Grey clouds gather over Apple as Netflix snubs imminent streaming service

Apple is on the verge of announcing something big, but its TV streaming ambitions have been undermined as Netflix dismisses any tie-up with the iLeader.

Speaking at a press event at the streaming giants HQ, CEO Reed Hastings said Netflix would not be partnering with Apple or allowing its content to be hosted on any streaming service it might announce. There are a lot of unknowns about the Apple announcement on March 25, but at least this has been cleared up.

Rumours suggest Apple is going to create a streaming platform which could potentially compete against Netflix, though this is only one facet of the increasingly fragmented content landscape. With Disney and AT&T’s WarnerMedia also set to weigh-in, consumer frustrations are unlikely to be relieved any time soon.

With content becoming increasingly fragmented, a platform which brings everything together could be the winning formula.

“Content aggregation is the holy grail,” said Paolo Pescatore of PP Foresight. “There is too much fragmentation in video/TV; no-one wants to sign up to different services and have numerous apps. It is a disastrous experience.

“Beyond having the right content, the user experience is key. This means getting the content people want in one place, with one bill, universal search and all that jazz. In reality, this is hard to achieve as typically half of a household wants sport and the other half want entertainment, movies and kids shows.

“Netflix has done a great job to date. However, more content and media owners will pull programming off its offering. This represents a significant opportunity for the likes of Apple who has scale and greater resources. There is a role for a small number of players in the future.”

One question which should get a lot of people thinking is what does an effective content aggregator platform look like?

  1. Single bill
  2. Single sign-in/authentication
  3. Integrated content library
  4. Universal search
  5. Consistent customer experience
  6. An excellent recommendation engine
  7. Buy-in from majority of content owners/creators

However, just because it is easy to set out the conditions for an excellent content aggregator platform, doesn’t mean it will a simple task to figure out. The final point, getting the buy-in from the content owner/creator ecosystem, is where anyone with such grand ambitions will find the biggest issue.

The best effort we have seen so far is Sky in the UK. Why? Because it has somehow managed to convince Netflix to let its content be hosted on the Sky discovery platform not its own.

Some might suggest a disproportionate amount of news in the content world is focused on Netflix, but there is good reason for that; Netflix is the best. Few can compete with the current depth and breath of content, the user experience, marketing clout and foresight of Reed Hastings and his team.

Without Netflix on an aggregator platform, there does seem to be a big hole. One of the issues is Netflix does not like handing across the experience associated with its assets to partners. It knows how to keep its subscribers happy so why would it allow a partner to potentially tarnish this reputation.

This is what has made the Sky partnership all the more impressive. Netflix has allowed its assets to be hosted alongside Sky’s on Sky’s discovery platform, marrying two of the best content libraries available to UK consumers in the same place. This is the sort of partnership which ticks all the criteria listed above.

Sky has made an excellent start on the aggregator model, but it needs to continue to add new partnerships, increasing the depth and breadth of its content library to ensure it continues to dominate the premium TV space. Amazon Prime should be a key target.

An interesting development over the next couple of months will be the impact of Disney’s streaming proposition. It will put a dent into Netflix, but how much remains to be seen. Disney does not have the depth or breadth of content Netflix is able to offer, the ‘originals’ and the newly generated local content around the world take it to another level, though Disney will be an excellent partner to have.

We do not want to decide on the Apple streaming proposition until we have had a chance to actually see it but losing Netflix as a potential partner is a significant dent. However, as long as gathers the buy-in from enough partners, creating a proposition which ticks all the criteria we have listed, there is hope for Apple is the services arena.

Almost half of UK value streaming video over pay TV

A report by EY showed 44% of UK households think they get better value from streaming services than from any pay TV operators.

This is one of the key findings from “Zooming in on household viewing habits”, a follow-up deep-dive on the annual survey EY conducted last September, which covered 2,500 UK families. This message from the UK consumers was also corroborated by a separate, US-focused research by Deloitte, where nearly half of all pay TV subscribers said they were dissatisfied with their service, and 70% felt they were getting too little value for their money.

One of the key themes coming out of the deep-dive into the UK family’s media consumption habits is the ascendency of the consumption of content over the Internet, at the expense of pay TVs. Despite that cord-cutting has not yet hit the UK hard, 54% of all families are already spending more time on the Internet than in front of the traditional TV, including two-thirds of young users primarily watch content on streaming platforms.

“It’s no surprise the UK is becoming a nation of streamers, but our research shows just how enthusiastically households have embraced it. Over the next 12-18 months we will see the launch of new streaming services to further sate the UK’s appetite for content,” said Martyn Whistler, Global Lead Media and Entertainment Analyst at EY. “However, reports of the demise of traditional TV seem a little premature. Our research shows their popularity is undiminished, with viewers watching them more now than in previous years.”

Although this could spell even more bad news for the pay TV operators, when the consumers do watch broadcast TV, 51% of households mainly just watch the five traditional “free” channels (if you did not count the £150 TV licence as “pay”), up from 46% in 2017.

In general consumers are much more tolerant towards pay TV carrying ads than streaming services do. But, still, more consumers are also willing to pay for the content they like. For example, Netflix ranked number one on the table of apps by consumer spending, according to App Annie. And the Deloitte report showed that in the US, a consumer would subscribe to up to three on-demand streaming services at the same time. The willingness to pay has even extended to catch-up watching, especially to get rid of the ads, according to the report. 18% surveyed would be happy to pay more to stream ad-free catch-up TV, up from 16% in 2017.

Another trends that stood out in the report is the diversification of content consumption platforms and its problems. A third families stream video on multiple screens, while 62% of the 18-24-year olds do so. Meanwhile, a quarter of all households have found it hard to track the availability of their favourite content across different services, apps and platforms. This number went up to 39% among the 18-24-year olds, which should be more tech-savvy.

These trends combined can have some implications for how content is produced, distributed, and monetised. For example, if consumers will most likely binge watch content on streaming services (e.g. the average Netflix user would stream two hours a day), the idea of “episode”, which has worked on broadcast TV, will be less relevant. Or should a long series be released all at once on a streaming platform, or making it available episode by episode as the conventional TV broadcasting does? How should pay TV services improve not only its users’ account management, but also the content’s ID management, to provide more pleasant experience for cross-platform and cross-device users?

As Praveen Shankar, EY’s Head of Technology, Media and Telecommunications for the UK & Ireland, put it: “Our survey demonstrates that audiences are struggling to keep track of their favourite content across various platforms and they are confused by the choices available to them. Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) companies need to move away from programme guides and big budget marketing and build artificial intelligence (AI) enabled recommendation engines to push content. This will improve user experience, reduce costs and maximise assets.”

On-demand video streaming has surely gained more impetus again in the last few days. CanalPlus has just launched its own streaming service Canal+ Séries, and Apple is widely expected to unveil a version of video on-demand service on 25 March at an event on its own campus.

Who’s got the stones to buy Netflix?

Apple, Disney, Microsoft or Apple; one of the biggest questions which has circled the technology industry over the last couple of years is who could possibly acquire Netflix?

The streaming giant, Wall Street’s darling, has almost constantly been talked up as an acquisition target. However, another year has passed and it’s another year where no-one managed to capture the content beast. You have to start to wonder whether it will ever happen, but here we’re going to have a look at who might be in the running.

Netflix numbersWith subscriptions totalling more than 148 million, 2018 revenues exceeding $15.7 billion and operating income up to $1.6 billion, Netflix would certainly be a useful addition to any company. However, with market capitalisation now roughly $143 billion and debt which would make your eyes water, an acquisition would be a scary prospect for almost everyone.

First and foremost, let’s have a look at some of the players who might have been in the equation, but alas, no more.

Disney has been a rumoured acquirer for almost as long as Netflix existed. This is an incredibly successful company, but no-one is immune to the shift tides of the global economy and consumer behaviour. Getting in on the internet craze is something which should be considered critical to Disney, and Netflix would have given them a direct-to-consumer channel. However, there was always a feeling Disney would develop its own proposition organically and this turned out to be the case.

AT&T is another company which might have been in the fray, but its Time Warner acquisition satisfied the content needs of the business. All telcos are searching to get in on the content cash, developing converged offerings, and AT&T is a company which certainly has a big bank account. As mentioned above, the acquisition of Time Warner completes rules this business out.

There are of course others who might have been interested in acquiring the streaming giant, but for various reasons they would not be considered today. Either it would be way too expensive, wouldn’t fit into the company’s objectives or there is already a streaming service present. But now onto the interesting stuff, who could be in the running.

Microsoft logo

Microsoft

From doom to gloom, CEO Satya Nadella has certainly turned fortunes around at Microsoft. Only a few years ago, Microsoft was a shadow of its former self as the declining PC industry hit home hard. A disastrous venture into the world of smartphones was a slight detour but under the cloud-orientated leadership of Nadella, Microsoft is back as a lean, mean tech heavyweight.

Alongside the cloud computing business, Microsoft has also successfully lead the Xbox brand into the digital era. Not only is the platform increasingly evolving into an online gaming landscape, but it also lends itself well to sit alongside the Netflix business. If Microsoft wants to compete with Amazon across the entire digital ecosystem, both consumer and enterprise, it will need to expand the business into more consumer channels.

For Netflix, this might be an interesting tie up as well. Netflix is a business which operates through a single revenue stream at the moment, entertainment, and might be keen to look at new avenues. Gaming and eSports are two segments which align well with Netflix, opening up some interesting synergies with Microsoft’s consumer business.

“Microsoft is at a crossroads,” said independent telco, media and tech analyst Paolo Pescatore. “Its rivals have made big moves in video and it needs to follow suit. The acquisition addresses this and complements its efforts with Xbox. The move also strengthens its growing aspirations in the cloud with Azure, firmly positioning itself against Amazon with AWS and Prime video.”

However, while this is a company which could potentially afford to buy Netflix, you have to wonder whether it actually will. The Netflix culture does not necessarily align with Microsoft, and while diversification into new channels is always attractive, it might be considered too much of a distraction from the cloud computing mission. Nadella has already stated he is targeting the edge computing and AI segments, and considering the bounties on offer there, why bother entertaining an expensive distraction.

Apple Store on 5th Avenue, New York City

Apple

Apple is another company which has billions floating in free cash and assets which could be used to leverage any transaction. It is also a company which has struggled to make any effective mark on the content world, excluding iTunes success. With Netflix, Apple could purchase a very successful brand, broadening the horizons of the business.

The last couple of months have shown Apple is not immune to the dampened smartphone trends. Sales are not roaring the same way they were during yesteryear, perhaps because there has been so little innovation in the segment for years. The last genuine disruption for devices probably came from Apple a decade ago when it ditched the keyboard. Arguably everything else has just been incremental change, while prices are sky-rocketing; the consumer feels abused.

To compensate for the slowdown, CEO Tim Cook has been talking up the software and services business unit. While this has been successful, it seems not enough for investors. Netflix would offer a perfect opportunity for Apple to diversify and tap into the recurring revenues pot which everyone wants to grab.

However, Netflix is a service for anyone and everyone. Apple has traditionally tied services into Apple devices. At CES, we saw the firm expand into openness with new partnerships, but this might be a step too far. Another condemning argument is Apple generally likes to build business organically, or at least acquire to bolster existing products. This would stomp all over this concept.

Alibaba Logo

Alibaba

A Chinese company which has been tearing up trees in the domestic market but struggled to impose itself on the international space, Alibaba has been hoping to replicate the Huawei playbook to dominate the world, but no-where near as successfully.

Perhaps an internationally renowned business is exactly what Alibaba needs to establish itself on the international space. But what is worth noting is this relationship could head the other direction as well; Netflix wouldn’t mind capitalising on the Chinese market.

As with any international business a local business partner is needed to trade in China. Alibaba, with its broad reach across the vast country, could prove to be a very interesting playmate. With Netflix’s Eastern ambitions and Alibaba’s Western dreams, there certainly is dovetail potential.

However, it is very difficult to believe the current US political administration would entertain this idea. Aside from aggression and antagonistic actions, the White House has form in blocking acquisitions which would benefit China, see Broadcom’s attempted acquisition of Qualcomm. This is a completely different argument and segment but considering the escalating trade war between the US and China, it is hard to see any tie up between these two internet giants.

Google Logo

Google

If you’re going to talk about a monstrous acquisition in Silicon Valley, it’s difficult not to mention Google. This is one of the most influential and successful businesses on the planet with cash to burn. And there might just be interest in acquiring Netflix.

Time and time again, Google has shown it is not scared of spending money, a prime example of this is the acquisition of YouTube for $1.65 billion. This might seem like pocket change today, but back in 2006 this was big cash. It seemed like a ridiculous bet for years, but who is laughing now?

The issue with YouTube is the business model. Its advertiser led, open to all and recently there have been some PR blunders with the advert/content alignment. Some content companies have actively avoided the platform, while attempts to create a subscription business have been unsuccessful. This is where Netflix could fit in.

“Google has made numerous failed attempts to crack the paid online video landscape,” said Pescatore. “Content and media owners no longer want to devalue their prized assets by giving it away on YouTube. Acquiring Netflix gives Google a sizeable subscriber base and greater credibility with content and media owners.”

Where there is an opportunity to make money, Google is not scared about big cash outlays. Yes, Netflix is a massive purchase, and there is a lot of debt to consider, but Google is an adventurous and bold enough company to make this work.

However, you have to question whether the US competition authorities would allow two of the largest content platforms to be owned by the same company. There might not necessarily be any direct overlap, but this is a lot of influence to have in one place. Authorities don’t generally like this idea.

Verizon Logo

Verizon

Could Verizon borrow a page from the AT&T playbook and go big on a content acquisition? Perhaps it will struggle to justify the expense to investors, but this one might make sense.

Verizon has been attempting to force its way into the diversification game and so far, it has been a disaster. While AT&T bought Game of Thrones, Verizon went after Yahoo to challenge the likes of Google and Facebook for advertising dollars. A couple of data breaches later, the content and media vision looks like a shambles. Hindsight is always 20/20 but this was a terrible decision.

However, with a 5G rollout to consider, fixed broadband ambitions and burnt fingers from the last content acquisition, you have to wonder whether the team has the stomach to take on such a massive task. Verizon as a business is nothing like Netflix and despite the attractive recurring revenues and value-add opportunities, the integration would be a nightmare. The headache might not be worth the reward.

You also have to wonder whether the telco would be scared off by some of the bold decisions made from a content perspective. Telcos on the whole are quite risk-adverse organizations, something which Netflix certainly isn’t. How many people would have taken a risk and funded content like Stranger Things? And with the release of Bandersnatch, Netflix is entering the new domain of interactive content. You have to be brave and accept considerable risk to make such bets work; we can’t see Verizon adopting this mentality.

Softbank Logo

Softbank Vision Fund

Another with telco heritage, but this is a completely different story.

A couple of years back, Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son had a ridiculous idea which was mocked by many. The creation of a $100 billion investment fund which he would manage seemed unimaginable, but he found the backers, made it profitable and then started up a second-one.

Son is a man to knows how to make money and has the right connections to raise funds for future wonderful ideas. Buying Netflix might sound like an absurd idea, but this is one place we could really see it working.

However, the issue here is the business itself. While Son might be interested in digital ventures which are capable of making profits, the aim of the funds have mainly been directed towards artificial intelligence. Even if Son and his team have bought into other business segments, they are more enterprise orientated. There are smaller bets which have been directed towards the consumer market, but would require an investment on another level.

Tencent Logo

Tencent

Another Chinese company which has big ambitions on the global stage.

This is a business which has been incredibly successful in the Chinese market and used assets effectively in the international markets as well. The purchase of both Epic Games and Supercell have spread the influence of the business further across the world and numerous quarterly results have shown just how strong Tencent’s credentials are in the digital economy.

Tencent would most likely be able to raise the funds to purchase the monster Netflix, while the gaming and entertainment portfolio would work well alongside the streaming brand. Cross selling would be an option, as would embedding more varied content on different platforms. It could be a match made in heaven.

However, you have to bear in mind this is a Chinese company and the political climate is not necessarily in the frame to consider such as transaction. Like Alibaba, Tencent might be viewed as too close to the Chinese government.

No-one

This is an option which is looking increasingly likely. Not only will the business cost a huge amount of money, perhaps a 30-40% premium on market capitalisation, the acquirer will also have to swallow all the debt built-up over the years. There will also have to be enough cash to fuel the content ambitions of Netflix, it reportedly spend $7.5 billion on content last year.

Finally, the acquirer would also have to convince Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, as well as the shareholders, that selling up is the best option.

“If I was a shareholder or Reed Hastings, I’d be wondering whether it is better to be owned by someone else or just carry on what we’re doing now,” said Ed Barton, Practise Lead at Ovum.

“These guys are going down in business school history for what they have done with Netflix already, do they need to sell out to someone else?”

Netflix is growing very quickly and now bringing in some notable profits. The most interesting thing about this business is the potential as well. The US market might be highly saturated, but the international potential is massive. Many countries around the world, most notably in Asia, are just beginning to experience the Netflix euphoria meaning the growth ceiling is still years away.

What this international potential offers Netflix is time, time to explore new opportunities, convergence and diversification. Any business with a single revenue stream, Netflix is solely reliant on subscriptions, sits in a precarious position, but with international growth filling the coffers the team have time to organically create new business streams.

Ultimately, Hastings and his management team have to ask themselves a simple question; is it better to control our own fate or answer to someone else for a bumper payday? We suspect Hastings’ bank account is already bursting and this is a man who is driven by ambition, the need to be the biggest and best, breaking boundaries and creating the unthinkable.

Most of these suitors will probably be thinking they should have acquired Netflix years ago, when the price was a bit more palatable, but would they have been able to drive the same success as Hastings has done flying solo? We suspect not.

Netflix doubles profit but Wall Street not very happy

Netflix has increased its annual revenues by 35% and doubled profits over the course of 2018, but that didn’t prevent a 3.8% share price drop in overnight trading.

Total revenue across the 12-month period stood at $15.7 billion, though growth does seem to be slowing. Year-on-year revenue increases for the final three months were 27.4%, with 21.4% for the first quarter of 2019, though this compares to 40.4%, 40.3% and 34% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 respectively. However, when you consider the size, scale and breadth of Netflix nowadays this should hardly be considered surprising.

“For 20 years, we’ve been trying to please our members and it’s really the same focus year-after-year,” said CEO Reed Hastings during the earnings call.

“We’ve got all these ways to try to figure out, which shows work best, which product features work best, we’re a learning organization and it’s the same virtuous cycle, improve the service for our members. We grow. That gives us more money to invest. So, it’s the same things we’ve always been doing at just greater scale.”

This is perhaps the reason Netflix has succeeded in such a glorious manner where others have succumbed to mediocrity or failure. Investments have been massive to build out the breadth of content, while the team has not been afraid to alter its business or invest in content which others might snub. Bird Box is a classic example of a movie some might dismiss, whereas we find it difficult many competitors would have given the greenlight to the original Stranger Things pitch.

On the content side of things, investments over the last twelve months totalled $7.5 billion and Hastings promises this will increase in 2019. Perhaps we will not see the same growth trajectory, as despite the ambitions of the team, another objective for Netflix pays homage to the investors on Wall Street. Operating margin increased to 10% during 2018, up from 4% a couple of years back, though the team plan on upping this to 13% across 2019.

Content is where Netflix has crowned itself king over the last few years, aggressively pursuing a varied and deep port-folio, though it will be pushing the envelope further with interactive story-telling.

“I would just say there’s been a few false starts on interactive storytelling in the last couple of decades,” said Chief Content Officer, Ted Sarandos. “And I would tell you that this one has got storyteller salivating about the possibilities.

“So we’ve been talking to a lot of folks about it and we’re trying to figure it out too meaning is it novel, does it fit so perfectly in the Black Mirror world that it doesn’t – it isn’t a great indicator for how to do it, but we’ve got a hunch that it works across all kinds of storytelling and some of the greatest storytellers in the world are excited to dig into it.”

The team are attempting to figure out what works and what doesn’t for the interactive-story segment, but this is one of the reasons why people are attracted to Netflix. The team are exploring what is capable, brushing the dust away from the niche corners and experimenting with experience. They aren’t afraid of doing something new, and the audience is reacting well the this.

Looking at the numbers, Netflix added 8.8 million paid subscribers over the final three months of 2018, 1.5 million in the US and 7.3 million internationally, taking the total number of net additions to 29 million across the year. This compares to 22 million across 2017, while the team exceeded all forecasts.

However, this is where the problem lies for Netflix; can it continue to succeed when it is not diversifying its revenues?

According to independent telco, tech and media Analyst Paolo Pescatore, the Netflix team need to consider new avenues if they are to continue the exciting growth which we have seen over the last couple of years. New ideas are needed, partnerships with telcos is one but we’ll come back to that in a minute, some of which might be branching out into new segments.

This is perhaps most apparent in the US market, as while there is still potentially room for growth, this is a space which is currently saturated with more offerings lurking on the horizon. Over the next couple of months, Disney and AT&T are going to launching new streaming services, while T-Mobile US have been promising its own version for what seems like years. If Netflix is to continue to grow revenues, it needs to appeal to additional users, while also adding bolt on services to the core platform.

What could these bolt-on services look like remains to be seen, though Pescatore thinks a sensible route for the firm to take would be into gaming and eSports. These are two blossoming segments, as you can see from the Entertainment Retailers Association statistics here, which lend themselves well to the Netflix platform and business model. Another area could be music streaming, though as this market is dominating by Spotify and iTunes, as well one with low margins, it might not be considered an attractive diversification.

The other area which might is proving to be a success for the business are partnerships with telcos.

“It’s sort of been this March from integration on devices and just makes that a point to engage with the service to doing things like billing, on behalf of or we do billing integration,” said Greg Peters, Chief Product Officer.

“And now the latest sort of iteration that we’re working with is, is bundling model, right. And so, we’re early on in that process, but I would say we’re quite excited by the results that we’re seeing.”

This is a relatively small acquisition channel in comparison to others, but it is opening up the brand to new markets in the international space, a key long-term objective, and allowing the team to engage previously unreachable customers. This is an area which we should expect to grow and flourish.

The partnerships side of the business is one which might also add to the revenue streams and depth of content. Pescatore feels this is another area where Netflix can generate more revenue, as the team could potentially offer additional third-party content, hosting on its platform for users to rent or purchase. Referral fees could be an interesting way to raise some cash and Netflix certainly has the relationships with the right people.

Netflix has long been the darling of Wall Street, but it might not be for much longer. The streaming video segment is becoming increasingly congested, while the astronomical growth Netflix has experienced might come to a glass ceiling over the next couple of years. The businesses revenues are reliant on how quickly the customer base grows; such a narrow focus is not healthy. Everyone else is driving towards diversification, and Netflix will need to make sure it considers it sooner rather than later.

The app economy is going from strength to strength

The latest report published by App Annie showed mobile apps had their best year in 2018, and will get better in 2019.

In the report titled “The State of Mobile in 2019 – The Most Important Trends to Know”, the mobile apps analytics firm App Annie showed the latest data of the mobile apps industry, as well as their projections for the near future.

In short, the apps industry is doing rather well. “Consumers spent $101 billion on apps globally in 2018. This is larger than the global live and recorded music industry, double the size of the global sneaker market, and nearly three times the size of the oral care industry,” said Danielle Levitas, EVP, Global Marketing & Insights, App Annie. “Mobile experiences are so central to how we live, work and play and with consumers spending 3 hours a day on mobile, it’s clear how vital this platform is for all businesses in 2019 and beyond.”

Here is a snapshot of the highlights:

App Annie 2019 Snapshot

A few additional data points also caught our eyes:

  • Consumers on average spent 50% more time in mobile apps in 2018 than they did in 2016. Social and Communications apps made up 50% of total time spent globally in apps in 2018, followed by Video Players and Editors (15%) and Games (10%);
  • In Indonesia, mobile users spent over 4 hours a day in apps — 17% of users’ entire day. In mature markets like the US and Canada, the average user spent nearly 3 hours a day in mobile apps in 2018;
  • On average, consumers in the US, Australia, South Korea, and Japan have over 100 apps on their smartphones;
  • 74% of all consumer spending on mobile apps was on games;
  • YouTube accounted for 9 of every 10 minutes spent in the top 5 video streaming apps in 2018. It was also the number 1 app by time spent in video streaming apps for all markets except China;
  • The global consumer spending on dating apps grew by 190% from 2016 to 2018. Tinder successfully defended its number 1 position.

In terms competition between apps and between companies, three Facebook apps occupied the top three spots on the table of monthly active users. The same trio also took the top spots on the most downloads table, but Facebook Messenger edge Facebook to the top. Netflix netted the highest consumer spend on apps (followed by Tinder), while Sony’s Fate/Grand Order sat at the top of the games enjoying the highest consumer spend. Tencent on the hand, thanks to its strong line-up of apps and games, was the company that consumers spent the most on in 2018.

App Annie 2019 MAU

App Annie 2019 downloads

App Annie 2019 spend

The firm predicted that in 2019, the total consumer spending in app stores will double that of the global box office, to reach $120 billion. When it comes to media consumption, the firm sees in 2019 that 10 minutes of every hour spent consuming media across TV and internet will come from video streaming on mobile. Increased availability of premium content and service will also help.

Two years ago, we started hearing from some quarters of the industry that apps economy was dead. To read the latest data from App Annie, that pronouncement was gravely premature.

As Nielsen reports shift away from cable TV Netflix announces biggest price hike

A recent Nielsen report on the evolution of US TV viewing habits reveals a 48% increase in the number of households switching entirely to over the air access.

16 million US homes – 14% of households – are now OTA-only, up from just 9% of households 8 years ago. This constituency is split into older viewers (6.6m) looking to save a few bucks by settling for the good, old broadcast antenna option, and younger SVOD (subscription video on demand) subscribers (9.4m), who get everything they need from services like Netflix and therefore see no need to pay for cable.

A significant characteristic of this latter category is a move away from the traditional TV to viewing on mobile devices. These smaller screens tend to lend themselves to solitary viewing rather than the more communal TV experience, something that is greatly facilitated by the on-demand nature of these services.

Nielsen OTA chart

Coinciding with the publication of this report is the announcement from Netflix of its biggest ever price rise in the US. The SVOD giant has been investing more than ever on original programming and has such a massive installed base that it seems to have decided it’s time to start thinking about justifying its massive valuation.

“We change pricing from time to time as we continue investing in great entertainment and improving the overall Netflix experience for the benefit of our members,” a Netflix spokesperson said in a somewhat redundant statement to Light Reading.

“For many users, Netflix is an indispensable video services,” said Tech, Media & Telco Analyst Paolo Pescatore. “There will not be much backlash (for now). This is certainly one way to increase revenue significantly. It needs to focus on financials as well as subscriber growth. Netflix is following the traditional pay TV model of increasing prices annually. Expect other countries to increase prices over coming months.”

Anecdotally linear TV viewing seems to be a dying phenomenon. Even when families congregate around the living room TV they’re just as likely to watch a DVD or streamed box set and, if this correspondent’s experience is anything to go by, people prefer to do their own thing on tablets. Netflix is currently the boss of that sector so it’s probably free to keep raising prices for a while yet.

Netflix back in the cash with 36% revenue growth

Last time Netflix reported its quarterly financials it disappointed investors. Three months later its back to its blistering best with revenues of $3.9 billion.

The year-on-year growth of 36% represents a strong quarter for the streaming giant, capturing 6.9 million additional subscriptions, the vast majority of which came from international markets. Net income stood at a healthy $403 million, compared to $130 million in the same period of 2017.

“Overall, this was a strong quarter for the company,” said independent analyst Paolo Pescatore. “Normal service has been restored.

“This was a key quarter for the company following the challenges of the prior one which was a one off and largely down to seasonality. More importantly strong growth in its overseas market is encouraging.”

Back in Amsterdam during this year’s IBC, the international markets were highlighted as critical to Netflix’s continued growth. This is not to say the US market has hit a glass ceiling, but with the current penetration (58 million subscribers) and intense competition for attention, this is not a market Netflix can use to continue the momentum investors have become accustomed to. For Maria Ferreras, VP of EMEA Business Development at Netflix, new markets, new content and new partnerships are key.

On the content side of things, the localisation strategy will have to be accelerated. Creating local content, using local production companies and journalists, is key for engagement, though with new rules in the European Union, the focus will have to be razor-sharp. The new rules will eventually require subscription streaming services to devote a minimum of 30% of their catalogue to European works, while some member states will force Netflix to reinvest the revenues realized in those markets back into local production. This is generally the Netflix strategy, though it might have to accelerate timelines.

In terms of localisation, this is not just on the content side; partnerships with regionalised pay TV providers, ISPs and mobile operators will continue to play a more prominent role. Such partnerships offer a faster route to the customer than organic marketing can, and there are already dozens of examples around the world. Examples from this quarter include the first mobile bundle in Japan with KDDI and an expanded partnership with Verizon to pre-install the Netflix app on Android phones.

“All of its rivals are now making huge bets on video and it cannot afford to be left behind,” said Pescatore. “It now needs to rely more than ever on its extensive cable and telco relationships.”

For the next quarter, Netflix is again expecting good things. Revenues are expected to grow 26% to roughly $4.2 billion, with the team targeting an additional 9.4 million subscriptions. The international markets will be the primary generator of this growth, expected to add an additional 7.6 million subscriptions, though only growing revenues by 10%. With offers and partnerships playing a strong role in creating this momentum, lower revenue growth is to be expected.

Netflix is the premier streaming service worldwide and it doesn’t look like it is going to lose that position anytime soon. Amazon’s own content business is making progress as well, while Disney is bound to offer some resistance, but Netflix is still dominant. New partnerships in the international markets and an increased focus on regionalised content will only add to the momentum. 26% growth over the next three months is a big ask, but the signs are all positive.

Tech firms dominate Millennial Rankings for positive buzz – YouGov

Netflix number one, Spotify number two and Primark number three; who doesn’t love cheap pants though.

For the second year in a row, Netflix has topped the list of most positively talked about brands in the UK according to market research firm YouGov. Claiming the crown is certainly a positive, however the technology industry took seven of the top ten spots in the list.

“Netflix’s popularity shows no signs of abating,” said Michael Stacey, Marketing Insights Manager at YouGov. “The streaming service continues to expand its offering, as well as investing in its own ‘Netflix originals’. By its very nature Netflix’s content invites discussion, and YouGov’s rankings show that the brand has certainly harnessed the power of word of mouth recommendations to gain a loyal following among a younger generation of viewers.”

While the research was limited to 18-34 year olds and what they have discussed in favourable terms among family and friends, it is perhaps a good measure of the tomorrows dominant players. This demographic is a key one for many advertisers because of the potential in years to come. Creating a favourable relationship with those individuals today with almost certainly benefit these businesses tomorrow.

Aside from Netflix and Spotify, the top ten featured Apple, Facebook, iPhone, PlayStation and AirBnB. Unsurprisingly for the demographic, budget brands also featured, Primark and Ikea, as well as everyone’s favourite chicken nugget vendor McDonalds.

Interestingly enough, Google made positive moves in this years’ rankings with the Pixel brand. This uplift was partly down to word of mouth as well as internet sentiment, perhaps suggesting positive experience with the device as opposed to those simply being swayed by engaging advertising or PR stunts.

What is worth noting is this is only a measure of the positive things which have been said about the business; YouGov does not data about the nasty stuff. This is pity, reputations are more easily destroyed than enhanced, and we suspect Facebook might not feature as highly is this was factored into the equation.

YouGov

Sky convinces Netflix to do the thinkable: move titles off its platform

Having initially announced a tie-up earlier this year, Sky has somehow managed to convince Netflix to loosen the grip on customer experience, integrating its biggest titles into a very chunky on-demand package.

As part of the partnership, Netflix content will be hosted on the Sky platform, allowing customers to access a huge number of on-demand titles without having to navigate between different streaming apps. Having to navigate through different windows to find the right content can be a frustration for consumers which Sky is certainly addressing, though it does seem to contradict the Netflix ambition to standardise customer experience across all platforms and partnerships.

Across one page users will be able to navigate through Sky’s content such as Patrick Melrose and Tin Star, HBO’s Game of Thrones, Showtime’s Billions and now, Netflix titles such as The Crown, Stranger Things, The Kissing Booth, Making a Murderer and Queer Eye. It’s a lot of quality content for one place, cementing Sky’s position as the UK’s king of content.

“Sky wants to position itself as an aggregator of services as underlined by recent tie-ups, bringing services together is to be offer users a seamless and integrated service experience,” said independent telco and tech analyst Paolo Pescatore. “Therefore, the move further increases Sky’s own value as a one stop shop provider. More importantly it will also get access to Netflix’s catalogue and metadata which will prove more attractive to Disney.”

“Europe lags the US when it comes to cord cutting due to numerous reasons. Among other things the pay TV penetration is a lot lower in Europe and has been dominated by a handful of players. However, both regions are seeing huge growth in binge watching driven by changing user behaviour towards on demand programming.”

The mega on-demand deal will cost £10 a month, alongside a Sky Q subscription, with a 31-day rolling contract available as an option. It might be more expensive than a normal Netflix subscription, but with Sky’s box set content available for £5 a month, professional bingers will be able to save money combining the pair.

Sky Netflix

While this is a massive coup for Sky, it is a strange turn of events for Netflix. Last week at IBC 2018, Maria Ferreras, VP of EMEA Business Development at Netflix, stated that while the business was open to partnerships the experience would remain consistent across all platforms and partnerships. In allowing Sky to host its programming on its own content platform, Netflix has essentially handed over the management of customer experience. It’s an interesting announcement with Ferreras insisting maintaining a high-quality and standardized experience across all platforms was critically important for the business.

That said, another ambition of the business is to make its content as accessible as possible. Improving accessibility is one aspect of the strategy to secure additional subscriptions as the growth rate looks like it is beginning to wobble. Perhaps this is simply a compromise. As growth momentum slows executives have to make difficult decisions, some of which they will not like, and maybe this is one. The drive for new subscriptions seems to outweigh owning the customer experience.

Now before anyone gets too excited about this being a possibility for every content platform, this will probably not be the case. Ferreras highlighted last week that each partnership is weighed on its own individual merit. There are frameworks in place to guide the parameters of each relationship, though the end product will entirely depend on who is sitting on the opposite side of the table.

Taking this an example, Netflix might have been happy to hand over the customer experience management because Sky has an excellent content platform which it has spent years honing; it is a solid experience with content easy to find. Others cannot say the same, take Virgin Media for example. We cannot imagine Netflix would allow a similar integration of content due to the cumbersome nature of the TV offering.

The search for new subscriptions will certainly take Netflix into some interesting partnerships. After the last quarter’s results, were subscription growth looked to stagger, there might be more pressure for executives to loosen the stranglehold on the platform, and be more flexible when it is discussing partnerships. Netflix still has the upper-hand when it comes to negotiations, though if it wants to maintain its lofty market cap ($152 billion!!!) it will have to be more pliable. Offering more access to its valuable customer data and behaviour insight could be one of those areas.

IBC 2018: New content, new markets, new partners – the Netflix growth plan

Netflix is one of the largest technology companies on the planet, but there is still mountains of room for growth over the next few years.

Speaking at IBC 2018 in Amsterdam, Maria Ferreras, VP of EMEA Business Development at Netflix pointed towards some quite remarkable figures. In the 11 years since Netflix starting its streaming business the platform has amassed 130 million subscribers. While this is of course an astronomical figure, some might have assumed it would be higher. With profits of $2.8 billion over the last twelve months, the opportunity for growth is still buoyant.

The question which remains is how to do this. Netflix has been incredibly successful in securing subscriptions through its own marketing strategies, though partnerships with telcos and broadcasting businesses are top of the agenda for Ferreras.

“What is critical for us is making sure Netflix is available,” said Ferreras. “It’s all about making access easier.”

The idea behind these partnerships is creating opportunity. The partner organizations might not only have a better relationship with potential customers, but they also address some key challenges in terms of billing and experience.

On the billing side of things, Ferreras asks the industry not to use Western standards when assessing new territories. For example, in Saudi Arabia not only is credit card penetration low, a number of the domestic brands are not accepted by eCommerce sites. Partnering with the telcos offering consumers in this market an opportunity to pay through their own billing platforms. There are numerous other countries around the world where this could be the case, meaning partnerships with telcos offer an opportunity to engage new customers who were not accessible to the business before.

Looking at the experience, this is about accessibility once again, but a different twist. Here we are talking about the content aggregation model, taking away the complication of accessing content through multiple windows in the fragmented content ecosystem. With the Netflix app installed on set-top boxes, content platforms or smart TVs, the frustration of exiting applications before entering new ones is removed. With both billing and navigation, it’s all about simplifying the experience.

Such partnerships tie into another column in the growth plan; entry into new markets. While some territories have been experiencing the Netflix bonanza for more than a decade, there are still markets where the brand is a newbie or even non-existent. This is the simple aspect of the plan, launch in new regions, though the complication comes with the experience.

Some areas are mobile orientated, some have poor connectivity and some have lower-end devices. In each of these circumstances, the Netflix proposition needs to be adapted to standardize the experience over every device. This standardization also extends to the different partnerships as well. There is no such thing as differentiation here, the Netflix platform will be the same wherever you go.

The final pillar is localisation. Ferreras said Netflix will continue to aggressively expand its content portfolio, not only moving into new genres, but also creating content which is targeting specific countries or regions. This is where Netflix needs to improve in some regions, as the depth of content in the right language or genres lacks. It is a work in progress, though local co-production initiatives with partners will help accelerate this process,

One area Ferreras highlighted the business will not be heading is live sports. The objective of Netflix is to innovate through creating experiences which other platforms cannot. In sport, Netflix is increasing its portfolio with sports documentaries and interviews, though this is content to support the sports story. When delivering live sports to the consumer, not only does this not fit with the on-demand ethos of Netflix, but it cannot do anything different from traditional broadcasters. As a genre, live sports does not fit the bill.

Netflix might be an internet heavyweight, but the opportunity to grow is still quite surprising.