Telcos complain about auction as German regulator bags €6.5bn

With 41 blocks available in the 2 GHz and 3.6 GHz bands, this spectrum auction has proved to be a busy one for Germany, but it certainly is a profitable one also.

Lasted 52 days and consisting of hundreds of different bids in what appeared to be a frustrating process, the German regulator will pocket €6.5 billion. It seems Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone were having the biggest feud, sending the total expenditure considerably north of the €3-5 billion expectation.

Sitting at the top of the pile, Deutsche Telekom spent €2.2 billion, while Vodafone contributed €1.9 billion. Telefonica spent €1.4 billion and up-start Drillisch wrote a cheque for €1.1 billion as it searches for a means to break the dominance of the three MNOs.

“Vodafone is committed to bring the full benefits of a digital society to Germany through our gigabit network including 5G,” said Vodafone Group CEO Nick Read. “We believe it is important to have a balance between the price paid for spectrum and our strong desire to create an inclusive society through investment in mobile network coverage.”

And while Read’s comments are as bland as you would expect for a press statement, there have been grumblings elsewhere over price. Deutsche Telekom has said the process has left a ‘bitter taste’.

“The network rollout in Germany has suffered a significant setback. The price could have been much lower,” said Dirk Wössner, Member of the Board of Management of Telekom Deutschland.

“Once again, the spectrum in Germany is much more expensive than in other countries. Network operators now lack the money to expand their networks. With the auction proceeds one could have built approximately 50,000 new mobile sites and close many white spots.”

Deutsche Telekom has secured 4 frequency blocks in the 2 GHz band and 9 frequency packages in the 3.6 GHz band. Vodafone on the other hand has purchased four different blocks in 2 GHz, and one continuous block of 90 MHz in the 3.6 GHz spectrum band. Telefonica collected two paired blocks in the 2 GHz band and seven unpaired blocks in 3.6 GHz.

Although Telefonica feels it can maintain its market share leadership position in mobile following this auction, it also felt the need to vent over a frustrating couple of months.

“We remain convinced that frequency allocation via auction was counterproductive for the expansion of mobile communications in Germany,” said Valentina Daiber, Chief Officer for Legal & Corporate Affairs at Telefónica Deutschland.

“The course of the auction showed that the design as well as the insufficient amount of available frequencies drove up the costs. From the consumer’s point of view and for Germany as a business location, these investment funds would be much better spent on network expansion.”

The telcos will certainly be glad they have a bit of breathing room from the auction process now, though the relationship between the regulator and industry seems to be turning very sour.

US drives solid Deutsche Telekom numbers but German 5G auction is a drag

German operator group Deutsche Telekom has reported solid Q1 revenue growth, driven largely by T-Mobile US.

As you can see from the table below, revenues and EBITDA all grew nicely in Q1 2019. Profits, however, went in the opposite direction, apparently due to one-off things like the cost of trying to get the merger between TMUS and Sprint approved. Speaking of the US the second table shows just how much of the revenue growth is attributable to TMUS.

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Revenue 19,488 17,924 8.7 75,656
Proportion generated internationally in % 69.0 66.6 2.4p 67.8
EBITDA 6,461 5,269 22.6 21,836
Adjusted EBITDA 6,901 5,549 24.4 23,333
Adjusted EBITDA AL 5,940 5,487 8.3 23,074
Net profit 900 992 (9.3) 2,166
Adjusted net profit 1,183 1,190 (0.6) 4,545
Free cash flowa 2,370 1,382 71.5 6,250
Free cash flow ALa 1,557 1,318 18.1 6,051
Cash capexb 3,827 3,139 21.9 12,492
Cash capexb(before spectrum) 3,682 3,076 19.7 12,223
Net debtc 71,876 50,455 42.5 55,425
Number of employeesd 214,609 216,926 (1.1) 215,675

 

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Germany
Total revenue 5,357 5,325 0.6 21,700
EBITDA 1,946 1,915 1.6 8,012
Adjusted EBITDA 2,114 2,082 1.5 8,610
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,108 2,058 2.4 8,516
Number of employeesa 62,358 64,695 (3.6) 62,621
United States
Total revenue 9,796 8,455 15.9 36,522
US-$ 11,124 10,394 7.0 43,063
EBITDA 3,210 2,360 36.0 9,928
Adjusted EBITDA 3,309 2,332 41.9 10,088
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,679 2,331 14.9 10,084
US-$ 3,042 2,865 6.2 11,901
Europeb
Total revenue 2,891 2,811 2.8 11,885
EBITDA 1,035 905 14.4 3,757
Adjusted EBITDA 1,059 911 16.2 3,880
Adjusted EBITDA AL 945 898 5.2 3,813
Systems Solutions
Order entry 1,609 1,506 6.8 6,776
Total revenue 1,630 1,665 (2.1) 6,936
Adj. EBIT margin (%) (0.2) (2.3) 2.1p 0.5
EBITDA 79 19 n.a. 163
Adjusted EBITDA 125 57 n.a. 429
Adjusted EBITDA AL 92 60 53.3 442

“We got off to a successful start to the year,” said Tim Höttges, CEO of DT. “Deutsche Telekom has much more to offer than just our sensational success in the United States. We are seeing positive trends throughout the Group.”

Not included in his canned comments, but picked up by Reuters, was Höttges inevitable irritation at the amount of cash DT is having to drop on the interminable German 5G spectrum auction. We’re on round 305 of the bidding, believe it or not, and the total pledged has now reached €5,687,520,000. Expect to hear persistent muttering about how that’s money they can’t spend on infrastructure, etc, before long.

Germany’s 5G auction has not got off to a flying start

Telefónica Deutschland has filed an urgent appeal against the country’s 5G auction terms. Deutsche Telekom may follow suit.

Telefónica Deutschland was seeking to halt the country’s 5G auction by filing an appeal for injunction at an administrative court in Cologne on Tuesday 5 February. Germany was scheduled to hold the 5G auction by the end of March and was expecting to raise up to €5 billion. The key items on the terms issued by the Federal Network Agency being contested are concerning the coverage requirements, especially the coverage in rural areas and along motorways, and the mandated network sharing with competitors (the so-called domestic roaming).

Telefónica Deutschland argued that the coverage obligations could not be fulfilled with the spectrum at auction, while the frequency in its possession is already being used by other expansion requirements.

“This legal uncertainty is extremely unhelpful for the necessary massive investments in future network expansion. Billions in 5G cannot be invested on the basis of unclear rules. It must be in the interest of all involved that clarity and planning security are created here before an auction,” said Markus Haas, CEO of Telefónica Deutschland.

Telefónica was also unhappy that politicians should demand network sharing between competitors. “We have already invested €20 billion in infrastructure in Germany. We have always said that we will continue to invest if the conditions are right,” Haas told the German publication Handelsblatt late last year. However, as a condition to approve its merger with E-Plus in 2014, EU regulators already required Telefónica to make 30 percent of its capacity available to MVNOs, in this case 1&1 Drillisch.

Meanwhile Telefónica insisted that even if there would be a delay in the auction, “this would not have any influence on a large-scale launch of 5G in Germany. This is because the spectrum available for auction for this purpose will not be allocated to the successful participants until the end of 2020 anyway,” the company said in a statement.

Deutsche Telekom may also consider its position differently now. It first told Handelsblatt “we have not yet made an urgent request, to avoid delaying the auction schedule.” But in light of the new appeal from Telefónica, “we are therefore examining all legal options,” the spokesperson added.

It is not the first time the telcos have resorted to legal measures. By the end of December, Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefónica, as well as the challengers United Internet and Freenet had all filed lawsuits against the government’s rules over the upcoming auction, but none was successful in halting the process.

Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefónica, and United Internet (trading as “1&1 Drillisch”) filed applications before the deadline of 25 January to participate in the upcoming 5G auction.

German regulator effectively confirms IBM/T-Systems talks

As it does from time-to-time, German regulator Bundeskartellamt has published a list of mergers and acquisitions which is evaluating. IBM and T-Systems are lucky enough to make the list.

Reports of the discussions emerged over the weekend, with IBM rumoured to be considering taking the mainframe service business unit off the hands of the struggling T-Systems. Although the specifics of the deal are not completely clear right now, it would hardly be a surprise to learn T-Systems is attempting to slim the business down.

On the Bundeskartellamt website, there is a page which lists some of the main transactions which the regulator is considering in its role as merger overseer. These are mainly deals which are in the ‘first phase’ and usually passed unless there are any competition concerns. Although the description is not detailed, it lists IBM will be acquiring certain assets from T-Systems.

The news was initially broken by German-language newspaper Handelsblatt, quoting an internal email which suggested 400 employees would be transferred to the IBM business in May. Subsequently IT-Zoom has suggested IBM will be paying €860 million for the business unit.

The origins of such a deal can only lead back to one place; the office of T-Systems CEO Adel Al-Saleh. Al-Saleh was initially brought to the firm, having previously worked at IBM for almost two decades, to trim costs and salvage a business unit which, recently, has been nothing but bad news for parent company Deutsche Telekom. Aside from this saga, job cuts of roughly 10,000 have been announced since Al-Saleh’s appointment.

Confirmed back in June, the 10,000 job cuts were a result of a long-time losing battle to the more agile and innovative players such as AWS and Microsoft. Al-Saleh’s objective was to trim the fat, focusing on the more lucrative contracts, as well as more profitable, emerging segments of the IT and telco world.

While T-Systems and IBM do already have an established relationship, it seems options are running thin to make this business work effectively. With headcount going down from 37,000 to 27,000, its footprint dropping from 100 cities to 10 and this deal working through the cogs as we speak, Deutsche Telekom employees will hope this is the last of the bad news. Whether Al-Saleh feels this is enough restructuring to make the business work remains to be seen.

DT and Ericsson hit 40 Gbps over millimeter wave

Operator group Deutsche Telekom and kit vendor Ericsson got together in Athens to claim a new record for wireless backhaul.

Right now you’re apparently looking at a maximum throughput of 10 Gbps (gigabits per second) from your wireless backhaul. At a DT service centre in Athens the two companies teamed up to quadruple that threshold using millimeter wave over a distance of 1.4 kilometers. The aim of the demo was to prove the commercial viability of future wireless backhaul technology.

“A high-performance transport connection will be key to support high data throughput and enhanced customer experience in next-generation networks,” said Alex Jinsung Choi, SVP Strategy & Technology Innovation at DT. “While fiber is an important part of our portfolio, it is not the only option for backhaul. Together with our partners, we have demonstrated fiber-like performance is also possible with wireless backhauling/X-Haul solutions. This offers an important extension of our portfolio of high-capacity, high-performance transport options for the 5G era.”

“Microwave continues to be a key technology for mobile transport by supporting the capacity and latency requirements of 4G and future 5G networks. Our joint innovation project shows that higher capacity microwave backhaul will be an important enabler of high-quality mobile broadband services when 5G becomes a commercial reality.”

In the light of AT&T’s absurd rebranding of LTE-A as 5Ge it’s good to see some concrete, substantial 5G progress being demonstrated. 5G will require a lot more base stations and small cells to work, which means a lot more backhaul. So we’re likely to see a lot more of this sort of thing in the coming months and years.

German Gov told to sell DT stake

The Chief of the Monopolies Commission in Germany has suggested the German government should sell its stake in Deutsche Telekom over conflict of interest fears.

Achim Wamback, the President of the Monopolies Commission, has made the call on the grounds the German government is currently sitting in a suspect position on both sides of the fence, according to local newspaper Wirtschafts Woche. Although there is no suggestion this position is currently being abused, owning a notable share of a major telco, while simultaneously exercising regulatory power over the industry could lead to market abuse. With the 5G auction set to take place in the immediate future, Wamback’s call will make for awkward reading in the Bundestag.

As it stands, the German government owns roughly 31% of DT, the profits of which will contribute to national coffers, meaning there is less of an emphasis on taxing the general public to raise funds. This will only be a minor impact on the taxation strategies, but every little helps for a governing party which has struggled to maintain power and influence in recent years.

If you try to take a purely impartial approach to the situation, you can see Wamback’s point; this is a conflict of interest. Nationalised businesses are always a talking point for the more left-leaning members of society, but they are deeply unpopular when things are going well in the economy.

This is not the first time the German government’s position in DT has been called into question however. During 2017, when Chancellor Angela Merkel’s grip on government was starting to loosen following federal elections, two potential coalition partners pushed for the sale as well. The Freedom Party and the Greens were unsuccessful with their ambition then, though the idea was never quashed.

Part or fully state-owned telcos are certainly not an unusual fixture on the global telco scene, though you have to question whether it aligns with the pro-competition sensitivities of the European Union.

Europe is losing in the race to secure digital riches – DT CEO

Despite politicians around the world declaring the importance of technology and insisting their nation is one of the world leaders in digital, Deutsche Telekom CEO Tim Hottges does not believe Europe is competing with the US and Asia.

This might seem like somewhat of a bold statement, but it is entirely true. The US, led by the internet players of Silicon Valley, have dominated the consumer technology world, while the China and Japan’s heavyweight industries have conquered the industrialised segments. Europe might have a few shining lights but is largely left to collect the scraps when the bigger boys are done feasting on the bonanza.

“Europe lost the first half of the digitalisation battle,” said Hottges, speaking at Orange’s Show Hello. “The second half of the battle is about data, the cloud and the AI-based services.”

In all fairness to the continent, there has been the odd glimmer of hope. Spotify emerged from Sweden, Google’s Deepmind was spun-out of Oxford University, while Nokia and Ericsson are reconfirming their place in the world. There is occasionally the odd suggestion Europe has the potential to offer something to the global technology conversation.

What has been achieved so far cannot be undone. The US and Asia are dominant in the technology world and Europe will have to accept its place in the pecking order. That said, lessons must be learnt to ensure the next wave of opportunity does not pass the continent by. A new world order is being written as we speak, and it is being written in binary.

If Europe is to generate momentum through the AI-orientated economy, it will have to bolster the workforce, create the right regulatory landscape (a common moan from the DT boss), but also make sure the raw materials are available. If data is cash, Europeans are paupers.

As it stands, less than 4% of the world’s data is stored in the European market, according to Hottges. This is the raw material required to create and train complex, AI-driven algorithms and business models. If European data is constantly being exported to other continents, other companies and economies will feel the benefits. More of an effort needs to be made to ensure the right conditions are in place to succeed.

Conveniently, the data collected through Orange’s and DT’s new smart speaker ecosystem will be retained within the borders of the European Union. There need to be more examples like this, forcing partners to comply with data residency requirements, as opposed to taking the easy route and whisking information off to far away corners of the world.

Another interesting statistic to consider is the number of qualified developers in Europe. Recent research from Atomico claims there are currently 5.7 million developers across the continent, up 200,000 over the last 12 months, compared to 4.4 million in the US. Everyone talks about the skills gap, though it seems Europe is in a better position than the US if you look at the number of professional developers alone.

Europe has lost the first skirmishes of the digital economy, and to be fair, the fight wasn’t even close. However, the cloud-oriented, intelligent world of tomorrow offers plenty more opportunities.

Netherlands falls to three MNOs as Europe approves T-Mobile/Tele2 deal

The European Commission has officially approved Deutsche Telekom’s acquisition of Tele2’s Dutch business, reducing the number of MNOs in the country from four to three.

For many through the continent this will be seen as progress, as the European Commission has previously viewed reducing the number of MNOs in a single market below four as sacrilege. With telcos across Europe looking for ways to justify the vast expenditures expected for 5G and the full-fibre diets demanding by governments in the fixed space, the prospect of market consolidation is an interesting one.

What is worth noting is this is a relatively minor acquisition. Merging DT’s Dutch business and Tele2’s only adds a relatively small increment, roughly 5%, to the newly merged business. T-Mobile NL would still remain in third position with a market share of 25%, while the European Commission has also questioned Tele2 NL’s role as an important competitive force in the Dutch market. Despite these conditions, this will certainly be viewed as progress for those who sit in the pro-consolidation camp.

“Access to affordable and good quality mobile telecom services is essential in a modern society,” said Commissioner Margrethe Vestager. “After thoroughly analysing the specific role of T-Mobile NL and the smaller Tele2 NL in the Dutch retail mobile market, our investigation found that the proposed acquisition would not significantly change the prices or quality of mobile services for Dutch consumers.”

Through the five month investigation, Vestager and her team decided the proposed merger was unlikely to lead to significant price increases due to the limited incremental impact Tele2 would have on the T-Mobile NL business, the transaction would not increase the likelihood of coordinated behaviour between mobile network operators as there is sufficient enough difference between and the business models, and finally, conditions for virtual mobile network operators due to the proposed merger would not have a serious impact on the level of competition. In short, dropping from four to three operators would not negatively impact the consumer.

Here is the question though; will this decision have any material impact on consolidation decisions elsewhere? Perhaps it might, but we suspect the European Commission will stick to the three operator rule where competition is more intense.

In listing its reasons for approving the deal, Vestager effectively said that Tele2’s Dutch business was small and irrelevant enough to the other players that it being swallowed up by one of them would not make any material impact on competition. In most other markets around Europe the fourth players have much more of a foothold in the market.

Take the UK for instance. Here, Three is the smallest of the MNOs, controlling roughly a 15% market share. On its own it can provide suitable competition to the three larger players, though if it was acquired the gain in total subscribers would have a material impact on market share. This alteration in the status quo could lead to the anti-competition doomsday scenario, or at least this is what the European Commission might believe.

Despite consolidation being a positive for the industry, scale means confidence to invest, operational efficiencies, notable procurement benefits and greater ability to generate ROI, we suspect the European Commission will stick to its four operator rule for most markets. The only exceptions will be in cases like this one, where the fourth player controls a minor market share which would have no material impact on a competitors standing in the market.

That said, this is a step forward for the stubborn European Commission.

DT/Tele2 tie up could smooth path to industry consolidation

For years the telco industry has condemned the EU’s approach to competition, though green-lighting DT’s acquisition of Tele2’s Dutch business could indicate a loosening grip on the idea of four operators.

According to the European Commission, each market should ideally have four operators to ensure the consumer has choice, though this has been challenged in recent years due to market economics. In short, the telcos do not feel they are making enough money to continue network investments and challenge the OTTs in capturing the digital economy fortunes. One way to balance the equation is consolidation, but regulators have consistently resisted. This might be changed according to reports in Reuters.

DT has been attempting to swallow up Tele2’s Dutch business to create a more competitive threat to the number one and two in the market, KPN and VodafoneZiggo. However, such an acquisition would decrease the number of national telcos from four to three, sacrilege in the eyes of the Brussels bureaucrats, though this vice-like persistence with four telcos might be loosening.

The decision is due on November 30, though rumours are circulating that a decision has been made and it will be in favour of the Germans. DT’s argument has been combined company would only have a 25% market share, still a way off KPN and VodafoneZiggo, therefore it would still have to challenge on price, and it seems the European Commission is buying the stance.

For rest of the telcos around Europe, executives are bound to be eagerly awaiting the official decision. Precedent is everything when it comes to regulations, competition and acquisitions. Merging these two players will give lawyers something to point to and ammunition to fight for market consolidation.

This has been a bugbear of the European telcos for some time; scale means investment. The larger the subscription bases of the telcos, the safer they will feel in terms of splashing the cash and upgrading networks. It might of course be nothing but a rouse to make more money and realise operational efficiencies, but when you look at the size of telcos on other continents you can see the argument; European telcos simply cannot compete with those in North America or Asia.

Of course what is worth noting is this is nothing more than a report for the moment. The official decision will emerge over the next few days, though the telco industry might finally be getting some ammunition to fight back against the OTTs.

DT writes €20bn cheque to target 99% 5G coverage by 2021

Deutsche Telekom has unveiled a ‘plan’ to make 5G a reality, including a commitment to spend €20 billion by the end of 2021 to roll it out.

Should the plan prove to be a success, DT plans to have 5G to 99% of the population by 2025, while geographical coverage would be 90%. The team believe these coverage ambitions are achievable for 4G by 2021.

“The digitalization of Germany is a challenge for our society as a whole,” said CEO Tim Höttges. “Our part is the networks. We take this responsibility seriously, which is why we are focusing on investment, innovation, and partnerships.”

To fuel the 5G ambition, DT has connected 22,000 of the 27,000 mobile base stations with fiber, and will be adding at least 2,000 each year through to 2021 to take the total up to 36,000. Not all of these stations will be equipped with 5G equipment to start with, though this is a part of the plan which is murkier. The less details available, the less accountable DT becomes we suppose.

5G is only part of the connectivity plan, with the fixed network getting its own upgrades. One of the first aspects of the plan is to initially install fiber to the curb, before extending the fiber to the home at a later date. This approach has been criticised, though DT has pointed out it is a fairer means to improve connectivity for a greater number of residents across the country.

“Of course we could have installed fiber to the home directly, but due to the shortage of underground construction capacity and the high investments needed, we’d only be serving 20% of households at most, instead of the 80% we do now,” said Walter Goldenits, CTO at Telekom Deutschland.

Progress is being made in Germany, the team have laid the 500,000th kilometre of fiber across the country this week, though it does still lag behind leaders in the European market. DT claims 250 Mbps are already available to around ten million households, while the ambition is to expand this footprint to 28 million by the end of 2019.