 2.4p 67.8
EBITDA 6,461 5,269 22.6 21,836
Adjusted EBITDA 6,901 5,549 24.4 23,333
Adjusted EBITDA AL 5,940 5,487 8.3 23,074
Net profit 900 992 (9.3) 2,166
Adjusted net profit 1,183 1,190 (0.6) 4,545
Free cash flowa 2,370 1,382 71.5 6,250
Free cash flow ALa 1,557 1,318 18.1 6,051
Cash capexb 3,827 3,139 21.9 12,492
Cash capexb(before spectrum) 3,682 3,076 19.7 12,223
Net debtc 71,876 50,455 42.5 55,425
Number of employeesd 214,609 216,926 (1.1) 215,675

 

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Germany
Total revenue 5,357 5,325 0.6 21,700
EBITDA 1,946 1,915 1.6 8,012
Adjusted EBITDA 2,114 2,082 1.5 8,610
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,108 2,058 2.4 8,516
Number of employeesa 62,358 64,695 (3.6) 62,621
United States
Total revenue 9,796 8,455 15.9 36,522
US-$ 11,124 10,394 7.0 43,063
EBITDA 3,210 2,360 36.0 9,928
Adjusted EBITDA 3,309 2,332 41.9 10,088
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,679 2,331 14.9 10,084
US-$ 3,042 2,865 6.2 11,901
Europeb
Total revenue 2,891 2,811 2.8 11,885
EBITDA 1,035 905 14.4 3,757
Adjusted EBITDA 1,059 911 16.2 3,880
Adjusted EBITDA AL 945 898 5.2 3,813
Systems Solutions
Order entry 1,609 1,506 6.8 6,776
Total revenue 1,630 1,665 (2.1) 6,936
Adj. EBIT margin (%) (0.2) (2.3) 2.1p 0.5
EBITDA 79 19 n.a. 163
Adjusted EBITDA 125 57 n.a. 429
Adjusted EBITDA AL 92 60 53.3 442

“We got off to a successful start to the year,” said Tim Höttges, CEO of DT. “Deutsche Telekom has much more to offer than just our sensational success in the United States. We are seeing positive trends throughout the Group.”

Not included in his canned comments, but picked up by Reuters, was Höttges inevitable irritation at the amount of cash DT is having to drop on the interminable German 5G spectrum auction. We’re on round 305 of the bidding, believe it or not, and the total pledged has now reached €5,687,520,000. Expect to hear persistent muttering about how that’s money they can’t spend on infrastructure, etc, before long.

Rivals get Rogered in Canadian 600 MHz spectrum auction

Canada made 70 MHz of 600 MHz spectrum available nationally in a recent auction and Rogers got nearly half of it.

Low frequency spectrum such as this is especially handy in huge countries such as Canada due to its long range. Canada split the band, which covers 614-698 MHz including the guard band and duplex gap, into seven chunks of 10 MHz. Each of those in turn was divided into 16 regions, making 112 licenses in total. As you can see in the table below Rogers got 52 of those, dropping C$1.725 billion for the privilege.

Canada 600mhz auction

“We are proud to make leading and meaningful investments to build the 5G ecosystem in Canada and to help drive our country’s global competitive advantage,” said Joe Natale, CEO of Rogers Communications. “This 5G spectrum is a precious and scarce resource that will benefit Canadians and Canadian businesses across the country.”

It’s interesting that this is being positioned as 5G spectrum. Unlike millimetre wave, for example, there’s nothing uniquely 5G about low frequency spectrum, so we can only assume the Canadian government made the spectrum available on the condition that it’s used for 5G. Having said that the quote further down from Shaw appears to contradict that.

In distant second place in terms of spend was Telus. “The acquisition and deployment of this spectrum is critical to the advancement of our national 5G growth strategy and to the global-leading network quality, speed and coverage we provide to Canadians,” said Telus CEO Darren Entwistle. “As the demand for wireless data continues to grow, the acquisition of 600 MHz spectrum will enable Telus to deliver enhanced urban and rural connectivity to our customers on Canada’s fastest and most reliable network.”

Shaw Communications subsidiary Freedom Mobile seemed to get a good deal by paying half as much as Telus for more population coverage. “We have made significant investments to improve the wireless experience for Canadians, becoming a true alternative to the incumbents, with a differentiated value proposition,” said Brad Shaw, Shaw CEO. “The addition of this 600 MHz low band spectrum will not only vastly improve our current LTE service but will also serve as a foundational element of our 5G strategy providing innovative and affordable wireless services to Canadians for years to come.”

Conspicuously absent from the process was Bell, which seems to think it didn’t need any because it’s already sorted for low frequency spectrum. “Bell leverages each new generation of wireless network technology to drive renewed innovation and productivity growth, and with 5G we’ll take connectivity further than ever before with smart cities, connected vehicles and other revolutionary service advancements for both consumers and business users,” said Bell’s CTO Stephen Howe. “Bell looks forward to participating in upcoming federal auctions of the mid band 3500 MHz and high band millimetre wave spectrum that will be required to drive the Fifth Generation of wireless.”

So while Rogers got loads more licenses than anyone else, Freedom Mobile could be viewed at the big winner in terms of cost per population covered. According to Ovum’s WCIS Freedom only accounts for around 5% of Canadian mobile subscribers right now. Judging by the outcome of this auction it has ambitions to significantly increase that share in the 5G era.

TDC hoovers up Danish spectrum in latest auction

The Danish Energy Agency has completed its latest spectrum auction, with TDC running away with the majority of the available assets.

Of the 20 blocks in the 700, 900 and 2300 MHz frequency bands, TDC won 14, the maximum available to the telco at this auction. 3 Denmark acquired two 10 MHz blocks in each of the 700 and 900 MHz bands, while TT Network, Telia and Telenor’s joint venture, two 5 MHz in the 700 MHz and two 10 MHz in the 900 MHz band.

“Several frequency blocks provide higher speed, longer range and stronger indoor coverage, which gives us a unique position to strengthen and develop the best coverage in Denmark,” said TDC CEO Allison Kirkby.

“TDC has connected all over Denmark for almost 140 years, and the new licenses ensure that Danish consumers, companies and society enjoy new experiences, services and the many opportunities that 5G offers.”

With ambitious plans to rollout 5G across Denmark by the end of 2020, this is certainly an aggressive sign of intent from TDC. The telco paid NOK 1.6 billion, roughly €210 million, for its haul, while 3 Denmark paid a total over roughly €68 million. TT Network paid €14 million for its 700 MHz assets and nothing for 900 MHz, though it will be charged with coverage obligations.

As it currently stands, according to Ovum’s WCIS database, TDC is currently the market leader with 42% market share, TT Network controls roughly 40% of subscriptions, while 3 collects the remaining 18%.

While these prices might seem ludicrously cheap in comparison to other spectrum auctions which have been taking place around the bloc, Denmark’s population of 5.8 million ranks it at 111th worldwide, while its land mass ranks at 130th.

DT CEO moans as bidding in German 5G auction tops €1 billion

Just for a change operators are moaning about the amount they have to pay for licensed spectrum, arguing that leaves less cash for infrastructure.

This time the country in question is Germany, which is in the middle of a 5G auction its operators have had a problem with from the start. According to the regulator bidding has already topped a billion euros and, while it still has a way to go before reaching the orgiastic excesses of the Italian one, muttering about the cost has already begun.

Commenting at its recent AGM, DT CEO Tim Höttges made it clear he has a problem with the fact that not all available spectrum is even being offered in the action, which he reckons is bound to have an inflationary effect. “An artificial shortage of public resources is being created, which may push up the price,” he said. “In the end, there is no money for the build-out.”

There was also some general dissent about excessive regulation, ease and speed of access to new cell sites and access regulation for new fibre networks that is considered counterproductive. But the main theme of his speech at the AGM was ‘sharing and participation’ and featured largely generic sentiments about the importance of communications networks and how totally committed to them DT is.

This auction is expected to hit at least three billion euros but, as we saw in Italy, auctions can easily become frenzied. European operators seem to be feeling increasingly inclined to challenge the terms of spectrum auctions but so far their attempts at legal challenges have yielded little. It does seem odd that the German state has held back a bunch of spectrum, however, and it would be interesting to know the rationale for that.

Money is piling up in the US 24 GHz auction

Over 30 companies have put more than $560 million in bid money on the table at FCC’s auction for the 24 GHz frequency. And this is only the beginning.

Following the underwhelming auction of the 28 GHz (dubbed Auction 101) spectrum, which only returned $703 million, the new auction of the 24 GHz (dubbed Auction 102) is heating up quickly. The auction started last Thursday and has gone through 11 rounds of the first phase of the auction, or the “clock phase”, when participants bid on a Partial Economic Area (PEA) blocks. By the end of round 11, the gross proceeds have reached a total amount of $563,427,235. There are still two days, or six more rounds to go, before the winners can move to the next phase of the process.

The “assignment phase” will allow the winners from the first phase to bid for specific frequency licence assignments. The total bid value for the 24 GHz frequencies could go up to between $2.4 billion and $5.6 billion, according to the estimate by Brian Goemmer, founder of the spectrum-tracking company AllNet Insights & Analytics, when he spoke to our sister publication Light Reading.

The key difference the has driven up the interest from the bidders for Auction 102 is the locations where the frequencies are made available. While major metropolises like New York, Los Angeles, or Chicago, were absent from 28 GHz auction, they are all on the current 24 GHz auction together with other major cities that would be the candidates for the 5G services to roll out in the first wave.

Bidders have included AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Sprint and more than 30 other companies. The FCC will announce the winners including those from Auction 101 only after both phases of Auction 102 are completed.

In addition to bidding for mmWave frequencies, operators like AT&T are also actively refarming the lower frequency bands in their possession that are used to provide 3G services. AT&T sent a notice to its customers in February that it will stop 3G only SIM activation, urging customers to move to LTE. The company said “we currently plan to end service on our 3G wireless networks in February 2022.” Specifically the company is planning to refarm the 850 MHz and 1900 MHz frequency bands, saying “it may be necessary for us to turn down one band of our owned and operated 3G network, such as 1900 MHz or 850 MHz service”.

Considering the AT&T only switched its 2G networks off at the beginning of 2017, this is a clear sign that the generational transition of mobile telecom services is accelerating. Earlier in the middle of last year, Verizon confirmed that it will shut down its 3G CDMA networks by the end of 2019. Even earlier at the MWC in 2017, T-Mobile’s CTO Neville Ray said the company was looking to sunset both GSM and WCDMA.

Three UK shows off its new Nokia cloud core

Mobile operator Three UK has upgraded its network with a fully cloud-based 5G-ready core and has started internal trials of the service. It plans to launch 5G later this year.

Three announced that it is testing the world’s first fully cloud-based core network, delivered by Nokia. The software-based core network is 5G ready and is already carrying the ongoing trial for Three’s own staff. The trial is on the 3.4-3.8GHz spectrum Three bought with over £164 million in the auction concluded in April 2018.

The readiness is also achieved on the edge. Three announced that by December 2018, all its mast sites were already connected to the new cloud-based core networks, meaning when 5G is switched on all Three customers would be able to access 5G services, provided they have the 5G-enabled user devices (fixed wireless access modems, or smartphones and tablets).

Another infrastructure update Three announced is the expansion of its datacentre network. The operator used to have three datacentres in London and the Midlands. After the latest upgrade, it now has “21 data centres spread from as far North as Edinburgh to Portsmouth in the South” which are all live and “have been connected up with fibre”, said the statement. In practical terms, the more distributed datacentre network would reduce latency experienced by the users faraway from southern England, giving customers more or less equal user experience.

Indeed, “enhancing its market-leading customer experience and becoming the best loved brand in the UK by its people and customers” is the explicit target of Three’s latest network upgrading. The company reiterated its target to launch commercial 5G service later this year, after committing to invest over £2bn into 5G. “We have been planning our approach to 5G for many years and we are well positioned to lead on this next generation of technology.  These investments are the latest in a series of important building blocks to deliver the best end to end data experience for our customers,” Dave Dyson, Three UK’s CEO, said late last year.

According to the latest telecoms complaints numbers released by Ofcom in January, Three received 4 complaints per 100,000 customers, narrowly behind its mobile competitors EE and O2 (3 complaints each) but way ahead of Vodafone (8).

Germany’s 5G auction has not got off to a flying start

Telefónica Deutschland has filed an urgent appeal against the country’s 5G auction terms. Deutsche Telekom may follow suit.

Telefónica Deutschland was seeking to halt the country’s 5G auction by filing an appeal for injunction at an administrative court in Cologne on Tuesday 5 February. Germany was scheduled to hold the 5G auction by the end of March and was expecting to raise up to €5 billion. The key items on the terms issued by the Federal Network Agency being contested are concerning the coverage requirements, especially the coverage in rural areas and along motorways, and the mandated network sharing with competitors (the so-called domestic roaming).

Telefónica Deutschland argued that the coverage obligations could not be fulfilled with the spectrum at auction, while the frequency in its possession is already being used by other expansion requirements.

“This legal uncertainty is extremely unhelpful for the necessary massive investments in future network expansion. Billions in 5G cannot be invested on the basis of unclear rules. It must be in the interest of all involved that clarity and planning security are created here before an auction,” said Markus Haas, CEO of Telefónica Deutschland.

Telefónica was also unhappy that politicians should demand network sharing between competitors. “We have already invested €20 billion in infrastructure in Germany. We have always said that we will continue to invest if the conditions are right,” Haas told the German publication Handelsblatt late last year. However, as a condition to approve its merger with E-Plus in 2014, EU regulators already required Telefónica to make 30 percent of its capacity available to MVNOs, in this case 1&1 Drillisch.

Meanwhile Telefónica insisted that even if there would be a delay in the auction, “this would not have any influence on a large-scale launch of 5G in Germany. This is because the spectrum available for auction for this purpose will not be allocated to the successful participants until the end of 2020 anyway,” the company said in a statement.

Deutsche Telekom may also consider its position differently now. It first told Handelsblatt “we have not yet made an urgent request, to avoid delaying the auction schedule.” But in light of the new appeal from Telefónica, “we are therefore examining all legal options,” the spokesperson added.

It is not the first time the telcos have resorted to legal measures. By the end of December, Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefónica, as well as the challengers United Internet and Freenet had all filed lawsuits against the government’s rules over the upcoming auction, but none was successful in halting the process.

Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefónica, and United Internet (trading as “1&1 Drillisch”) filed applications before the deadline of 25 January to participate in the upcoming 5G auction.

Ofcom eyes rural coverage for next spectrum auction

With another spectrum auction creeping up on us, Ofcom has started to throw its weight around with the terms and conditions.

While 4G and call coverage is certainly improving in the UK, Ofcom has pointed towards the difference between urban and rural environments as a concern. This is partly to be expected, denser environments are simpler places to improve connectivity and much more commercially attractive, though Ofcom has been banging this drum for a while. We’re not too sure anyone is paying too much attention.

“Mobile coverage has improved across the UK this year, but too many people and businesses are still struggling for a signal,” said Philip Marnick, Ofcom’s Spectrum Group Director. “We’re particularly concerned about mobile reception in rural areas.

“As we release new airwaves for mobile, we’re planning rules that would extend good mobile coverage to where it’s needed. That will help ensure that rural communities have the kind of mobile coverage that people expect in towns and cities, reducing the digital divide.”

Looking at the numbers, the digital divide is no-where near the same problem as faced in other places around the world, but it is present. Almost all homes and offices can get a good, indoor 4G signal from at least one operator; while 77% are covered by all four networks, up from 65% a year earlier. 91% of the UK’s geography has a good 4G mobile internet signal from at least one operator, up from 80% last year, while 66% has ‘complete coverage’ from all four operators.

These numbers are heading in the right direction, though they only tell part of the story. 83% of urban homes and offices have complete 4G coverage, the figure for rural premises is 41%, while there are some remote parts of the country where there is no coverage at all.

The next auction will take place in late 2019 or 2020, auctioning off the 700 MHz and the 3.6 GHz – 3.8 GHz bands. Although the mid-range spectrum will be the 5G prize to chase, the 700 MHz could prove useful for providing good-quality mobile coverage, both indoors and across very wide areas, including the countryside. This is where Ofcom will start throwing its weight around. The winning bids will have to:

  • Extend good, outdoor data coverage to at least 90% of the UK’s entire land area within four years of the award
  • Improve coverage for at least 140,000 homes and offices which they do not already cover
  • Provide coverage from at least 500 new mobile mast stations in rural areas

With telcos revving themselves up for every opportunity to grab as much of the valuable and limited resource as possible, Ofcom can dictate the playing field a bit. Those who want spectrum will have to play by the watchdog’s rules and start offering bufferless cat videos to farmers.

On the broadband side of things, there does also seem to be improvements. The number of homes which cannot receive 10 Mbps, the Ofcom threshold for acceptable broadband, has fallen to 2%. However, this still leaves 677,000 homes and offices without decent broadband, 496,000 of which are in the countryside. The last push for any project is always the hardest, though customers will have the universal broadband service to rely on, forcing telcos to extend their network, should they not be willing to do it themselves. This service will come into play during 2020.

On the opposite end of the scale, ultrafast broadband has improved, it’s now accessible to 50% of British homes and offices, while 1.8 million premises now have access to ‘full-fibre’ broadband. This is still very poor in comparison to other nations across Europe, though it is a step in the right direction.

Italy spectrum auction looks like a cheap bit of business – RBC

A research note from RBC, the Royal Bank of Canada, suggests Italian telcos in Italy might not have overpaid that much in the grand scheme of things.

This is not to say that the spectrum was cheap, but there is consistency is the rising price of that precious commodity around the world. Italy might have looked expensive to start with, but in comparison to other markets, it is a bit of a steal.

“Italy’s auction caught investors’ attention with a high price for Mid Band 5G,” the note states. “While operators have been quick to decry this as ‘artificial scarcity’, subsequent results appear to validate the Italian result. Sweden’s Low Band was a 22% premium to Italy; while the Australian regional 10-year Mid Band was a 32% premium to Italy’s 19-year Mid Band.”

Throughout the process, the Italian government managed to trouser €6.5 billion through various auctions, around three times more than was expected at the start of the process. It seems the introduction of a fourth MNO did wonders for the governments bank account.

That said, the Italian job might not be that expensive after all. While the 200 MHz of Mid band (3.7 GHz) which sold for €0.36 per MHz/Pop, Sweden saw 40 MHz of Low Band sell for €0.68 per MHz/Pop, 22% higher than in Italy and in Australia the 10-year Mid band licences sell for US$0.54 per MHz/Pop (US$0.56 incl tax), a 32% premium to the Italian 19-year Mid band.

Compared to previous auctions, the prices are starting to increase. South Korea’s 3.5 GHz and auction totalled $3.3bn for an average of $0.19 per MHz/Pop, while in the UK, 2.3 GHz sold for £0.08 /MHz/pop and 3.4 GHz for £0.12 /MHz/pop.

Looking forward, Germany is about to begin its mid band auctions, with the government expecting to raise between €4-5 billion, as is France. Regulator Arcep has already stated it want to try and avoid replicating the expensive prices elsewhere, promising cheaper prices in return for rollout commitments. Finally, the UK will have low and mid band auctions in late 2019.

Vodafone is thought to have the highest level of exposure to the high spectrum costs, with Germany and the UK on the radar for the firm, though RBC estimates Orange will have to write a cheque for €2.1 billion, while Telefonica will have to find more than €4.5 billion for the delayed Spanish auction and the battles in South America.

Treasury ministers will be rubbing their hands together at the prospect.

FCC sets the rules for third mmWave auction

The FCC has unveiled the rules for the next mmWave auction, set to take place in second half of 2019, for airwaves in the 37 GHz, 39 GHz and 47 GHz spectrum bands.

This will be the third mmWave auction to take place in the US, with the scrap for 28 GHz band spectrum currently underway, and the 24 GHz band auction to follow. While there are numerous different rules which will inevitably lead to squabbling, this is also the second incentive-based auction from the FCC, as the agency looks to promote contiguous blocks of spectrum.

To ensure this is a smooth process the block size will be increased to 100 megahertz across all three spectrum bands, while existing license holders will be afforded the opportunity to ‘rationalise’ their existing holdings. Whether anyone actually chooses to relinquish their assets during this process remains to be seen, though budget has been made available for compensation.

As with most other auctions, this one will take place over two phases. The first will be the pay-to-play section, before moving onto the allocation of specific spectrum.

“Pushing more spectrum into the commercial marketplace is a key component of our 5G FAST plan to maintain American leadership in the next generation of wireless connectivity,” said FCC Chairman Ajit Pai.

“Currently, we’re conducting an auction of 28 GHz band spectrum, to be followed by a 24 GHz band auction. And today, we are taking a critical step towards holding an auction of the Upper 37, 39, and 47 GHz bands in 2019. These and other steps will help us stay ahead of the spectrum curve and allow wireless innovation to thrive on our shores.”

While mmWave has been a very consistent buzzword for the telco industry over the last couple of years, industry lobby group GSMA feels there is a very good reason for this.

In its latest report, the GSMA suggests unlocking the right spectrum for to deliver innovative 5G services across different industry verticals could add $565 billion to global GDP and $152 billion in tax revenue from 2020 to 2034. For the GSMA, it’s not just about faster, bigger and better, but delivering services which the telcos are not able to today. mmWave is of course crucial to ensuring the 5G jigsaw all fits together appropriately.

“The global mobile ecosystem knows how to make spectrum work to deliver a better future,” said Brett Tarnutzer, Head of Spectrum at the GSMA.

“Mobile operators have a history of maximising the impact of our spectrum resources and no one else has done more to transform spectrum allocations into services that are changing people’s lives. Planning spectrum is essential to enable the highest 5G performance and government backing for mmWave mobile spectrum at WRC-19 will unlock the greatest value from 5G deployments for their citizens.”