FCC Chairman convinced by T-Mobile/Sprint concessions

FCC Chairman Ajit Pai has publicly stated he believes the concessions made by T-Mobile US and Sprint are enough to ensure the merger would be in the public interest.

Over the course of the weekend, rumours emerged over concessions the pair would have to make to get the support of the FCC, though rarely are sources so spot on. The merged business will now have to commit to a nationwide 5G deployment within three years, sell Sprint’s prepaid brand and promise not to raise prices during the rollout years, if it wants the greenlight of the FCC.

What is worth noting is this is not a greenlight just yet. Pai has said yes, though he will need a majority vote from the Commissioners. Commissioner Brendan Carr has already pledged his support, and we suspect Michael O’Reilly will in the immediate future also. The Democrats might want to throw a spanner in the works, but this would be largely irrelevant with O’Reilly’s support.

“In light of the significant commitments made by T-Mobile and Sprint as well as the facts in the record to date, I believe that this transaction is in the public interest and intend to recommend to my colleagues that the FCC approve it,” Pai said in a statement.

“This is a unique opportunity to speed up the deployment of 5G throughout the United States and bring much faster mobile broadband to rural Americans. We should seize this opportunity.”

As you can imagine, T-Mobile US CEO John Legere certainly has something to say on the matter.

“Let me be clear,” Legere stated in a blog entry. “These aren’t just words, they’re verifiable, enforceable and specific commitments that bring to life how the New T-Mobile will deliver a world-leading nationwide 5G network – truly 5G for all, create more competition in broadband, and continue to give customers more choices, better value and better service.”

The first commitment made by T-Mobile US and Sprint is a nationwide 5G network. Considering Legere has been claiming his team would be the first to rollout a genuine 5G network for some time, it comes as little surprise the FCC will want to hold him accountable.

Over a three-year period, presumably starting when the greenlight is shown, the new 5G network will cover 97% of the population. 75% of the population will be covered with mid-band spectrum, while the full 97% will have low-band. This is a very traditional approach to rolling out a network, as it meets the demands of capacity and efficiency, though there is a sacrifice on speed.

Perhaps more importantly for the FCC, the plan also covers objectives to bridge the digital divide. 85% of the rural population will be connected during this period, increasing to 90% after six years. This is not to say all the farmers fields will be blanketed in 5G, though it does help provide an alternative for the complicated fixed broadband equation in the rural communities.

Moving onto the divestment, selling Sprint’s Boost prepaid brand seems to be enough to satisfy the competition cravings of Pai. What is worth noting is this will not be a complete break-away from the business as it will have to run on the T-Mobile US network. Unfortunately, MVNOs in the US are not as free to operate as those in Europe, as switching the supporting network would mean have to change out all the SIM cards.

This becomes complicated as you do not necessarily know who your customers are in a prepaid business model. The situation certainly encourages more competition, it will after all not be part of the T-Mobile US/Sprint family anymore, but it is far from a perfect scenario.

Finally, Legere has promised tariffs will not become more expensive during the deployment period, another worry for the FCC should the duo want to meet the ambitious objectives to compete with AT&T and Verizon. However, it does appear Legere is promising 5G tariffs will not include a premium either.

And now onto the other side of the aisle. Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel has tweeted her opinions on the concessions and it appears she is not convinced.

“We’ve seen this kind of consolidation in airlines and with drug companies. It hasn’t worked out well for consumers. But now the @FCC wants to bless the same kind of consolidation for wireless carriers. I have serious doubts.”

Rosenworcel has also suggested the decision should be put out for public consultation. We suspect Pai will want to avoid this scenario, as it would be incredibly time-demanding; the Chairman will want the merger distraction off his desk as soon as possible.

Commissioner Geoffrey Starks is yet to make a comment, but DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT go on his Twitter page if you haven’t watched the latest Game of Thrones episode.

We understand the Democrat and Republican Commissioners are going to be at each other’s throats over pretty much every decision, however trolling any innocent individual with a GoT spoiler is a low blow.

Starks and your correspondent are going to have some issues.

When FWA starts to make sense

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) attracts a huge range of opinions, but at Light Reading’s Big 5G Event, Starry put forward an interesting case.

Starry Internet is a fixed wireless broadband Internet service provider, founded in January 2016, operating across a small number of US cities. What makes Starry different from many of the other cable providers is an exclusive focus on FWA.

As a technology, FWA has certainly split opinion. Some see it as a 5G usecase which could justify the vast expenditure on the future-proofed networks, while others believe it is a distraction from what should be the ultimate goal; rolling out full-fibre broadband to all premises.

While we can see there are some niche usecases for FWA, we do not believe it is a viable alternative for fibre-based broadband solutions, the Starry proposition makes a valid case which will be attractive for some broadband challengers.

“People are dying for choice,” Starry COO Alex Moulle-Berteaux said during his keynote session.

Over the first 18 months of Starry’s existence, the firm managed to set up a FWA network which covers two thirds of Boston premises. Although Moulle-Berteaux hasn’t unveiled subscription numbers, the progress has been solid enough to fuel expansion into other US cities.

What is remarkably impressive is Starry managed to deploy this significant FWA network in Boston for less than $5 million.

Moulle-Berteaux also claims the firm has experienced a 20% uptake when connecting a multi-dwelling residence in the first 60-90 days. Promising 200 Mbps, down and up, the team are targeting the cord cutters, offering internet connectivity exclusively, potentially reduce monthly out-goings.

This is why the FWA case is attractive to some. Low cost of entry, Moulle-Berteaux highlighted the use of unlicensed spectrum is helping here, the ability to deliver high speeds and speak to a generation of customers who are increasingly becoming sick of the traditional relationship with connectivity and content providers.

That said, while this is an attractive proposition, we can’t see around the idea that FWA is incredibly short-termist.

Yes, the speeds delivered now are promising and there are certainly prospects to increase further, there will be limitations. Mobile connectivity is always going to be second-best when measured against fibre-based broadband, because physics.

Fibre is the fastest and most reliable connection. It works by emitting and receiving a light signal through the cables that represents binary code. FWA can deliver speeds faster than copper-based broadband, but it’s airborne and a little more prone to external factors. FWA is an alternative, but telcos can get distracted by short-term gains leading to long-term pain. Just look at the BT decision to prioritise G.Fast over fibre. It’s a similar business decision.

However, the US is a market where there might be a valuable role for FWA propositions. As Moulle-Berteaux highlighted, customers like choice and due to the lack of competition in the broadband market, are becoming frustrated with their current providers. This frustration will explain why Starry has been successful in hoovering up subscriptions.

We’re still not convinced by the FWA promise. Fibre is a long-term solution which all providers should be striving towards and there is a risk FWA will become a distraction. However, there are cases where the value is incredibly high. In the US, where many customers are becoming frustrated with a lack of competition, we might have a validated usecase.

Sunrise plugs FWA in Swiss 5G launch

Swiss telco Sunrise has jumped on the 5G bandwagon with the launch of a Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) offering aiming to bridge the digital divide.

Like the UK, Switzerland is one of the more sluggish European nations when it comes to fibre penetration. According to the latest statistics from the Fibre to the Home Council, Switzerland currently has FTTH penetration rate of 7.8% across the country, potentially creating a digital divide. This offering from Sunrise is using such a chasm to promote its FWA offering.

“In the digital age, residential and business customers alike need fast Internet with speeds of up to 1 Gbps,” said Olaf Swantee, CEO of Sunrise. “But in many places, customers are waiting in vain due to a lack of fiber optic connections.

“With 5G for People we are filling this gap, e.g. in Unterkulm (AG), where the first Sunrise 5G pioneer switched on his Sunrise Internet Box 5G and can now use ‘fibre through the air’, which is ten times faster than fixed networks. 5G for People is closing the digital divide in Switzerland and making Switzerland Europe’s pioneer in digital infrastructures.”

The initial launch will focus on 150 cities, towns and villages across the country, with each location aiming for between 80% and 98% population coverage, the aim will be to provide an alternative to fixed broadband services, some of which will be considered sub-standards by the demanding consumer of today.

Interestingly enough, the claims themselves demonstrate the difference in attitude between advertising authorities in the UK and Switzerland.

Using a statement such as ‘fibre through the air’ and comparing the 5G service to copper fixed networks not fibre, might irk some advertising authorities. Although it is not a direct lie, it is not telling the entire truth of the situation. Some might suggest this is misleading the customer through omission of information. We suspect the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) in the UK would have an issue with some of these claims.

Sunrise is on the charge through the Swiss alps, with its latest acquisition of Liberty Global’s assets adding momentum. First to market does not necessarily mean much in the long-run, but it is good ammunition to add to the armoury.

FWA can be the fuel for fibre ambitions – Huawei CTO

Fixed wireless access (FWA) should not be considered an alternative for fibre connectivity in the home, but that does not mean it should be ignored as a usecase to justify expenditure.

“5G is not about speed but about making money,” said Paul Scanlan, CTO for the Huawei Carrier Business Group.

Those who are basing business models around the idea that 5G will deliver faster connectivity are heading down a perilous road. There will be an opportunity to make money from faster connections, but a 5G-orientated telco thinks about the economics of connectivity differently, according to Scanlan. One example is the FWA buzz.

In some circles, FWA is being touted as an alternative to fibre broadband. For Scanlan, this is short-sighted, but it can create a more attractive position to ease the transition from legacy networks through to the future proof infrastructure.

Two concepts of fibre connectivity are completely unavoidable; firstly, its expensive to deploy a fibre network, and secondly, its very time-consuming. The materials are in high-demand pushing up the price, digs are laborious and planning permission laws can create a complicated red-tape maze. These are some of the reasons mobile connectivity vastly outstrips fibre deployments, which generally only grow 5% a year.

In certain geographies, the FWA usecase is an incredibly valuable one. Not only is it quicker to deploy, offering fibre-like speeds sooner rather than later, it is cheaper. Telcos can start delivering fibre-like broadband services immediately, increasing customer satisfaction, while these revenues can offset the heavy financial demands of deploying fibre. It’s a slightly different mindset, but FWA could aid the inevitable.

This is where the ‘bigger, faster, meaner’ mentality of the telcos could create a risk. It is simply not sustainable. Connectivity is becoming increasingly expensive, and consumers are paying less. This is not an attractive equation, but new services can eliminate the chasm.

Latency and transmission are two areas which are not attracting as much attention but could be the difference between the digital service provider of tomorrow and a utilitised telco for connectivity. With 5G, Huawei is promising latency can be reduced by 30-50X, while throughput can be increased by 16X; these numbers can create a more attractive business model.

On the latency front, there are some telcos across Asia who are attempting to monetize latency, creating added value services for gamers. For $1 a month, gamers can turn-on ‘low latency mode’ which can be the difference between winning and losing for certain titles. At $1 a month, it isn’t going to turn the tides, but enough of these value-adds fights back against the pressure of utilitisation trends.

Another interesting usecase is in the smart factory, using latency to remove intelligence off the robots. Scanlan highlighted very few people would buy a $1 million robot, but demand would be much higher for the same device priced at $1,000. The difference between the two could be removing the intelligent component from the robot and hosting them in the cloud. But for this to be a reality, latency would have to be significantly reduced. This is another monetization opportunity for the telcos.

Looking at transmission, Scanlan points to consumer traffic growth. If growth continues its current trajectory, at least 25% year-on-year, 4G will hit a glass ceiling within three years. 4G would have to increase network densification by 160% to meet the demands, though 5G could be the answer. Yes, there will need to be more small cell sites to address the coverage requirements, but each of these sites will have dramatically increased capabilities to deal with the traffic consumption.

Huawei claims CAPEX expenditure would have to increase by 5X for 4G to meet the demands if traffic increased by 50%, though it would only be 1.8X for 5G infrastructure. This creates a much more palatable equation for a scenario which is inevitable.

“What is the real reason for big 5G, it is significantly more efficient,” said Scanlan.

5G is faster, there is no avoiding this fact, but building a business around such a narrow focus is incredibly dangerous. The days of the ‘bigger, meaner, faster’ mentality is quickly dying in the telco world.

T-Mobile uses FWA and digital divide as latest Sprint merger justification

T-Mobile US has announced the launch of an LTE Fixed Wireless Access service, which could address the connectivity needs of 50 million people, assuming the Sprint merger is approved of course.

It hasn’t been billed as an Uncarrier move from T-Mobile, however it has the potential to be quite disruptive. The team has pointed to statistics which suggest 61% of rural customers either have no or only one home broadband services available to them, offering a significant opportunity for CEO John Legere and his magenta army, if they can prove the concept works effectively.

In the first instance, T-Mobile plans to invite 50,000 customers to participate in the live trial, though should the bureaucrats approve the Sprint merger, the team would be able to open this up to 9.5 million customers by 2024. And thanks to 5G, T-Mobile is promising speeds “in excess” of 100 Mbps to 90% of the forecasted FWA footprint, also by 2024.

“Two weeks ago, I laid out our plans for home broadband with the New T-Mobile,” said Legere. “Now, we’re already hard at work building toward that future. We’re walking the walk and laying the foundation for a world where we can take the fight to Big Cable on behalf of consumers and offer real choice, competition and savings to Americans nationwide.”

Although FWA is not a long-term, realistic alternative to fibre, at least not on the current airwaves, T-Mobile could certainly craft a useful position here. Pricing the service at $50 per month, the team suggests customers could save $360 per year, assuming the average monthly cost of home broadband is $80.

For T-Mobile this is perfect timing to plug the benefits of the Sprint merger and gain the interest of influential politicians. With the 2020 Presidential Election machine beginning to crank into first gear, potential candidates and the President himself will be looking for soundbites to rollout to the Middle America rallies. The FWA service ticks two boxes here.

Firstly, with so many rural consumers (and potential voters) either unable to purchase a home broadband service, or only having a single option, T-Mobile is providing an answer. In most cases, the reason home broadband is not available is due to an inability for the telco to prove ROI or the geographical landscape makes it incredibly difficult. FWA addresses these problems.

Secondly, $360 is a lot of money. T-Mobile has a track record of undercutting rivals while delivering a service which is at least on par. This might well be an offering which will attract the interest of many.

Should any politician be involved in forcing the T-Mobile and Sprint merger through, it would be an excellent anecdote for the ambitious politicians to take to potential voters. Not only are they delivering Middle America the internet, they are doing it cheaper than what is available to everyone else around the country.

T-Mobile is promising the merged company will use a low-cost structure to aggressively capture market share by undercutting rivals. This strategy is not only a chance for Legere to further irritate AT&T and Verizon, but it is a massive plug for the merger. In an FCC document, T-Mobile suggests by “monetizing available spectrum and leveraging off of other deployed network assets, the in-home service will be profitable on its own”. The underlying message is quite clear; look what we can do once you greenlight the merger.

Interestingly enough, T-Mobile seems to be fighting the competition concerns in the wireless market, with the opportunity to enhance competition in the wireline market. Soon enough, the merger judges will have to decide what is more important; maintaining the four MNO balance or creating more competition in the home broadband arena.

“These pro-competitive and pro-consumer in-home broadband benefits are clearly merger-specific, verifiable, and compelling considerations to inform the Commission’s overall review of the merger’s effects on competition and the public interest,” the statement to the FCC reads.

Another point which will gain the attention of the pro-consumer politicians and bureaucrats is the promise of free hardware. T-Mobile is promising the LTE router will be provided and installed at no-cost to the consumer, and as soon as 5G is available in the area, the upgraded 5G router will be provided free of charge.

The merger is still hanging in the balance, but the promise of increased competition in the broadband world, especially with the prospect of a race to the bottom, might turn some heads. The pros and cons of the T-Mobile/Sprint merger are starting to become very interesting

KT and Nokia will join hands to launch first ‘true’ 5G this month

Korea’s mobile operator KT is going to launch nationwide 5G service this month and will collaborate with Nokia to provide services and tools for the business and the public sectors.

Hwang Chang-Gyu, KT’s Chairman and CEO, recently announced that KT’s nationwide 5G network will be switched in March to cover 24 major cities, key transport routes such as expressways, subways, high-speed railways, large universities, and neighbourhood shopping areas. This will be an upgrade from the synchronised launch of 5G services with limited scale on 1 December 2018 by all the three national mobile operators.

“In March, KT will be the first in the world to introduce ‘True’ 5G mobile services,” said Hwang. “In the 5G era, neckband cameras, AR glasses and all kinds of devices will be connected to 5G, contributing to a better life for mankind.” That this was a personal historic moment should not to be lost. Exactly four years ago at MWC 2015, Hwang predicted a commercial 5G network by 2019. “Today, I would like to announce that the promise I made four years ago has finally been fulfilled,” Hwang added in his MWC speech.

The current 5G service that KT, SKT, and LG Plus are offering is fixed-wireless access targeted at business users. During the recent MWC, KT demonstrated plenty of 5G gimmicks for the consumer market, from a 5G connected robot butler bringing a bottle of water to the doorstep to a 5G and AI powered robot barista fixing cocktails.

KT is clearly banking big hope on 5G. Its Economic and Management Research Institute predicted that the socioeconomic value created by 5G will contribute to 1.5% of the country’s GDP by 2025. To realise such potential and to achieve serious monetisation of 5G, KT is looking towards the enterprise market and the public sector. The company announced that it plans to focus on five key areas with its 5G offers: smart cities, smart factories, connected cars, 5G media, and the 5G cloud. It says it is collaborating with various businesses as well as the Korean government to develop 5G services for both Business to Business (B2B) industries and Business to Government (B2G) sectors.

This is an echo to what Marcus Weldon, Nokia’s CTO and the President of Bell Labs, called for during his own speech at MWC. Weldon suggested the telecom industry should focus more on serving other verticals instead of on consumer markets, to deliver the true value of 5G. He did concede that it would need three to five years before telcos can see meaningful revenues from enterprise 5G. But when they do, Weldon predicted the business will soon equal that being made in the consumer 5G segment.

It just happened that KT and Nokia are going to collaborate closely in 5G. During MWC the two companies signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to collaborate on various 5G technologies. “We are excited to partner with Nokia to conduct these path-breaking trials,” said Jeon Hong-Beom, KT’s CTO. “This collaboration will ensure that we are able to leverage Nokia’s proven solutions and best-in-class professional services to provide a superior and differentiated experience to our subscribers.”

“With Korea, one of the lead countries in the early deployment of 5G, we are delighted to be working with KT to help them build a future-ready network,” added Bhaskar Gorti, President of Nokia Software. “Nokia’s end-to-end portfolio will empower KT to improve its customer experience and network efficiency.”

The key areas of the collaboration will include Service Orchestration and Assurance for the 5G era, with the aim of delivering end-to-end automation and new revenue opportunities for KT’s enterprise customers. This will be supported by the enabling technologies like NFC and network slicing. The joint work will start in Seoul later this year.

The US digital divide – does anyone have a clue what’s going on?

Depending on who you listen to the severity of the digital divide varies greatly. But with so many different opinions, how do you actually know what is going on? And if you don’t have a clue, how can you possibly solve the problem?

This topic is one which carries a particularly heavy amount of political charge, for good reason might we add, and is not limited to the US. Digital inclusion is a buzzword and objective associated with almost every nation due to the increasingly complex and embedded role digital is having in our lives. Every society should be considering strategies to ensure everyone is taken forward into the digital utopia, but the success of such initiatives is questionable.

Here we are going to have a look at the US market, but not question how successful the political administration and telcos have been at closing the gap, but whether they have the right foundations in the first place. To tackle a problem, you have to actually know what it is, and this is where we feel the industry is failing right now.

First of all, let’s start with the obvious issue. The telcos clearly favour the denser urban environments due to the economics of connectivity; providing customers the internet is an expensive job in the beginning. Not only do you have to buy the materials and the equipment, you have to process planning permission, deal with lawyers and do the dirty-job of civil engineering. But, you also to have to have the confidence customers will buy services off you. When there is such a sparse residential population in a region, it can be difficult to make the equation add up.

This is the issue in the US, and perhaps why the digital divide is so much bigger than somewhere like the UK. The land mass is substantially bigger, there are a huge number of isolated communities and connectivity tariffs are much more expensive. The problem has been compounded every time connectivity infrastructure improves, creating today’s problem of a digital divide.

But, here lies the issue. How do you solve a problem when you have no idea what the extent actually is?

An excellent way to illustrate this is with a road-trip. You know the final destination, as does everyone trying to conquer the digital divide, but if you don’t know the starting point how can you possibly plan the route? You don’t know what obstacles you might encounter on the way to Eden, or even how much money you will need for fuel (investment), how many packets of crisps you’ll need (raw materials such as fibre) or how many friends you’ll need to share time at the wheel (workforce).

The industry is trying to solve a problem when it doesn’t understand what it actually is?

The FCC don’t seem to be helping matters. During Tom Wheeler’s time in-charge of the agency, minimum requirements for universal broadband speeds were tabled at 25 Mbps, though this was then dropped to 10 Mbps by today’s Chairman Ajit Pai. Rumours are these requirements will once again be increased to 25 Mbps.

Not only does this distort the image of how many people have fallen into the digital divide, it messes around with the CAPEX and OPEX plans of the telcos. With higher requirements, more upgrades will be needed, or perhaps it would require a greenfield project. Once you drop the speeds, regions will once again be ignored because they have been deemed served. If you increase these speeds, will the telcos find a loophole to ignore them, or might they unintentionally slip through the net?

Under the 25 Mbps requirements it has been suggested 24 million US customers, just over 7%, fall into the digital divide, though this is an estimate. And of course, this 25 million figure is only meaningful if you judge the digital served customers as those who can theoretically access these products.

A couple of weeks ago, Microsoft released research which suggested the digital divide could be as wide as 150 million people. We suspect Microsoft is stroking the figures, but there will certainly be a difference because of the way the digital divide has been measured.

In the research, Microsoft measured internet usage across the US, including those who have broadband but are not able to surf the web at acceptable speeds. Microsoft considers those in the digital divide as those who are being under-served, or have no internet at all, whereas the FCC seems to be taking the approach of theoretical accessibility. There might be numerous reasons people fall into the digital divide but are not counted by the FCC, price of broadband for example, but this variance shows the issue.

Another excellent example is in Okta’s speed tests across Q2-Q3 which have been released this week. The Okta data suggests a 35.8% increase in mean download speed during the last year, ranking the US as the 7th best worldwide for broadband download speeds. According to this data, average download speed across the US for Q2-Q3 was 96.25 Mbps. This research would suggest everything is rosy in the US and there is no digital divide at all.

As you can see there is no consolidated approach to arguing the digital divide. Before we know it campaigning for the next Presidential Election will begin and the digital divide will become another political tool. Republican’s will massage the figures to make it seem like the four-year period has been a successful one, while Democrat’s will paint a post-apocalyptic image.

And of course, it is not just the politicians who will play these political games. Light Reading’s Carol Wilson pointed out Microsoft has a commercial stake in getting more bandwidth to more people so that more people can access their cloud apps and make them more money. Should we trust this firm to be objective in contributing to the digital divide debate? Even if the digital divide is narrowing, Microsoft will want to paint a gloomy picture to encourage more investment as this would increase its own commercial prospects.

The issue which is at the heart of the digital divide is investment and infrastructure. The telcos need to be incentivised to put networks in place, irrelevant as to the commercial rewards from the customer. Seeing at this bridge is being built at a snail’s pace, you would have to assume the current structure and depth of federal subsidies is simply not good enough.

The final complication to point out is the future. Ovum’s Kristin Paulin pointed out those in the digital divide are only those who are passed by fixed wireless, not taking into account almost every US citizen has access to one of the four LTE networks. Fixed Wireless Access will certainly play a role in the future of broadband, but whether this is enough to satisfy the increasingly intensifying data diets of users is unknown. 5G will certainly assist, but you have to wonder how long it will take to get 5G to the regions which are suffering in the divide today.

Paulin points to the affordability question as well. With the FCC only counting those US citizens who cannot access the internet in the digital divide, who knows how many citizens there are who can’t afford broadband. A New York times article from 2016 suggested the average broadband tariff was $55 a month, meaning 25% of the city, and 50% of those who earned under $20,000 would not be able to afford broadband. The Lifeline broadband initiative project is supposed to help here, but Paulin politely stated this is suffering some hiccups right now.

If citizens cannot afford broadband, is this even a solution? It’s like trying to sell a starving man, with $10 in his wallet, a sandwich for $25. What’s the point?

Mobile broadband might well be the answer, Nokia certainly believes a fibre network with wireless wings is the answer, though progress is slow here. Congestion is increasingly becoming a problem, while video, multi-screen and IOT trends will only make the matter more complicated.

As it stands, the digital divide is a political ping-pong ball being battered as it ducks and dives all over the landscape. But, the US technology industry needs to ask itself a very honest question; how big is the digital divide? Right now, we’re none the wiser, and it will never be narrowed without understanding the problem in the first place.

FWA could help inform operators of fibre rollout priorities – Nokia

While some are still sceptical of the longevity and performance characteristics of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a usecase for 5G, Nokia thinks it could serve a very useful purpose for fibre rollout plans.

Although the case for fibre has been built and justified, forecasting where demand will actually be is still a tricky task. For every correct prediction analysts and forecasters make, we suspect there will be dozens of forgotten failed ones. But Stefaan Vanhastel, Head of Fixed Networks Marketing at Nokia, thinks there could be useful benefits from FWA in making economical and efficient fibre rollout plans.

Here is Vanhastel’s theory. Offering a gigabit FWA service to customers will meet the demands of tomorrow, and offer a bit of breathing room from those who demanding full-fibre connectivity. Monitoring the data consumption of customers who have taken up the service could indicate where the greediest users are, and therefore the greatest potential for strain on the network and bottlenecks. Once these areas have been identified, they can be the first to receive the full-fibre connectivity diet.

Although fibre is the perfect solution for our connectivity cravings at home and work, upgrading current infrastructure is not going to happen overnight. It is an incredibly expensive process, time consuming and fibre is a product which is in high-demand. The reality of fibre connectivity is that it will be a gradual rollout throughout the network. Connecting small cells with fibre is a tough enough ask, but the last-mile is where telcos will struggle the most. 5G FWA might offer a temporary solution, while also providing valuable insight to the areas which need full-fibre the most.

Of course, it’s always worth bearing mind Nokia has something to gain out increased FWA interest, though it is not the worst idea we have ever heard.

BBWF 2018: Telefonica Germany pitches case for FWA

Telefonica’s UK business O2 might be avoiding convergence like the plague, but for its cousins in Germany, FWA is one of the biggest drivers for the adoption of 5G.

Speaking at Broadband World Forum in Berlin, Cayetano Carbajo Martín of Telefonica Germany is not fearful of the convergence distraction. In fact, it might just save the country from a connectivity embarrassment.

“5G implementation will be driven by different needs from fixed wireless access to ever increasing eMBB demand and even co-created new industry and service solutions,” said Martín.

As you can probably imagine, dealing with the tsunami of internet traffic is a big driver for 5G within Telefonica, but FWA is a long-term money making opportunity. In terms of the rate of growth, Martín highlighted traffic increased 160% over the last 12 months on O2’s network. Looking forward, even if you take a conservative estimate of 50% year-on-year growth, by 2027 internet traffic will be 38 times greater than it is today.

Looking at today’s resources, the network will hit full capacity by 2022 and the demand for new frequencies will become a necessity. And of course, these are conservative estimates not taking into consideration the unknown usecases of tomorrow. From a bandwidth perspective, 5G is increasingly becoming a necessity, with the deadline is becoming shorter and shorter.

This will also facilitate the telcos plans to venture into the FWA market. Martín highlighted there are no ambitions to explore the possibility of 4G FWA, it simply wouldn’t be able to compete with the experience of traditional broadband, though trials in Hamburg are readying the assault on the FWA space. If you listen to Martín, the opportunity is quite significant, with the CTO predicting 20-25% of Germany will convert to FWA, and perhaps this will dig Germany out of a hole.

Like the UK, Germany is one of those markets which has not glorified itself with an ambitious fibre rollout and is now playing catch-up. The FWA buzz which is beginning to build might just disguise a couple of blushed Bavarian cheeks should 5G-driven FWA be able to cover up the fibre-less cracks across the country.

What is worth noting though is FWA will not be the saviour many are plugging it to be. Some, no names mentioned, believe it might be able to bridge the connectivity gap between urban and rural environments, but this is exaggerated. The same financial pressures will be on FWA as there will have to be suitable population density to build the business case. FWA will not mean gigabit speeds will be democratized.

Even at what is supposed to be a fixed broadband conference, 5G has managed to muscle in on the action. It’s almost embarrassing how much its hogging the limelight.