India defies global trends as smartphone shipments grow 20%

IDC has released its quarterly estimates of smartphone shipments for India, claiming 33.5 million units were sold across the period, a year-on-year increase of 20%.

While this is great news for Indian telcos and smartphone manufactures, capitalising on the country’s late charge towards the digital economy, global trends are not as positive. Broader estimates from IDC put global smartphone shipments down 1.8% over the course of the second quarter, though in shipping 95 million devices, the three month period was a positive one for Huawei.

“Huawei has had a stellar quarter worldwide moving into the second position, toppling Apple,” said Upasana Joshi of IDC. “In India, with a refreshed focus it has been able to grow its share in the online space in the last two quarters, on the back of several new launches across price segments. IDC believes Huawei should be seen as a serious long-term player in India market with all the ingredients to challenge Xiaomi and Samsung.”

As the wealthier markets worldwide are no-longer looking as glorious for the smartphone manufacturers, with many hitting a glass ceiling in terms of smartphone penetration to population, India is a very attractive proposition. The young, increasingly affluent, population are ready to be sold to. Largely thanks to the Reliance Jio disruption, the digital revolution is fast taking over the country with data consumption rising healthily quarter-on-quarter. Jio consumers use on average 10.6 GB of data per month, including 15.4 hours of video. The appetite for the digital economy and more premium devices usually go hand-in-hand.

While the majority of devices are still low- to medium-end, shipments of high-end devices (those worth more than $500) doubled year-on-year, with the Samsung Galaxy S9 series and OnePlus 6 being crowned winners. OnePlus surpassed Apple to take second place in the premium market share rankings. That said, consumers are taking advantage of financing schemes in the offline channels to snap up deals, average selling price decreased from $167 to $157 for the quarter, while demand for feature phones continues to be strong, growing 29% year-on-year.

In terms of capitalising on the opportunity right now, Xiaomi took top spot for shipments over the three months, increasing its shipments by 107% year-on-year and capturing 29.7% of total market share. Samsung captured 23.9% of shipments, though with Huawei continuing to make solid progress worldwide it might not be too long before it starts making its mark on the India market.

AR and VR headsets nosedive in Q1

Shipments of augmented and virtual reality headsets have plummeted year-on-year across the first quarter, according to statistics from IDC, as telcos unbundle the kit from premium contracts and handsets.

Despite the poor performance in the first quarter, down 30.5% year-on-year, totalling 1.2 million units, IDC does forecast the segment to return to growth for the remainder of 2018 as more vendors target the commercial AR and VR markets and low-cost standalone VR headsets such as the Oculus Go make their way into stores. The team estimate sales will increase to 8.9 million units in 2018, up 6%, with growth continuing upwards to 65.9 million by 2022.

“On the VR front, devices such as the Oculus Go seem promising not because Facebook has solved all the issues surrounding VR, but rather because they are helping to set customer expectations for VR headsets in the future,” said Jitesh Ubrani of IDC. “Looking ahead, consumers can expect easier-to-use devices at lower price points. Combine that with a growing line-up of content from game makers, Hollywood studios, and even vocational training institutions, and we see a brighter future for the adoption of virtual reality.”

Although bundling has become unpopular for the telcos, it is worth noting the importance of such sales models. Smartphone penetration was incredibly rapid in comparison to other technological breakthroughs, partly because consumers have more disposable income, but also bundling made the process of purchasing a device simpler and more cost effective. It normalised the product, before consumers become more savvy shoppers, exploring data only tariffs and separate purchases of devices. Telcos might not like bundling devices into contracts, but it is a very important factor in the progression of the data and digital economy, and aiding the market penetration of new devices.

Augmented reality is going to be the poster child of the segment for the immediate future, it is far more accessible, though it shouldn’t be too long before virtual reality starts making waves. IDC forecasts virtual reality headsets to grow from 8.1 million in 2018 to 39.2 million by the end of 2022, believing the commercial market to be equally important and predicts it will grow from 24% of VR headset shipments in 2018 to 44.6% by 2022.

AR and VR has certainly been making progress over the last 12 months, admittedly quite slowly, hopefully Q1 is simply a blip in the progress.

Canalys reckons Apple Watch shipments exploded in Q4 2017

Estimates from research firm Canalys put the number of Apple Watches shipped in Q4 2017 at 8 million, which is apparently more than the entire Swiss watch industry.

Apple doesn’t break out its Apple Watch shipments publicly, so these are only estimates, but probably good ones as that’s Canalys’ day job. Furthermore there seems to be some consensus with IDC tweeting similar vibes ahead of publishing its hard estimates. Either way it looks like the latest version of the Watch is gaining some momentum.

“The cellular version of the Apple Watch was in strong demand in the US, Japan and Australia, where all major operators stocked it in time for the holiday season,” said Vincent Thielke of Canalys. “But limited operator selection in the UK, Germany and France influenced consumer purchase decisions, and stifled the growth potential of the connected Apple Watch. Moving into new markets, such as Singapore and Hong Kong in Q1 2018, just in time for Chinese New Year, is a good move.”

Business Insider had a look at the claim made in the IDC tweet about the Swiss watch industry and its official source of data, which seems to indicate Q4 2017 exports of Swiss watches in the region of 6-7 million. There are, of course, other sources of conventional watches but Apple does seem to be aiming more towards the luxury end.

What to read into this trend, however, is far from clear. It’s not known to what extent the most recent shipments were influenced by operator bundling, nor how much more seasonal smart watch sales are than conventional ones. Furthermore Swiss brands such as Rolex tend to be very expensive and so should be expected to sell in lower volumes.

The Canalys chart for the full year is below, which implies 100% of the Apple Watches shipped in Q4 were the new series. It’s interesting to note some traction for the modem-enabled ones since it’s unlikely many users will leave the house without their phone anyway, unless they’re going for a run.

Canalys 2017 Apple Watch