T-Mobile US bags another million, while AT&T makes doubles down on 5G claims

It’s been a busy day on the US side of the pond as T-Mobile US reported its full-year subscription figures, while AT&T promised a nationwide 5G rollout with few details.

Starting with the controversial and confrontational T-Mobile, the magenta army claims to have added total net customer additions of 2.4 million to the ranks over the last three months, while 2018 on the whole stood at 7 million total net adds. In the final quarter, the numbers stood at 1.4 million branded postpaid net additions, 1 million of which were branded postpaid phone net additions, making it the best quarter in four years.

“The T-Mobile team delivered our best customer results ever in Q4 2018 and we did it in a competitive climate while working hard to complete our merger with Sprint,” said John Legere, CEO of T-Mobile. “That’s 23 quarters in a row where more than 1 million customers have chosen T-Mobile – along with a postpaid phone churn result that’s below 1%. These customer results speak volumes about our company, our network and our brand.”

There is no question T-Mobile US has been a success story under the leadership of Legere, but the big question is how he has done it. In short, Legere has not conformed to the status quo, as you can probably pick up from his ranting and raving on social media, but hyper-targeted marketing has also played a role.

This is a strategy which has been in the making for some time now, the team promised to address markets and demographics which are apparently underserved, or blurred together with generic marketing campaigns. It seems to be the incremental increase approach to growth, but you can’t argue with success.

“…it’s the strategy we laid out for you, going back to 2015 and 2016 is in full effect now,” said COO Mike Sievert on the earnings call. “We said we were going to expand distribution, we did that. We said we were going to expand the segments that we go after and we did that. We were going to add a very serious focus on business, we did that. So, the results have the benefit of all those things in the runway now.

“So that’s a phenomenal uptick. Our suburban market share, we think is 14% to 15%. Our rural market share, we think is sub-10%. Military and older people, 55 plus, sorry Braxton. We think we have a 10%-ish share of both those segments that we’ve been focusing on for a year right now. So, lots of runway behind the strategy left to go, but you are starting to see, as we promised you would the effects of those investments now flowing through into our results.”

One segment which is in currently in the crosshair is enterprise customers. The team might have had one of the most successful quarters to date in this area, according to Sievert, but market share is very low currently. AT&T and Verizon naturally hold the lion’s share of the business, but T-Mobile US has already shown it is perfectly capable of making a challenge to the ‘duopoly’.

Looking ahead to the 5G bonanza, the T-Mobile team has decided to sit out the initial race, or how this has been spun by the PR ‘gurus’, instead focusing on the long-term nationwide charge.

“We are the only ones that have a plan to bring 5G nationwide in 2020,” said Sievert. “And the others are focused on millimetre wave in some places. We are bringing 5G everywhere we operate, and we are doing it by next year and that’s a real differentiator.”

In the pursuit of coverage and due diligence, Sievert is not being factually correct here, making a statement which is indeed inaccurate.

Looking over at the AT&T business, the team has made its own statement, perhaps an effort to redirect attention from the misleading statements it has made concerning ‘5Ge’. This marketing ploy is of course nothing more than an attempt to pray on the un-informed, using small print to its greatest effect, though whether the latest statement is any better we’ll leave you to decide.

Similar to T-Mobile US’ commitment to 5G, AT&T has now promised ‘nationwide mobile 5G footprint’ using sub-6 GHz spectrum by early 2020. The ambitions are certainly noteworthy from both parties, but what we are struggling to stomach at the moment are a lack of details; no-one has actually stepped forward to say what a nationwide rollout actually means.

Does this mean there will be a 5G footprint in every state? What percentage of the US will be covered by 5G? Will the rural communities have a taste of the new connectivity euphoria or will it simply be limited to the busiest sections of the largest cities? What transportation hubs will become a 5G hotspot? How many 5G cell sites are forecast for the time when nationwide 5G coverage will be claimed?

While we are being particularly critical of the claims, we believe this is necessary for an industry which is not always the most honest with its customers.

Although consumers should remain apathetic, though they probably won’t, to the 5G euphoria, or at least until there are 5G-specific services launched, the new networks will become a major marketing plug for the telcos. The marketing team need something new to talk about, and the ‘bigger, better, faster’ tendencies of these departments will ensure 5G is front-page news.

All of the 5G buzz means very little to the consumer right now, but don’t tell them that. However, on a more positive note, it is quite exciting at how quickly the 5G promise is becoming a reality.

Samsung warns sales and profits are going down the toilet

Korean giant Samsung has become the latest major tech company to warn about significant under-performance towards the end of 2018.

In its earnings guidance for Q4 18 Samsung Electronics advised that it expects sales of around 59 trillion Korean won and 10.8 trillion Korean won. In the same quarter a year ago it racked up sales of 66 trillion and profits of 15 trillion, so that’s a pretty major drop-off, especially for profit, with margin dropping from 23% to 18%.

Analysts expected a bit of a drop in profit, according to Bloomberg, but only as low at 13.8 trillion. The same story points the finger at the trade aggro between the US and China as a major reason for the drop off, citing reduced demand for memory chips which are a big thing for Samsung.

Among the companies presumably buying less chips is Apple, which also issued a sales warning last week, thanks largely to smartphone demand dropping off a cliff in China. Samsung has blamed its woes on ‘mounting macro uncertainties’ affecting chip sales and good old ‘intensifying competition’ in the smartphone market.

The latter claim seems somewhat implausible in the light of Apple’s recent admission. What seems more likely is that the downward trend in smartphone demand has accelerated, compounded by the fact that neither of Apple or Samsung’s latest flagship models offered much to entice people to upgrade. Two-year-old smartphones still do a decent job so upgrade cycles are extending, which means lower sales for the foreseeable future.

The HTC fall from grace is quite remarkable

In years gone, HTC was one of the most successful and sought-after smartphone brands worldwide, but time has not been kind for the Taiwanese firm as financials for 2018 emerge.

Back in 2012, your correspondent had a One X model HTC and it was a very good phone. Due to a slight malfunction more recently, there was also a couple of months with a second-hand HTC 10. It wasn’t a phone which set the world on fire (although ask Samsung how that went down), but it was a perfectly good device. Unfortunately, it appears the brand is just not doing enough right.

As you can see from the table below, 2018 has not been a kind year as the team brought in revenues of 23.7 billion New Taiwan Dollar (NTD), 61% down on 2017.

Month Revenue Year-on-year comparison
January 3,404 -27.03%
February 2,613 -44.04%
March 2,772 -46.66%
April 2,099 -55.47%
May 2,445 -46.03%
June 2,230 -67.64%
July 1,400 -77.41%
August 1,389 -53.72%
September 1,256 -80.71%
October 1,307 -78.44%
November 1,474 -73.98%
December 1,352 -66.36%
Full year 23,741 -61.78%

All figures in New Taiwan Dollar (millions)

Just as a comparison to previous years, in 2017 HTC brought in revenues of 62.120 billion NTD, 2016 was 78.161 billion NTD and 2015 was 121.684 billion NTD. If you go all the way back to 2012, the team brought in a remarkable 465.795 billion NTD.

Of course, you have to bear in mind the business has offloaded a substantial part of its business to Google for $1.1 billion, most notably c.2000 engineers who were working on the Pixel device anyway and a horde of IP, but HTC is still running as a standalone business. Back in November, Sprint announced it was partnering with Qualcomm and HTC to develop a mobile ‘smart hub’ that will run on 5G next year.

Every now and then it is useful just to look back through the years and remember how different things were. HTC used to be one of the mobile industry’s heavyweights, alas, no more. RIP HTC.

The cloud is booming but no-one seems to have told Oracle

Revenues in the cloud computing world are growing fast with no end in sight just yet, but Oracle can’t seem to cash in on the bonanza.

This week brought joint-CEOs Safra Catz and Mark Hurd in front of analysts and investors to tell everyone nothing has really changed. Every cloud business seems to be hoovering up the fortunes brought with the digital era, demonstrating strong year-on-year growth, but Oracle only managed to bag a 2% increase, 1% for the cloud business units.

It doesn’t matter how you phrase it, what creative accounting processes you use, when you fix the currency exchange, Oracle is missing out on the cash grab.

Total Revenues were unchanged at $9.6 billion and up 2% in constant currency compared to the same three months of 2017, Cloud Services and License Support plus Cloud License and On-Premise License revenues were up 1% to $7.9 billion. Cloud Services and License Support revenues were $6.6 billion, while Cloud License and On-Premise License revenues were $1.2 billion. Cloud now accounts for nearly 70% of the total company revenues and most of it is recurring revenues.

Some might point to the evident growth. More money than last year is of course better, but you have to compare the fortunes of Oracle to those who are also trying to capture the cash.

First, let’s look at the cloud market on the whole. Microsoft commercial cloud services have an annual run rate of $21.2 billion, AWS stands at $20.4 billion, IBM $10.3 billion, Google cloud platform at $4 billion and Alibaba at $2.2 billion. Oracle’s annual run rate is larger than Google and Alibaba, those these two businesses are growing very quickly.

Using the Right Scale State of the Cloud report, enterprises running Google public cloud applications are now 19%, IBM’s applications are 15%, Microsoft at 58% and AWS at 68%. Alibaba is very low, though considering the scale potential it has in China, there is great opportunity for a catapult into the international markets. Oracle’s applications are only running in 10% of enterprise organizations who responded to the research.

Looking at the market share gains for last quarter, AWS is unsurprisingly sitting at the top of the pile collecting 34% over the last three months, Microsoft was in second with around 15%, while Google, IBM and Alibaba exceeded the rest of the market as well. Oracle sits in the group of ten providers which collectively accounted for 15% of cloud spending in the last quarter. These numbers shouldn’t be viewed as the most attractive.

Oracle is not a company which is going to disappear from the technology landscape, it is too important a service provider to numerous businesses around the world. However, a once dominant and influential brand is losing its position. Oracle didn’t react quick enough to the cloud euphoria and it’s looking like its being punished for it now.