US drives solid Deutsche Telekom numbers but German 5G auction is a drag

German operator group Deutsche Telekom has reported solid Q1 revenue growth, driven largely by T-Mobile US.

As you can see from the table below, revenues and EBITDA all grew nicely in Q1 2019. Profits, however, went in the opposite direction, apparently due to one-off things like the cost of trying to get the merger between TMUS and Sprint approved. Speaking of the US the second table shows just how much of the revenue growth is attributable to TMUS.

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Revenue 19,488 17,924 8.7 75,656
Proportion generated internationally in % 69.0 66.6 2.4p 67.8
EBITDA 6,461 5,269 22.6 21,836
Adjusted EBITDA 6,901 5,549 24.4 23,333
Adjusted EBITDA AL 5,940 5,487 8.3 23,074
Net profit 900 992 (9.3) 2,166
Adjusted net profit 1,183 1,190 (0.6) 4,545
Free cash flowa 2,370 1,382 71.5 6,250
Free cash flow ALa 1,557 1,318 18.1 6,051
Cash capexb 3,827 3,139 21.9 12,492
Cash capexb(before spectrum) 3,682 3,076 19.7 12,223
Net debtc 71,876 50,455 42.5 55,425
Number of employeesd 214,609 216,926 (1.1) 215,675

 

Q12019

millions of

Q12018

millions of

Change% FY
2018
millions of

Germany
Total revenue 5,357 5,325 0.6 21,700
EBITDA 1,946 1,915 1.6 8,012
Adjusted EBITDA 2,114 2,082 1.5 8,610
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,108 2,058 2.4 8,516
Number of employeesa 62,358 64,695 (3.6) 62,621
United States
Total revenue 9,796 8,455 15.9 36,522
US-$ 11,124 10,394 7.0 43,063
EBITDA 3,210 2,360 36.0 9,928
Adjusted EBITDA 3,309 2,332 41.9 10,088
Adjusted EBITDA AL 2,679 2,331 14.9 10,084
US-$ 3,042 2,865 6.2 11,901
Europeb
Total revenue 2,891 2,811 2.8 11,885
EBITDA 1,035 905 14.4 3,757
Adjusted EBITDA 1,059 911 16.2 3,880
Adjusted EBITDA AL 945 898 5.2 3,813
Systems Solutions
Order entry 1,609 1,506 6.8 6,776
Total revenue 1,630 1,665 (2.1) 6,936
Adj. EBIT margin (%) (0.2) (2.3) 2.1p 0.5
EBITDA 79 19 n.a. 163
Adjusted EBITDA 125 57 n.a. 429
Adjusted EBITDA AL 92 60 53.3 442

“We got off to a successful start to the year,” said Tim Höttges, CEO of DT. “Deutsche Telekom has much more to offer than just our sensational success in the United States. We are seeing positive trends throughout the Group.”

Not included in his canned comments, but picked up by Reuters, was Höttges inevitable irritation at the amount of cash DT is having to drop on the interminable German 5G spectrum auction. We’re on round 305 of the bidding, believe it or not, and the total pledged has now reached €5,687,520,000. Expect to hear persistent muttering about how that’s money they can’t spend on infrastructure, etc, before long.

Vodafone Germany tries to placate regulators via wholesale cable deal with Telefónica

Telefónica Deutschland will be able to sell services that run on the combined Vodafone and Unitymedia cable network in Germany, as a remedy measure taken by Vodafone to satisfy EU’s competition concern over its proposed acquisition of Liberty Global.

The two companies announced that they have entered into a definite “cable wholesale agreement” in Germany, whereby Telefónica Deutschland will offer its customers broadband services that use both the Vodafone fixed network and that of Unitymedia. The combined networks cover 23.7 million households and represent a significant upgrade to whatever Telefónica Deutschland customers are currently getting.

“The cable agreement will enable us to connect millions of additional households in Germany with high-speed internet in the future,” said Markus Haas, CEO of Telefónica Deutschland. “By adding fast cable connections, we now have access to an extensive infrastructure portfolio and can offer to even more O2 customers attractive broadband products – including internet-based TV with O2 TV – for better value for money.”

Vodafone’s plan to acquire Liberty Global in Germany (where it trades under the brand Unitymedia), the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, has run into difficulty at the European Union, which raised competition concerns at the end of last year. The Commission was particularly worried that the combined business would deprive the consumers in Germany of access to high speed internet access, and the OTT services carried over it. Vodafone expressed its confidence that it would be able to satisfy the Commission’s demand. Opening its fixed internet access to its competitor is clearly one of the remedies. Also included in the remedy package Vodafone submitted to the Commission was its commitment to ensure sufficient capacity is available for OTT TV distribution.

“Our deal with Liberty Global is transformational in many ways. It is a significant step towards a Gigabit society, which will enable consumers & businesses to access the world of content & digital services at high speeds. It also creates a converged national challenger in four important European countries, bringing innovation & greater choice,” said Nick Read, CEO of Vodafone Group. “We are very pleased to announce today our cable wholesale access agreement with Telefonica DE, enabling them to bring faster broadband speeds to their customers and further enhancing infrastructure competition across Germany.”

Vodafone believed the remedial measures it put in place should sufficiently reassure the Commission that competitions will not suffer after its acquisition of Liberty Global. The company now expects the Commission to undertake market testing of the remedy package it submitted, and to give the greenlight to the acquisition deal covering the four countries by July 2019. It plans to complete the transaction by the end of July. The merger between Vodafone’s and Liberty Global’s operation in The Netherlands was approved by the EU in 2016.

US slightly winds its neck in over 5G security

Having previously tried to play hardball with Germany over 5G security the US now says its allies should follow its example.

This sudden change of heart was expressed by Robert Strayer, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cyber, International Communications and Information Policy at the U.S. State Department in an interview with a few US hacks. But it’s even less substantial than it seems as the only reason the US has warmed to Germany’s approach is that it thinks it will result in the Huawei ban it has been seeking all along.

“We have encouraged countries to adopt risk-based security frameworks,” said Strayer. “And we think that a rigorous application of those frameworks will lead inevitably to the banning of Huawei. At this point we’re looking for governments to adopt security standards like we’re seeing in Germany. We think it was a very positive step forward in the German standards.”

Surely all security frameworks are largely risk-based. What is a security framework if not an attempt to mitigate risk? Apparently Germany is asking its operators to only work with ‘trustworthy’ vendors, which once more seems somewhat redundant as that was presumably already a priority. As ever the critical matter seems to concern Chinese law, which apparently compels Chinese companies to cooperate with the government, thus rendering them intrinsically untrustworthy.

Ultimately this seems to be a totally cosmetic concession by the US. Germany had previously made it clear that the US was overstepping the mark when it came to direct pressure over 5G security so now it’s saying Germany can do what it wants… so long as that results in Huawei getting banned. This leaves us where we’ve been for months – the US thinks everything Chinese is dodgy and expects its allies to publicly agree.

DT CEO moans as bidding in German 5G auction tops €1 billion

Just for a change operators are moaning about the amount they have to pay for licensed spectrum, arguing that leaves less cash for infrastructure.

This time the country in question is Germany, which is in the middle of a 5G auction its operators have had a problem with from the start. According to the regulator bidding has already topped a billion euros and, while it still has a way to go before reaching the orgiastic excesses of the Italian one, muttering about the cost has already begun.

Commenting at its recent AGM, DT CEO Tim Höttges made it clear he has a problem with the fact that not all available spectrum is even being offered in the action, which he reckons is bound to have an inflationary effect. “An artificial shortage of public resources is being created, which may push up the price,” he said. “In the end, there is no money for the build-out.”

There was also some general dissent about excessive regulation, ease and speed of access to new cell sites and access regulation for new fibre networks that is considered counterproductive. But the main theme of his speech at the AGM was ‘sharing and participation’ and featured largely generic sentiments about the importance of communications networks and how totally committed to them DT is.

This auction is expected to hit at least three billion euros but, as we saw in Italy, auctions can easily become frenzied. European operators seem to be feeling increasingly inclined to challenge the terms of spectrum auctions but so far their attempts at legal challenges have yielded little. It does seem odd that the German state has held back a bunch of spectrum, however, and it would be interesting to know the rationale for that.

Germany pushes back against US Huawei threats

It tried scaring her, to convince her with niceties, the diplomatic approach and finally threats, but the US cannot seem to break the will of German Chancellor Angela Merkel over Huawei.

Speaking at the Global Solutions Summit this week, Merkel has continued to defy the desires and demands of the US over China and its telco champion Huawei. Germany is not only standing resolute against the political propaganda, but this message seems to be more of a push back against the White House.

“There are two things I don’t believe in,” Merkel said during the interview. “First, to discuss these very sensitive security questions publicly, and second, to exclude a company simply because it’s from a certain country.”

This has been the on-going message from Germany and it seems the US threat of intelligence exclusion has landed on deaf ears. Germany wants proof of nefarious activities, and it will not make a knee-jerk reaction to punish a company (or a country for that matter) when the drivers are political and economic.

While there is of course a threat of espionage from the Chinese Government, this on-going narrative is one chapter in the wider US/China trade saga. Threats should of course be assessed and mitigated in a reasonable fashion, but you must consider all branches of the storyline. And Germany isn’t buying into US chest beating.

In terms of what has actually been said, there are five key takeaways:

  • Sensitive security issues should not be discussed on the public stage
  • Punishing a single company is not the right way to ensure security
  • Targeting China due to its economic success is unfair
  • Security requirements should be across the ecosystem to mitigate risk
  • The same security requirements should be escalated to a European level

Each of these points made by Merkel this week, and various German government agencies for months, are completely fair, reasonable and pragmatic. But fair, reasonable and pragmatic does not help the US.

Why is Germany resisting?

The simple answer is that it doesn’t make sense to ban Huawei.

Firstly, from a competition perspective the telco industry is not flush with vendors, especially ones which can offer the same scale as Huawei. Removing Huawei, and Chinese vendors across the board, reduces the number of vendors available for telcos to choose from. This weakens the negotiating position of the telcos and, theoretically, slows down the deployment march.

Secondly, a Huawei ban would impact some European nations more than others and Germany is one of them. Huawei has deep relationships with German operators, with equipment embedded into 4G networks. Banning Huawei would potentially result in kit having to be ripped and replaced, slowing down progress, while backward compatibility becomes more difficult also, again, slowing down progress.

With the world increasingly being defined by wireless, Europe’s largest economy cannot afford to slip too far behind in the 5G race. According to data from Opensignal, Germany has been falling behind numerous European nations when it comes to average 4G speeds.

While it might not have a massive impact on what we associate with connectivity today, primarily consumer smartphone applications and entertainment, with 5G promising a revolution in the way connectivity influences enterprise and the economy, this could become much more of an issue in Germany.

In short, Germany cannot afford to stomach the consequences of banning Huawei.

The turning tide of momentum

The anti-China rhetoric from the US has been consistent and loud over the last couple of months, though it does not seem to be gathering the same support as during the initial propaganda assault.

After Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and New Zealand seemingly turned against Huawei and China, the ear-whispering has not been as successful in Europe. The European continent has been a successful arena for Huawei in recent years, and such is the dependence of telco infrastructure on the vendor, it is unsurprising these nations are resisting the call to ban Huawei.

While individual states have been pushing back against US ambitions, this leaves the governments in slightly precarious positions. Such is the power and influence of the US economy, individually European nations will be in a frustrating negotiating position when defying US requests. However, escalating to a European level changes the dynamics.

This is perhaps why Merkel is keen to escalate this discussion to European Commission level. The power of the collective against US ambitions is an excellent way to mitigate risk on an individual level. Sovereign nation states often begrudgingly hand over power to the Brussels bureaucrats, but in this instance, it might prove to be a very pragmatic idea.

The European Commission was reportedly looking into new rules which would effectively ban member states from purchasing equipment from Chinese companies (although China would not be mentioned specifically), but we can’t see this carrying through. Brussels would face a huge amount of backlash when seemingly contradicting the wishes of the majority of its member states.

That said, should the US be able to produce concreate evidence of Chinese espionage and collusion with Huawei, attitudes could shift incredibly quickly.

What does this mean for Huawei?

This is neither good or bad; it’s pretty much maintaining the status quo.

Being banned in the US won’t really impact the prospects of the business, it never really cracked this market, while it will continue to maintain its healthy position in Asia. Europe is a key battle ground though.

Europe is in a difficult position. It needs to tread carefully to ensure it can still use equipment from the vendor. European governments will not want to ban Huawei and this continued resistance is a good sign for Huawei. Germany and the UK, two influential voices across the bloc, are both preparing frameworks to allow Huawei’s business to continue, and should such ambitions be escalated to the European Commission, these trends would likely continue.

Due to on-going security concerns, some of which are not fairy tales despite a lack of evidence, and telcos desires to introduce more diversity in the supply chain, Huawei is unlikely to dominate the 5G world in the same way it did 4G. This is far from a secured position, politics has a way of U-turning occasionally, but the anti-Huawei brigade is starting to run out of puff.

UK and Germany are a bit rubbish at mobile – Opensignal

A new study from mobile analytics company Opensignal notes the UK and Germany are falling behind in terms of mobile performance.

It took a look at the two operator groups that have networks in both countries and found they all deliver relatively low mobile broadband speeds in those two countries. As you can see in the charts below, Telefónica does a fair bit worse in the UK and Germany than in Spain, but maybe that’s to be expected since it’s a Spanish company. However the trend continues with Vodafone, for which the UK and Germany are two of its worst performers.

opensignal telefonica

opensignal vodafone

“So what’s the reason for these relatively poor mobile broadband speeds in Germany and the U.K.?” said Opensignal Analyst Peter Boyland. “It certainly isn’t market maturity or competition, as both countries have had mobile networks for decades and levels of competition, numbers of operators, etc. are comparable with their neighbours.

“Topographically, both countries have challenges in terms of size and population density, but no more than, say, Italy or Spain. It would be easy to blame poor performance on underinvestment in network infrastructure, but the reality is a combination of many factors including regulation, availability of spectrum, and mergers and acquisitions among network operators.

“The fact remains that Germany and the U.K. are punching well under their weight in terms of mobile network speeds. Both countries are on the verge of 5G launches, but it is likely to be some years before the benefits of these new networks are felt by most mobile users. And there is growing discontent among the business community in Germany, with claims that poor broadband speeds are hindering economic growth. Germany and the U.K. may not be able to wait for the 5G opportunity, as their operators urgently need to make improvements in their mobile network experience today.”

Something’s certainly going on when two major operator groups can only manage around half the performance in the UK and Germany as they can in their leading markets. As Boyland said this situation will be the product of a number of factors, but our gut-feel is that regulation and spectrum availability are probably the most significant of them.

US reportedly pressures Germany over Huawei

After diplomacy failed to convince those pesky Europeans Huawei should be banned, the US has reportedly moved onto the tried and tested tactic for getting its way; being a bully.

It was never going to be long before the blunt hammer of political persuasion came out, and according to the Wall Street Journal, the White House is huffing, puffing and about to start swinging. The German Government has reportedly been told to ditch Huawei kit or it will be barred from accessing US intelligence databases.

Should the reports prove to be true, this would be the first time the US has threatened allies with direct consequences for ignoring the anti-China propaganda. That said, it should come as little surprise. The US is a political power not used to being told no, especially with the narcissistic President Trump acting as puppet master. Being nice can only get you so far, and the White House has seemingly had enough of those pesky Europeans making their own decisions.

While Huawei remains a company under scrutiny, the European nations has so far resisted any knee-jerk reactions. It has been rumoured Germany was preparing new security requirements which would protect itself and its citizens, but also allow Huawei to continue operating in the country, and last week was confirmation. The release of a draft bill, outlining the new security requirements laid out the German position; Huawei looked safe in Germany.

Germany is of course a large economy and a key trading partner of the US, though it is also a heavyweight amongst political featherweights in the European Union. In drafting these new security requirements, other countries across the bloc might follow suit, such is the influence of Berlin. Perhaps this is a situation which the dented-ego of the US would not allow, especially considering its lobby efforts have largely been ignored across the European continent.

With Europeans taking a more proportionate response to the threat of foreign actors, the US will of course not be happy. The bully of yesteryear is beating its chest, and collateral damage from the US/China trade war could be about to get much wider.

Germany outlines its 5G security requirements

Short and to the point, did we expect anything from the German 5G security requirements other than meet our standards and you can operate in our country?

“We regularly adapt the applicable security requirements to the current security situation and the state of the art,” said Jochen Homann, President of Bundesnetzagentur. “The security requirements apply to all network operators and service providers and they are technology-neutral, covering all networks, not just individual standards such as 5G.”

What is worth noting is that while 5G and international security concerns might be the catalyst to these requirements, they will be applied across all networks and communications infrastructure moving forward, as well as all vendors.

The announcement from Bundesnetzagentur, the German regulator, will come as a blow to the aggressive geo-political ambitions of the US. It seems the anti-Huawei propaganda is running low on fuel, and such is the weight of Germany’s influence across Europe, Chinese executives might be letting out a sigh of relief.

Although the new safety requirements are only a concept for the moment, Bundesnetzagentur plans to release a draft of the rules for feedback over the next couple of weeks.

The requirements are quite broad-ranging, though there are enough clauses to ensure Germany is the master of its own fate. For example, critical components can only be used in communications infrastructure should there be certification recognized by the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI). Employees who install or manage this equipment will also have to be certified by German authorities.

There does also seem to be a move towards the UK’s approach to monitoring and managing risk. As part of the new requirements, network traffic must be regularly and continuously monitored for abnormalities, while safety-relevant network and system components must undergo regular and continuous safety checks. This is a more forensic approach to network management, which allows for companies like Huawei to operate in the country, but the risk is managed.

Another interesting aspect to be included in the new rules addresses ‘monocultures’. Although this is a term which is usually used in agriculture, Bundesnetzagentur is essentially ensuring there is depth in the supply chain. Redundancy must be built into the networks through using multiple vendors for different segments and aspects of operations.

While this might create more work for telcos, vendors and regulators, we feel this is a more proportionate response to the risk of nefarious external parties. Simply banning one company, or companies from a single country, will not work, such are the complexities of the digital ecosystem. Vulnerabilities are everywhere, and the most pragmatic approach should be to understand 100% secure will never exist. Its all about managing the risk most appropriately, and Germany seem to be taking a very sensible approach.

In the UK, the industry is eagerly awaiting the results of the Government’s supply chain review, which will potentially dictate how telcos interact with the vendor ecosystem. Rumours have emerged suggesting no single-vendor can own more than 50% of a certain area, but we hope the result is somewhat similar to the German approach here. This seems to be the attitude of Vodafone also.

Speaking at a briefing in London, Vodafone UK CTO Scott Petty highlighted the team has been working with the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) to identify the levels of risk associated with each segment of the network (Radio, Transmission, Core), and building a diverse supply chain to mitigate risk where appropriate.

This approach has led to Chinese companies being excluded from certain areas, though on the radio side where right has been deemed to be very low, Huawei supplies 32% of equipment. This approach allows best-in-breed kit to be considered but considering the sheer volume of cell towers around the UK, even if some equipment is compromised, the impact would be incredibly minor. Resilience has been built in through volume, data encryption and security gateways.

Interestingly enough, Germany is taking another very sensible approach to managing risk; the assumption that everyone is nefarious. All components and equipment will have to be certified, not just those products from countries which are deemed underhanded by paranoid opinion. Every vendor’s supply chain is becoming increasingly complex, suggesting vulnerabilities could appear anywhere. This impartial approach to suspicion will certainly place Germany is a sound position.

A considered approach to security

While certain countries have taken a knee-jerk reaction to security requirements, pinning the blame of an insecure digital ecosystem on one country or a very limited number of countries, Germany is taking a much more considered approach.

Having such a laser-like focus on security, scrutinising single elements of the ecosystem is incredibly dangerous. Cyber-criminals are incredibly intelligent, managing sophisticated networks through the dark web. If the risk of exposure becomes too high through a single route, another will be sought. Taking a blanked approach to security as Germany is doing minimises risk throughout the supply chain.

We suspect the Chinese government is not completely innocent in light of all the accusations, but we also believe they are not alone. Many of the fingers are being pointed in one direction, but Germany is not falling into that trap.

Europe sailing towards conflict over China 5G

Germany is drafting rules to allow Chinese companies to participate in the 5G bonanza, while the European Commission is thinking of banning them. Something’s got to give.

In terms of collective political influence and economic power, the European Union could consider itself more or less on par with the US and China. Considering the Union represents the societal, political and economic interests of 28 nations, more than 500 million people and roughly $23 trillion in GDP, it is certainly a powerful concept. But the China issue is just one example of how its neatly stitched patchwork could unravel very quickly.

China is a very tricky equation to balance right now. On side, you have an incredibly powerful economy, a massive and increasingly wealthy population and technological advancements which could benefit almost every society. However, to access these riches you have to deal with a government which ideologically conflicts with a lot of what Europe stands for.

But this is where a potentially significant conflict lies. The European Commission is reportedly looking at how it could create a de facto ban for Chinese technology and kit in communications infrastructure, conflicting with some of its member states positions. The Commission is supposed to represent the interests of all its member states, creating a common framework which sits above national policies, but if these policies are a contradiction of opinions of some member states the perfect storm could be brewing on the horizon.

Germany is not talking the anti-China rhetoric

The most recent reports echoing out of Berlin will not have the US government jumping for joy. Local newspaper Handelsblatt is suggesting the German government is doing everything it can to write security protections into new regulation, however, the rules will be written in a manner which will not exclude Chinese companies.

The reports have not been confirmed by any official government spokespeople as of yet, though this does follow on from the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) made in December.

“For such serious decisions like a ban, you need proof,” said Arne Schoenbohm, President of BSI.

The US will not be happy about developments here, a delegation is currently undertaking a European lobby tour to turn officials against China, though neither will the European Commission. There are several instances which indicate the European Commission is taking a similar stance against China, suggesting a bloc-wide ban could be on the cards before too long.

Aside from recent reports the European Commission is rewriting cybersecurity rules to effectively ban Chinese companies from providing technology for communications infrastructure, one of its Commissioners has also fuelled the anti-China rhetoric.

“I think we have to be worried about these companies,” Commissioner for Digital Single Market Andrus Ansip told reporters in December. Ansip was referring to companies such as Huawei and ZTE, while this statement implies the Commission believes there are strong ties between multi-national corporations and the Chinese government.

The United States of Europe argument emerging again?

With Germany seemingly working to ensure collaboration with Chinese companies remains possible, the UK creating monitoring mechanisms to enable Huawei’s work and Italy denying reports it is considering its own ban, the European Commission appears to be working in direct contradiction to some of its largest member states.

To be fair, the role of the European Commission is to serve all the states not just the big ones, but the point of the bureaucracy is to create a common framework which all agree on, not rules which are forced onto member states. Cynics of the Commission and Union in general will suggest this is perhaps more evidence of Juncker and co. attempting to create a United States of Europe, where the desires of the member states are secondary to that of the ruling party.

Although many of these conspiracy theories are generally relegated to the comment boards of the Daily Mail, the Commission might well be heading towards a monumental conflict. Any rules which are written at European Commission level would potentially render national regulations redundant, a scenario those member states would not be happy with.

Considering the shoddy state of affairs Brexit has been creating, perhaps the European Commission should attempt to create an image of co-operation and collaboration. Antagonising leading member states is not a sensible idea, while a ‘state v. Europe’ conflict over security is not something which will reflect favourably on the agency.

Is politics anything more than arguing with shiny teeth?

Caught on the fringes of this conflict and the constant political seesawing are the telcos. Governments often tell the telco industry they are there to help and enable innovation, but it seems most of the time politicians are nothing but a hindrance attempting to score PR points by pandering to buzzwords and public opinion.

With governments aiming to ban Huawei and ZTE from connectivity plans, several telcos have stepped into the fray to give their own opinion. The message seems to be relatively consistent; heighten security requirements if you must but banning a vendor in an incredibly top-heavy market will not be a good idea.

“Clearly, if there were a complete ban at radio level, then it would be a huge issue for us, but it would be a huge issue for the whole European telco sector,” Vodafone CEO Nick Read said during the latest earnings call. “Huawei probably has 35% of the market share through the whole of Europe.”

Deutsche Telekom is another who foresees any Huawei ban being nothing but problematic. The German telco has previously stated a ban on Huawei would set its 5G ambitions back two years. Several telcos are considering scaling back work with Huawei, but this is perhaps directed more towards the uncertain political climate than any outright worry regarding the security credentials of Huawei equipment.

European telcos are not dependent on Huawei equipment to function effectively, but they are somewhat reliant on it. There aren’t enough suppliers, or good-enough suppliers, to strike Huawei out of the mix. US telcos are not having to deal with this headache as their operations adapted to a lack of Huawei and ZTE years ago, Europe is struggling with the political seesawing and story of uncertainty. Any business leader will tell you, a consolidated, cohesive and concrete regulatory landscape is critical for success.

Huawei stuck between a rock and a hard place

Huawei is a company which now has no control over its own fate.

With the US parading around political offices spreading its anti-China message without the burden of evidence, Huawei can’t do anything. Numerous governments are asking the vendor to prove its security credentials, but this will mean little is there is still suspicion. The case against Huawei is not based on evidence, but one which is based on a political and economic power struggle.

With a lack of evidence to substantiate any accusations against the firm, Huawei is being asked to do something which has been accepted as almost impossible; prove a negative. All of the questions and queries being directed at the firm have a single aim, to demonstrate there are no ties between the organization and the Chinese government, as well as its intelligence agencies.

It’s an almost impossible task, especially when you take into account the powerful influence of the US and the fact most of these decisions are being made on hearsay, circumstantial evidence and emotion. Whatever Huawei says, however much evidence is put on the table, we suspect opinions have already been made.

An issue of consistency and contradiction

In a single signature, the European Commission could throw the bloc into disarray. If the rumours evolve into reality, the European Commission could impose its own rules, contradicting the hopes and ambitions of some member states. Such a scenario would question how much control the member states have over their own society, undermining the concept of sovereignty.

Any fundamental changes would certainly have to be greenlit by all member states, but the European approach to China on the whole, and Huawei specifically, has not been entirely consistent. One question which might be worth considering is whether the European Commission is overstepping its remit.

We are almost certain Germany will not be happy being told to ban Huawei considering it seemingly wants to ensure Chinese participation in the upcoming 5G bonanza. Conflict is on the horizon, potentially pitting the European Commission against the biggest financial contributor to the bloc.

Is telecom losing Europe’s next generation employees?

Telecoms companies did not feature in the top employers’ lists chosen by the current and potential young employees in a recent multi-country survey.

The Swedish consulting firm Academic Work recently published the results of a survey on current and future young employees in six European countries, which asked the respondents to choose their most “aspired” employer, hence the title of the survey “Young Professional Aspiration Index (YPAI) 2018”. Among the three Nordic countries where it broke down the details of the employers the young people most like to work for, Google came on top in all of them (it tied with Reaktor in Finland, the consulting firm behind the country’s big AI drive). None of the telecom companies, be it telcos or telecom equipment makers, made to the top-10’s.

 YPAI 2018

The survey was done in the four Nordic countries (Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark) plus Germany and Switzerland. Nearly 19,000 young people, a mixture of students (22%), current employed (59%), as well as job seekers (15%) answered the survey. The majority of the respondents came out of Sweden, while just under 1,000 respondents were registered from Finland and Norway. Presumably the sample sizes were not big enough in the other three countries to break down the top-10 company lists.

YPAI 2018 respondents

In addition to asking the respondents to name their preferred employers, the survey also asked them about their most important criteria when choosing a place to work. “Good working environment and nice colleagues” came on top in four out of the six countries (chosen by 60% of the respondents in Sweden, 78% in Denmark, 73% in Germany, and 66% in Switzerland). It tied with “Leadership” in Sweden. In Finland coming on top was “varied and challenging tasks”, chosen by 60% of those who answered the survey, while in Norway 64% of the young people surveyed chose “training / development opportunities” as the most important criterion.

Once upon a time (i.e. around the turn of the century), telecom was THE industry to work in. It has been losing some of its old lustre to the internet giants. If they “aspire” to re-take the top spot of the young people’s mind share, the Ericssons and Nokias and Telenors of the world may want to refer to these criteria when promoting their corporate image, as a starting point.