Public cloud gathering momentum in India – Gartner

Few countries are speeding towards the digital economy as quickly as India, and it seems the bug is catching as enterprise organizations start to surge spending on the public cloud.

Today’s India is almost unrecognisable from bygone years. With a renewed focus on digital from Government and regulatory agencies, telcos finally spending on networks and consumers demonstrating an incredible appetite for data, India is quickly closing the divide. An increase in public cloud spending only adds further confidence in progress.

“Moving to the cloud and investing in public cloud services have become imperative to the success of digital business initiatives,” said Gartner Analyst Sid Nag.

“It’s no longer a question of ‘why’, but a matter of ‘when’ organizations can shift to the cloud. We have entered the cloud 2.0 era, where organizations are adopting a cloud-first or a cloud-only strategy.”

Those who are of a certain age will remember the excitement which was drummed up around the ‘BRIC’ nations. The acronym described the economic potential of slumbering giants (Brazil, Russia, India and China), four countries with large population that were supposed to be the growth engines for international businesses around the world after growth in domestic markets slowed.

China certainly offered fortunes for those who were strategically savvy enough, while there has been some promise in Russia and Brazil. India was always the nation which undermined the BRICs theory, though it is quickly entering its own digital era.

According to Gartner estimates, public cloud investment from enterprise organisation will increase by 25% over the next 12 months. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) remains the largest segment, representing 42% of all investments, though this is the same journey many ‘developed’ nations took in bygone years. The team estimates SaaS cloud application services will total $1.4 billion over the next 12 months, an increase of 21%.

Segment 2018 2019 2020
Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) 284 363 461
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) 900 1,105 1,364
Business-Process-as-a-Service (BPaaS) 172 189 212
Cloud management and security 187 228 274
Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) 558 744 996

Figures in millions (US$)

As you can see from the figures above, spending has been steadily increasing year-on-year, though considering the size of India as a country, the potential is significant. However, there might be a challenge on the horizon unless all the cogs click into place.

CIOs across the market are suggesting there could be consolidation in the market as smaller players are replaced by the global power houses of the cloud economy, however with such potential money will have to be spent to ensure the digital infrastructure is in place.

This is where India has traditionally struggled. It was a ‘chicken and egg’ situation, with low ROI discouraging infrastructure investment, though inadequate infrastructure seemed to hobble potential profits. This conundrum does seem to be in the past, though there is still plenty of work to do to increase the data centre footprint, as well as ‘fibering up’ the nation to take advantage of future applications, both consumer and enterprise.

Amazon Web Services announced in May it would open a new Availability Zone in the AWS Asia Pacific (Mumbai) region due to customer demand, Microsoft Azure currently has three Availability Zones in the country and has partnered with Reliance Jio to boost its presence, Google is currently hiring very aggressively in the country, while IBM recently said it was focusing more acutely on SMEs to gain traction.

India still does not compete with the top nations around the world when it comes to digital readiness, but all the pieces do seem to be falling into place. Increased investments in public cloud services and infrastructure is more evidence this country is flying towards the digital economy.

The cloud is booming but no-one seems to have told Oracle

Revenues in the cloud computing world are growing fast with no end in sight just yet, but Oracle can’t seem to cash in on the bonanza.

This week brought joint-CEOs Safra Catz and Mark Hurd in front of analysts and investors to tell everyone nothing has really changed. Every cloud business seems to be hoovering up the fortunes brought with the digital era, demonstrating strong year-on-year growth, but Oracle only managed to bag a 2% increase, 1% for the cloud business units.

It doesn’t matter how you phrase it, what creative accounting processes you use, when you fix the currency exchange, Oracle is missing out on the cash grab.

Total Revenues were unchanged at $9.6 billion and up 2% in constant currency compared to the same three months of 2017, Cloud Services and License Support plus Cloud License and On-Premise License revenues were up 1% to $7.9 billion. Cloud Services and License Support revenues were $6.6 billion, while Cloud License and On-Premise License revenues were $1.2 billion. Cloud now accounts for nearly 70% of the total company revenues and most of it is recurring revenues.

Some might point to the evident growth. More money than last year is of course better, but you have to compare the fortunes of Oracle to those who are also trying to capture the cash.

First, let’s look at the cloud market on the whole. Microsoft commercial cloud services have an annual run rate of $21.2 billion, AWS stands at $20.4 billion, IBM $10.3 billion, Google cloud platform at $4 billion and Alibaba at $2.2 billion. Oracle’s annual run rate is larger than Google and Alibaba, those these two businesses are growing very quickly.

Using the Right Scale State of the Cloud report, enterprises running Google public cloud applications are now 19%, IBM’s applications are 15%, Microsoft at 58% and AWS at 68%. Alibaba is very low, though considering the scale potential it has in China, there is great opportunity for a catapult into the international markets. Oracle’s applications are only running in 10% of enterprise organizations who responded to the research.

Looking at the market share gains for last quarter, AWS is unsurprisingly sitting at the top of the pile collecting 34% over the last three months, Microsoft was in second with around 15%, while Google, IBM and Alibaba exceeded the rest of the market as well. Oracle sits in the group of ten providers which collectively accounted for 15% of cloud spending in the last quarter. These numbers shouldn’t be viewed as the most attractive.

Oracle is not a company which is going to disappear from the technology landscape, it is too important a service provider to numerous businesses around the world. However, a once dominant and influential brand is losing its position. Oracle didn’t react quick enough to the cloud euphoria and it’s looking like its being punished for it now.

Data Transfer Project could cut AWS cloud dominance – Equinix

Amazon’s cloud business, AWS, might be romping ahead of the pretenders in the market share rankings, but the progressing Data Transfer Project could see this lead eroded and the rise of more niche players.

In most sub-sectors of industry, the first to market usually commands a significant market share once the segment has been normalised. The vendor has an established business model, brand and customer base, however this dominance is usually eroded through competition over time. AWS’ position is standing the test of time, though Sachin Sony of Equinix believes the Data Transfer Project could lead to the end of this strangle hold.

“Interoperability between cloud environment will not only be beneficial to customers, but will open up opportunities for more niche providers to establish market share,” said Sony.

“Customers are now dictating the terms, changing the status quo. This is largely driven by the exponential growth in data, especially with IoT and big data, with customers now becoming the dictators on what cloud environment should look like.”

The Data Transfer Project is a collaboration between various organizations to build a common framework with open-source code that can connect any two online service providers, enabling a seamless, direct, user initiated portability of data between the two platforms. In short, it creates interoperability between the provider’s cloud environments to simplify the migration of data between one service and another.

Right now, migration is difficult, which has led to the dominance of the major cloud players. Companies like AWS secure a contract with an organization, but as migration is so difficult, customers are compelled to scale up with the same service. Customer retention becomes simpler, as the options to move are time consuming and expensive, meaning the larger organizations can spend more time securing more customers, who will grow, repeating the cycle.

While it does not sound like the end of the world, because of the difficulties in migrating data, niche service providers struggle to establish themselves. Sony suggested improving interoperability will allow for more resilient multi-cloud environments, where the hyperscale players can be used for more generic activities, and the niche players for more tailored and mission critical business processes. It might also encourage more organizations to transition more data to the cloud.

“When enterprises started moving to the cloud it was a great way to cut costs,” said Sony. “But companies did not think this through.

“When you go to a cloud based environment, you are making yourself captive of that vendor. It’s a very risky business model as it creates a single point of failure. When there have been outages, or the business expanded into new areas where that provider isn’t, complications arise. These organizations need diversification in their cloud environments. They need interoperability.”

Of course, whenever the customer starts dictating terms the big vendors tend to resist, and AWS is not an active contributor to the project at the moment. Why would it want to contribute to something which would destroy its dominant position in the industry? However, Sony thinks it is only a matter of time.

Interoperability is an attractive prospect for the customer as it offers security, resiliency and agility. Cutting costs is not the sole objective of the cloud-orientated business model anymore, therefore customers will look elsewhere at the expense of a couple of dollars should a provider not offer interoperability. It’s only a matter of time before AWS is forced into line.

This is not to say this project will cost AWS money. In theory, it should encourage more organizations to migrate data and more mission critical processes to the cloud, resulting in more business. But, this will be more business for everyone. Interoperability takes cloud from a specialist service to more of a commodity. The specialism will be creating unique and tailored environments, a service which will be offered by the smaller emerging players.

This project and the trend of interoperability will not cost AWS money, but it might cost it market share.

AWS continues to fuel profits at parent company

Amazon has released the results for the first half of 2018, with cloud business unit AWS accounting for just over 61% of the total operating income.

Sales across the group stood at $103.9 billion, while AWS accounted for $11.5 billion, with an impressive $6.1 billion coming in the second quarter, beating market expectations. Net income was reported at $4.1 billion for the half, and $2.5 billion for the quarter. This is now the third consecutive quarter the business has reported more than $1+ billion in net income, perhaps a welcome surprise for investors who have become accustomed to minimal profits and losses every three months.

“We’re very happy with the results we’re seeing, and the backlog that we see, and the new contracts and new customers and the expansion of existing customer business that we see,” said Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky. “Again, the business has accelerated the last three quarters, and we’re seeing great signs in a number of areas.”

While the success of AWS is unparalleled in the industry, there is still room for growth. Despite the cloud being old news, there are still a huge number of customers and workloads to migrate to the cloud, and new services to offer to these customers. AWS has already launched 800 new services and features so far this year, including the Database Migration Service which has been utilised 80,000 times over the six months, and there is scope for more. The cloud might seem like an old idea now, but with areas such as machine learning, AI, IoT, serverless computing and databases and analytics beginning to breach normality, the potential to make more cash is abundant.

As you can see from the market share graphic below, AWS is in a league of its own when it comes to the cloud services market. Google and Microsoft might be growing their own business at a faster rate, but these steps forward cannot bridge the sheer volume and breadth of customers in the AWS market share. Unfortunately for challengers outside the top four, it is looking increasingly unlikely the gulf will be bridged.

“Amazon Web Services and its three main challengers all turned in some exceptional growth numbers in the quarter,” said John Dinsdale of Synergy Research Group.

“Collectively those four firms alone accounted for well over three quarters of the sequential growth in cloud service revenues. In a large and strategically vital market that is growing at exceptional rates, they are throwing the gauntlet down to their smaller competitors by continuing to invest enormous amounts in their data centre infrastructure and operations. Their increased market share is clear evidence that their strategies are working.”

Looking at where money is being spent in the industry, public IaaS and PaaS services account for the bulk of the market, with these two segments growing by 53% over the last quarter. Total spend, IaaS, PaaS and hosted private cloud services, exceeding $16 billion for the quarter.