Vodafone ditches Kiwis and cuts dividend in search of ‘financial headroom’

Vodafone has announced the sale of its New Zealand arm and a cut to the dividend as the firm searches for breathing room on the spreadsheets amid its Liberty Global acquisition and annual loss.

Such is the precarious position Vodafone is under, a cut to the dividend was expected by many analysts, though the sale of its Kiwi business unit compounds the misery. Facing various challenges around the world, including expensive spectrum auctions in Europe, the telco giant is searching for financial relief, though whether these moves prove to be adequate remains to be seen.

“We are executing our strategy at pace and have achieved our guidance for the year, with good growth in most markets but also increased competition in Spain and Italy and headwinds in South Africa,” said Group CEO Nick Read. “These challenges weighed on our service revenue growth during the year, and together with high spectrum auction costs have reduced our financial headroom.

“The Group is at a key point of transformation – deepening customer engagement, accelerating digital transformation, radically simplifying our operations, generating better returns from our infrastructure assets and continuing to optimise our portfolio. To support these goals and to rebuild headroom, the Board has made the decision to rebase the dividend, helping us to reduce debt and deliver to the low end of our target range in the next few years.”

While the news of a dividend cut saw share price drop by more than 5%, trading prior to markets opening has seen a slight recovery (at the time of writing). The dividend cut is not as drastic as some had forecast, down to 9 euro cents from 15, while an additional €2.1 billion from the New Zealand sale will provide some relief.

Looking at the financials for the year ending March 31, group revenues declined by 6.2% to €43.666 billion, while the operating loss stood at a weighty €7.644 billion. This compares to a profit of €2.788 billion across the previous year, though there are several different factors to take into consideration such as the merger with Idea Cellular in India and a change in accounting standards.

The loss might shock some for the moment, though this is likely to balance out in the long-run. In changing from the IAS18 accounting standard to IFRS15, Vodafone is altering how it is realising revenue on the spreadsheets. From here on forward, revenues are only reported as each stage of the contract is completed. It might be a shock for the moment, but more revenue is there to be realised in the future.

Although these numbers are the not the most positive, there is a hope on the horizon.

“The dividend cut is a massive blow for investors, while the results highlight the on-going challenges facing the company in its quest to turnaround its fortunes,” said Paolo Pescatore of analyst firm PP Foresight. “All hopes seem to be pinned on 5G, but the business model is unproven. Huge investment is required to roll out these new ultra-fast networks, but it comes at a cost.”

On the 5G front, Vodafone UK has announced it will go live on July 3, initially launching in seven cities, with an additional 12 live by the end of the year. Vodafone will also offer 5G roaming in the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain over the summer period. Interestingly enough, the firm has said it will price 5G at the levels as 4G.

Although this is a minor consolation set against the backdrop of a monstrous loss, it is at least something to hold onto. As it stands, Vodafone is winning the 5G race in the UK, while the roaming claim is another which gives the firm something to shout about. Vodafone is not in a terrible position, though many will be wary of the daunting spectrum auctions it faces over the coming months.

Vodafone share price tumbles on dividend cut report

Share price in Vodafone has taken a 4.3% hit during the opening hours of trading as rumours over a cut in dividend emerge.

Although several telcos have veered away from the dangers of cutting a dividend, The Sunday Times is reporting Vodafone is on the verge of making the announcement. With fourth quarter results scheduled for tomorrow morning, the team only has a short period of time to fend off unwanted questions.

Vodafone is currently one of the most attractive investments in the FTSE thanks to higher than average dividend payments to investors, though that might all be about to change. Some analyst firms are suggesting the cut could be as large as 50%, taking the dividend down from 15 pence per share to 7.5 pence. At the time of writing, Vodafone’s share price had declined 4.53% from the closing price on Friday afternoon.

The Vodafone share price has been steadily declining over the last 12-18 months, though any more downward movement could take it to the lowest since the fallout of the financial crisis in 2008.

The cause of the dividend cut is most likely to be due to the demands of 5G deployments across Europe. Although Vodafone is in a very strong position in multiple markets across the continent, this creates a difficult position when it comes to funding the funds to fuel future-proof infrastructure investments.

The challenge which Vodafone is specifically facing is spectrum. With auctions in Italy and Germany set to push the price of spectrum further north, telcos in the markets will be scrapping and scraping to secure a war chest deep enough.

It might not be the most exciting part of the mobile connectivity segment, but spectrum is one of the most critical. The assets could potentially define the success of a telco in the future 5G world, and numerous executives have already bemoaned the process of securing the frequencies. Some are complaining of the scarcity, and others of the price. Spectrum is central to 5G plans, and it’s not cheap.

This current predicament has been predicted however. Back in January, RBC Capital Markets suggested Vodafone might be in a precarious position due to years of restructuring, M&A, as well as exposure in up-coming spectrum auctions.

“Its underlying markets remain ‘challenging’ and it has very little financial headroom despite synergies and cost cutting,” the investor note stated. “Vodafone has options with its towers but faces a threat from 5G spectrum. The dividend is unsustainable even before we consider a macro downturn.”

RBC estimated securing the relevant licences could cost Vodafone between €4.5 billion and €12 billion, and even suggested investors should sell Vodafone shares ahead of a potential dip.

These are of course rumours for the moment, though there is enough support to justify the dip in share price. Only tomorrow’s results will tell.

Vodafone Shareprice

UK and Latin America gave Telefónica a steady Q1

Telefónica’s otherwise flat quarter was bolstered by strong performance in its UK and Latin America South units, which delivered 5.3% and 15.2% organic growth rates, taking the group level growth rate to 3.8%.

Telefónica reported its first-quarter results, with the total revenue at €12.611 billion, an increase of 3.8% in organic terms. This means adjustments were made to the reported numbers considering impacts of exchange rate moves, regulation and reporting standard changes, and special factors, for example adjustment made to the Argentina numbers on account of the hyper-inflation. Otherwise, the total revenue would have reported at € 11.979, or a 1.7% decline from a year ago. The quarterly operating income before depreciation and amortisation (OIBDA) reached €4.264 billion, up by 10.3%; and the net income grew by 10.6% to reach €926 million.

The Telefónica group is now serving a total of 332 million subscriber accounts (“accesses”), 6 million less than a year ago. The total mobile accesses by the end of the quarter stood at 267 million, down by 4 million from a year ago. But the good news for Telefónica is that it actually grew the contract customer base by 7.5 million over Q1 last year, meaning the loss is mainly on the pre-paid market, down by 11.5 million. It also grew its fixed broadband (including FTTx and cable) customer base by 2.1 million over the course of the year.

“The first quarter results showed a significant improvement in revenue growth trends and double-digit growth in net income and earnings per share. Strong cash generation, which was three times higher than the figure reported in the first quarter of the previous year, allowed for an acceleration in debt reduction, for the 8th consecutive quarter, further strengthening our balance sheet,” commented José María Álvarez-Pallete, Chairman and CEO of Telefónica. “We have started the year by extending our leadership in fibre and 4G deployment, testing new 5G capabilities and making progress in the UNICA virtualisation programme, allowing us to continue gaining customer relevance through better experience and higher average lifetime.”

Ángel Vilá, Chief Operating Officer of Telefónica, introduced the Q1 results and its outlook to 2019 annual outlook in more detail in the video clip at the bottom (in Spanish, with English subtitle).

While the its two biggest markets, Spain and Brazil, managed to stay stable, delivering modest organic growth of 0.3% and 1.7% respective (+0.3% and -5.2% in reported terms), Telefónica’s UK business registered a strong 5.3% organic growth to reach €1.67 billion (£1.47 billion). Excluding the exchange rate impact, the UK business would have reported a 6.6% revenue growth to reach €1.691 billion (£1.488 billion). The company is now serving 32.7 million mobile subscribers, up 2.3% over Q1 last year, which includes both customers on O2 (25.1 million) and those on the MVNOs using Telefónica networks (Sky Mobile, giffgaff, Lycamobile, and Tesco Mobile).

“This is another good set of results building on our momentum from 2018. We have delivered further revenue and customer growth underpinned by our award-winning network and market-leading loyalty,” commented Mark Evans, CEO of Telefónica UK. “We are committed to making every day better, providing customers with compelling reasons to join and stay with us through attractive propositions such as O2 Custom Plans.”

Looking across all the Telefónica markets, the UK registered the lowest churn rate of 0.9% among in its postpaid customers. In comparison, in Telefónica’s other European markets, the churn rate of contract customers was 1.6% in Germany and 1.7% in Spain. Comparable churn rates in markets like Chile and Mexico ran around 3%.

Telefónica attributed high customer loyalty, among other things, to its aggressive investment to improve its networks. The company claims it is investing equivalent to £2 million a day to strengthen its network and increase its reach.

One of O2’s focus investment areas in 2019, in addition to the planned launch of 5G, will be high density venues, including sports arenas, shopping centres, hotels, and conference centres. Already serving the Anfield Stadium in Liverpool and the Lord’s cricket ground in London with improved networks, in collaboration with the Wireless Infrastructure Group (WIG), an infrastructure company, O2 is planning to upgrade and improve its coverage and capacities in other high usage venues.

“While we look ahead to 5G we also continue to focus on our existing network capability. We strive to deliver a great network experience to all our customers, including some of the UK’s busiest locations where network demand is at its peak,” said Brendan O’Reilly, O2’s Chief Technology Officer. “Our multi-million pound investment with our partners at WIG should provide O2 customers with even better connectivity in the places they love to visit.”

Here’s more commentary from COO Ángel Vilá.

US drives solid Deutsche Telekom numbers but German 5G auction is a drag

German operator group Deutsche Telekom has reported solid Q1 revenue growth, driven largely by T-Mobile US.

As you can see from the table below, revenues and EBITDA all grew nicely in Q1 2019. Profits, however, went in the opposite direction, apparently due to one-off things like the cost of trying to get the merger between TMUS and Sprint approved. Speaking of the US the second table shows just how much of the revenue growth is attributable to TMUS.

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Revenue 19,488 17,924 8.7 75,656
Proportion generated internationally in % 69.0 66.6 2.4p 67.8
EBITDA 6,461 5,269 22.6 21,836
Adjusted EBITDA 6,901 5,549 24.4 23,333
Adjusted EBITDA AL 5,940 5,487 8.3 23,074
Net profit 900 992 (9.3) 2,166
Adjusted net profit 1,183 1,190 (0.6) 4,545
Free cash flowa 2,370 1,382 71.5 6,250
Free cash flow ALa 1,557 1,318 18.1 6,051
Cash capexb 3,827 3,139 21.9 12,492
Cash capexb(before spectrum) 3,682 3,076 19.7 12,223
Net debtc 71,876 50,455 42.5 55,425
Number of employeesd 214,609 216,926 (1.1) 215,675

 

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Germany
Total revenue 5,357 5,325 0.6 21,700
EBITDA 1,946 1,915 1.6 8,012
Adjusted EBITDA 2,114 2,082 1.5 8,610
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,108 2,058 2.4 8,516
Number of employeesa 62,358 64,695 (3.6) 62,621
United States
Total revenue 9,796 8,455 15.9 36,522
US-$ 11,124 10,394 7.0 43,063
EBITDA 3,210 2,360 36.0 9,928
Adjusted EBITDA 3,309 2,332 41.9 10,088
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,679 2,331 14.9 10,084
US-$ 3,042 2,865 6.2 11,901
Europeb
Total revenue 2,891 2,811 2.8 11,885
EBITDA 1,035 905 14.4 3,757
Adjusted EBITDA 1,059 911 16.2 3,880
Adjusted EBITDA AL 945 898 5.2 3,813
Systems Solutions
Order entry 1,609 1,506 6.8 6,776
Total revenue 1,630 1,665 (2.1) 6,936
Adj. EBIT margin (%) (0.2) (2.3) 2.1p 0.5
EBITDA 79 19 n.a. 163
Adjusted EBITDA 125 57 n.a. 429
Adjusted EBITDA AL 92 60 53.3 442

“We got off to a successful start to the year,” said Tim Höttges, CEO of DT. “Deutsche Telekom has much more to offer than just our sensational success in the United States. We are seeing positive trends throughout the Group.”

Not included in his canned comments, but picked up by Reuters, was Höttges inevitable irritation at the amount of cash DT is having to drop on the interminable German 5G spectrum auction. We’re on round 305 of the bidding, believe it or not, and the total pledged has now reached €5,687,520,000. Expect to hear persistent muttering about how that’s money they can’t spend on infrastructure, etc, before long.

BT reports flat full year numbers but feels bullish about fibre

UK telecoms group BT revealed flat revenue growth on its full year 2018 report, but its new CEO said all the right things about investment.

Revenues were down a percent, but earnings per share were still up 6 percent. Of the business units only the biggest – consumer – showed any growth, with all the B2B units showing small declines. BT expects the 2019 financial year to deliver more of the same, because reasons. It said it has raised its capex guidance to £3.8 billion, but it ended up spending almost £4 billion in the 2018 financial year despite guiding £3.7 billion a year ago.

BT FY 2018 table

“BT delivered solid results for the year, in line with our guidance, with adjusted profit growth in Consumer and Global Services offset by declines in Enterprise and Openreach,” said new Chief Exec Philip Jansen.

“We need to invest to improve our customer propositions and competitiveness. We need to invest to stay ahead in our fixed, mobile and core networks, and we need to invest to overhaul our business to ensure that we are using the latest systems and technology to improve our efficiency and become more agile.

“Our aim is to deliver the best converged network and be the leader in fixed ultrafast and mobile 5G networks. We are increasingly confident in the environment for investment in the UK. We have already announced the first 16 UK cities for 5G investment.

“Today we are announcing an increased target to pass 4m premises with ultrafast FTTP technology by 2020/21, up from 3m, and an ambition to pass 15 million premises by the mid-2020s, up from 10 million, if the conditions are right, especially the regulatory and policy enablers.”

Those infrastructure ambitions are laudable, and were echoed by Openreach CEO Clive Selley, but don’t seem to tally with previous statements on the matter. A year ago Selley said “This year we’ll double our FTTP footprint and by 2020, we will have built it to 3 million homes across the UK. We want to reach 10m premises by the mid-2020s, and believe we can ultimately fully-fibre the majority of the UK under the right conditions.”

So the mid-2020s bit is fine but the 4m promise now has a revised deadline of April 2021, a year and a quarter later than the previous 3m promise. Now we might be missing something here but rather than increasing the target, all BT/Openreach seems to have done is insert another milestone a bit further down the line, which feels a bit deceptive.

“In cut throat market like the UK, there are few opportunities to grow,” said telecoms analyst Paolo Pescatore. “Moves to accelerate plans for its fibre broadband rollout, 5G and cross selling existing services can help increase the group’s bottom line but also require significant investment. The lack of any significant shift in strategy is unsurprising as it’s still early days for Philip Jansen.”

BT is hardly alone in hedging any investment pledge, however vague, with the caveat that it all depends on the regulatory environment. At least it has stopped openly begging for public money, for now. But the barely adjusted capex outlook implies even that pledge is trivial and Jansen might need to test his own investors’ patience with a more aggressive approach once he’s fully up to speed.

Qualcomm banks almost $5 billion from Apple and that’s just the start

In its latest quarterly earnings announcement Qualcomm revealed just some of the cash it’s trousering from Apple after winning their legal fight.

“On April 16, 2019, we entered into settlement agreements with Apple and its contract manufacturers to dismiss all outstanding litigation between the parties,” said the relevant bit of the report. “We also entered into a six-year global patent license agreement with Apple, effective as of April 1, 2019, which includes an option for Apple to extend for an additional two years, and a multi-year chipset supply agreement with Apple.

“While we continue to assess the accounting impacts of the agreements, our financial guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 includes estimated revenues of $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion resulting from the settlement (which will be excluded from our Non-GAAP results), consisting of a payment from Apple and the release of our obligations to pay or refund Apple and the contract manufacturers certain customer-related liabilities.

“In addition, our financial guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 includes estimated QTL revenues for royalties due from Apple and its contract manufacturers for sales made in the June 2019 quarter.”

Fiscal Q3 for Qualcomm is equivalent to financial Q2, so it covers all the initial payments Apple will make to Qualcomm as a result of their settlement. If you factor in the June quarter sales royalties that wouldn’t otherwise have been paid that should mean Qualcomm’s current account will be around $5 billion better off by the Summer.

There didn’t seem to be any details revealed about the new patent licence agreement, but the two-year backlog points to a historical rate of around $200 million per month. Given the apparently dominant negotiating position Qualcomm will have been in regarding access to its 5G products it’s easy to believe Apple will be handing over a fair bit more than that for the foreseeable future.

There was one other comment of interest in Qualcomm’s outlook. “Our financial guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 also includes $150 million of QTL revenues from Huawei, which represents a minimum, non-refundable amount for royalties due by Huawei while negotiations continue. This payment does not reflect the full amount of royalties due under the underlying license agreement.”

While this is essentially a restatement of the announcement Qualcomm made a quarter ago, it implies the dispute still isn’t resolved. Aside from all this Qualcomm’s Q1 revenues were roughly in line with expectations but a relatively downbeat general outlook drove its shares down a couple of percent.

Apple investors hope short-term pain will lead to long-term gain

16% growth in the steadily growing software and services business seems to be enough to rally investor confidence in the face of declining revenues.

Perhaps this is another lesson Apple can teach the world; how to effectively manage investor expectations. Total revenues are declining faster than the service division is growing, but with a 5.4% jump in share price in overnight trading, Apple investors seem to be buying into the short-term pain, long-term gain message from the technology giant.

For some the earning call might have been a shock to the system, explaining the immediate 1.93% drop in share price before markets closed. Total revenues for the quarter ending March 30 declined to $58 billion, down 5.2% year-on-year, while iPhone revenues dropped to $31 billion, a 17.8% dent in the same shipment figures from 2018. But the services division is the glimmer of hope.

“We had great results in a number of areas across our business,” said CEO Tim Cook during the earnings call. “It was our best quarter ever for Services with revenue reaching $11.5 billion.

“Subscriptions are a powerful driver of our Services business. We reached a new high of over 390 million paid subscriptions at the end of March, an increase of 30 million in the last quarter alone. This was also an incredibly important quarter for our Services moving forward.

“In March, we previewed a game-changing array of new services each of them rooted in principles that are fundamentally Apple. They’re easy to use. They feature unmatched attention to detail. They put a premium on user privacy and security. They’re expertly curated personalized and ready to be shared by everyone in your family.”

Although the Apple DNA is not rooted in the software and services world, this has to be the future. Overarching trends are indicating hardware is becoming increasingly commoditized, refreshment cycles are growing, and consumers are less likely to pay a premium for trusted brands. Apple is a company which defied these trends for a period, though not even the iLeader could deny the inevitable.

This is the critical importance of the software and services division; renewed, recurring and new revenues to replace the increasingly difficult, demanding and diversified hardware world, which is epitomised by the dreary global smartphone market.

Although Apple recently decided against releasing shipment figures during its earnings calls, it is still breaking out the revenues associated with products. The iPhone, the segment which drove growth in recent years, declined by 17.8% year-on-year. Part of this can be pinned on changing consumer behaviour, though you also have to look at the individual markets.

In China, Apple has been struggling. Canalys estimate smartphone shipments in the market have declined 3% year-on-year for Q1, though the locals are turning towards domestic brands. In years gone, Apple was a brand seen as somewhat of a status symbol, though it appears this is a concept which is quickly dissipating as the firm only collected 7.4% of market share over the first three months of 2019, a year-on-year decline of 30%.

Total revenues for China have not declined quite as dramatically, a 21.6% year-on-on-year dip to $10.2 billion, though Apple is not alone. OPPO, Xiaomi and Vivo also saw their year-on-year sales dip, with only Huawei coming out on the up. Here, Huawei managed to grow its shipments by 41%, taking 34% of the Chinese market share for Q1.

Another challenging market for Apple has been India. The story here is more forgiving however, as this is a much more cash-conscious market. Apple will of course want to maintain it position as a premium brand, therefore India, despite all the promise it offers, is not tailor made for its ambitions. Until consumer attitudes shift towards more premium devices, Apple will struggle.

Globally the smartphone market has not been helping either. According to Strategy Analytics, shipments decreased 4% year-on-year for the first quarter, with Apple slipping to third place overall.

Market share Q1 2019 Market share Q1 2018
Samsung 21.7% 22.6%
Huawei 17.9% 11.4%
Apple 13% 15.1%
Xiaomi 8.3% 8.2%
OPPO 7.7% 7%

These figures are not the end of the world, but it is a demonstration of consumer trends. There might still be an appetite for purchasing new devices, though there is seemingly a preference for those brands which might are cheaper. Such is the minimal differentiation between brands these days, why spend a premium when there is little need?

However, there is hope for Apple. Consumers might be getting frustrated over a lack of innovation in the hardware space, leading to longer refreshment cycles and a preference towards cheaper or refurbished devices, but the introduction of 5G might well change this.

With 5G devices being launched consumers will have something different to think about. Although 5G-capable devices are certainly not a necessity, and won’t be for a considerable amount of time, the ability to shout about something genuinely new might reinvigorate consumer appetite for purchasing new, and premium, devices. This could work in Apple’s favour.

That said, with Apple unlikely to release a 5G-capable device until 2020, the next few quarters could also demonstrate similar year-on-year declines. Apple seem to be happy to swallow this decline, sacrificing the ‘first to market’ accolade, but this how Apple traditionally approaches the market; it doesn’t aim to be first, but best.

For the moment, and the long-term health of the company, this does not seem to be the central point however. Apple is seemingly attempting to slightly shift the focus of the business, becoming more reliant on software and services, and it does seem to be working. As you can see from the table below, the ratio is shifting.

Product revenue Services Revenue Ratio
Q2 2019 46,565 11,450 81.3/19.7
Q1 2019 73,435 10,875 88.2/12.8
Q4 2018 52,919 9,981 84.1/15.9
Q3 2018 43,717 9,548 82.1/17.9
Q2 2018 51,947 9,190 85/15
Q1 2018 79,768 8,471 90.4/9.6
Q4 2017 44,078 8,501 85.9/16.1

The results in the table above do look quite confusing, though you have to consider that Q4 is usually the period for Apple’s flagship launch, skewing the figures towards the product segment, while Q1 accounts for Christmas, again tilting the figures. The general trend is looking favourable for the software and services division.

The last couple of months have seen Apple release several new services which will continue to bolster this division also. Whether it’s the content streaming service, news subscriptions, credit cards, iTunes or the App Store, the business is driving more investment and attention to this strange new world of software and recurring revenues. The ratio should continue to balance out, though we strongly suspect it will never get close to parity.

Another factor which you have to consider when it comes to the investors is the monetary gain. Yes, the long-term picture is looking healthier, but the firm has also announced it is increasing the dividend by 5%. This will keep cash-conscious and short-term investors happier, encouraging more to hold onto shares despite the downturn in revenues. The team has also announced a share buy-back scheme, up to $75 billion, which could be viewed as another move to protect share price. Although these could be viewed as short-term measures to cool the market, the overall business is looking healthier.

Apple is recentring the business, with more of a focus on software and services. The firm has defied the global hardware trends for some time, but they do seem to be catching up. What is important however is the management team recognising hardware will not be a suitable floatation device for Apple in the long-run. To continue dominating the technology world, Apple will have to spread its wing further into software, just as it is doing.

And perhaps the most critical factor of this transformation; investors seem to have confidence in the team’s ability to evolve.

YouTube censorship contributes to disappointing Google numbers

Google holding company Alphabet saw its share price fall by 8% after it announced disappointing Q1 numbers.

The company was fairly elusive about the reasons for a deceleration in its revenue growth on the subsequent revenue call, but many commentators picked up on comments around YouTube as significant.

“YouTube’s top priority is responsibility,” said Google CEO Sundar Pichai. “As one example, earlier this year YouTube announced changes that reduce recommendations of content that comes close to violating our guidelines or that misinforms in harmful ways.”

“…while YouTube Clicks continue to grow at a substantial pace in the first quarter, the rate of YouTube Click growth decelerated versus what was a strong Q1 last year reflecting changes that we made in early 2018, which we believe are overall additive to the user and advertiser experience,” said CFO Ruth Porat.

At least one analyst on the call expressed frustration at the lack of further clarity on the reasons why Google’s revenues aren’t what they expected them to be, but the YouTube stuff seems fairly self-explanatory. Pichai made it clear that YouTube is all about reducing perceived harmful content on the platform, while Porat referred to changes made at YouTube in early 2018.

So what were those changes? To YouTubers they were one of many wholesale restrictions on the types of content that are monetised (i.e. have ads served on them), broadly referred to as ‘adpocalypse’. Every now and then a big brand found its ads served against content it disapproved of, resulting in it pulling its ads from YouTube entirely. In the resulting commercial panic YouTube moved to demonetize broad swathes of content.

While this is an understandable immediate reaction to a clear business threat, it also undermines the central concept of YouTube, which is to provide a platform for anyone to publish video. On top of that YouTube increasingly censors its platform, including closing comments, tweaking the recommendation algorithm and sometimes even banning entire channels. These restrictions must surely have contributed to the amount of ad revenue coming in, but Google seems to have decided it’s worth it to keep the big brands sweet.

Here’s some further analysis from prominent YouTuber Tim Pool followed by an example of just the kind of indie creativity YouTube has built its success on (which, to be fair, doesn’t seem to have been demonetised this time). A move towards favouring big corporates over independent producers is a much bigger risk than you might imagine for YouTube, as Google’s disappointing Q1 numbers imply.

 

Samsung’s profit crashes on weak semiconductor sales

Samsung Electronics reported a net profit decline of 57% in Q1, with total revenue going down by 14%. The semiconductor unit suffered the worst.

Samsung’s quarterly revenue went down from KRW60.56 trillion ($52 billion) a year ago to KRW52.39 ($45 billion) in Q1. The gross margin level came down from 47.3% to 37.5%. The operating profit dropped to KRW6.23 trillion ($5.3 billion) from KRW15.64 trillion ($13 billion), a decline of 60.2%. The net profit came down by 57% to KRW5.04 trillion ($4.4 billion).

 Samsung 2019_1Q_income

On business unit level, Device Solutions reported a 27% drop in revenue, the sharpest decline among all the business units. Inside the unit, Memory chips declined by 34%. Samsung attributed the weakness to “inventory adjustments at major customers”, indicating its customers including other smartphone makers, have been selling slower than expected.

IT & Mobile Communications, Samsung’s largest business unit by sales, the business was more stable. Revenue from the handset business dropped by 4% from a year ago, but grew sequentially by 17%. Samsung saw strong demand for its Galaxy S10 products, but the de-focus of mid-range and lower products limited the volume growth. The recent debacle of S10 fold, high profile as it may be, should not have had any material impact on Q1 as it was scheduled to launch in Q2. Samsung’s network business, though small in comparison to its competitors, reported a strong revenue growth of 62% to reach KRW1.28 trillion ($1.1 billion), benefiting from the “accelerating commercialization of 5G in Korea”.

Samsung 2019_1Q_BU

Samsung gave cautious lift to its outlook for Q2 but more optimistic with the second half of the year. It foresees the memory chip market stabilising in Q2 and stronger growth in the second half due to seasonality and product line refreshing. On the mobile side, Samsung sees growth in shipment in Q2 thanks to continued demand for the S10 products and positive market response to its new mid-range A series. It sees the 5G products and the fold form-factor making material contribution in the second half.

A weak France overshadowed Orange’s Q1

The telecom operator Orange reported a flat Q1, with a weak performance in its home market partially compensated by the strength in Africa and the Middle East.

Orange reported a set of stable top line numbers in its first quarter results. On Group level, the total revenue of €10.185 billion was largely flat from a year ago (-0.1%), and the EBITDAaL (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation after lease) improved by 0.7% to reach €2.583. Due to the 8% increase in eCAPEX (“economic” CAPEX), the total operating cash flow decline by 10.2% to €951 million.

Orange 2019Q1 Group level numbers.pdf

Commenting on the results, Stéphane Richard, Chairman and CEO of the Orange Group, said that “the Group succeeded in maintaining its high quality commercial performance in spite of a particularly challenging competitive context notably in our two principal countries of France and Spain. Our strategy is paying off since EBITDAal is continuing to grow while revenues remain stable, allo wing us to reaffirm our 2019 objectives”

On geography level, France, its home and biggest market is going through a weak period. Despite registering net gain in the number of customers, the total income dropped by 1.8% to €4.408 billion, the first quarterly decline in two years. The company blamed competition, a one-off promotion of digital reading offer towards the end of the quarter, and “a weaker performance on high-end equipment sales in the 1st quarter of this year”. The move to “Convergence” was positive, but not fast enough to offset the lose in narrowband customers. The competition pressure is still visible. The Sosh package (home broadband + mobile) Orange rolled out to combat Free is gaining weight among its broadband customers, which resulted in a decline of revenues despite the growth in customer base.

Orange’s European markets, including Spain and the rest of Europe, reported modest growth, with strength in Poland (+2.6%) and Belgium & Luxembourg (+3.8%) offset by a weaker Central Europe (-1.9%). The bright spot was Africa and Middle East, which registered a 5.3% growth to reach €1.349 billion revenue, taking the market’s total revenue above Spain and just marginally behind the rest of Europe. The company’s drive to extend its 4G coverage in Africa is paying off, with mobile data service contributing to 2/3 of its mobile growth. Orange Money also saw strong enthusiasm, with the revenue up by 29% and total number of monthly active users totalling 15.5 million.

Both the Q1 results and outlook to the rest of the year spelled mixed messages for the wider telecom market and Orange’s suppliers, but negatives look to outweigh positives. On the consumer market side, the slowdown of high-end smartphone sales and prolonged replacement cycle has once again been demonstrated in the weak numbers in France. On the network market side, Orange predicts more efficiency. This includes both the network sharing deal signed with Vodafone Spain, which is expected to deliver €800 million savings over ten years, and an overall reduction in CAPEX this year.

As the CEO said, “while the level of eCapex for this quarter is higher, it should reduce slightly for 2019 as a whole, as predicted, excluding the effect of the network sharing agreement with Vodafone in Spain announced on 25 April.” This means, to achieve the annual target of reduced CAPEX, the spending will drop much faster in the rest of year. There is no timetable to start 5G auction in France yet, but it will be safe to say that any expectations of 5G spending extravaganza will be misplaced.

On the positive side, Orange has seen its efforts to diversify its business gaining traction, especially in IoT and smart homes. But these areas, fast as the growth may be, only make a small portion of Orange’s total business.