20 bean-counters walk into a bar and ask for a tonic water. The barman asks who picking up the bill, and all fingers are pointed towards Silicon Valley.
In southern Japan, finance ministers and representatives of the central banking organizations have gathered to discuss the world of international and domestic finance. Of course, G20 is about much more than spreadsheets and calculators, but this weekend saw the accountants gather, while in the next room, ministers for trade and the digital economy were setting the world to rights.
Starting with the accountants, Silicon Valley is to remain the political punching bag of 2019.
“Specifically, in the area of international taxation, we will continue to have discussions on a review of the existing tax framework triggered by digitalization, in addition to fighting against tax avoidance and evasion,” Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said in a statement.
Of course, these politicians are savvy enough not to target a specific segment or highlight companies who are abusing the grey areas in the system. There are numerous different organizations outside of the tech sector who are mistreating globalisation trends for tax benefits, though the tech giants are the ones in the limelight right now.
In the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, new ideas have been tabled suggesting governments around the world will be cracking down on the creative accounting techniques which are becoming ever-so-more common.
According to a communique seen by Reuters, the newly proposed rules would not only make it more difficult for the tech giants to make use of low-tax countries for their benefit, it would also work the other direction. Countries like Ireland, who have benefitted from offering loopholes to the tech giants, would have their freedoms curbed in the pursuit of fairness and a more level global approach.
The new rules would propose two different approaches to taxation. Firstly, companies would have to pay fair tax on the revenues which are derived in the country, and secondly, should the accountants find a way around these rules, a global minimum tax rate could also be introduced. It is the tax version of the Swiss Cheese model; the more layers which are incorporated, the more difficult it is to effectively create a tax evasion model for these organizations to follow.
For countries like the UK and France, this is a win, though the likes of Ireland, Luxembourg and the US will find the outcome frustrating. While the UK and France have been pushing for more stringent tax rules, Ireland and Luxembourg are attempting to protect the light-touch regulatory environments which benefits their own societies but screws everyone else.
The US has suggested any change to taxes was discriminatory to its own companies, effectively a raid on the US economy. Although US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has seemed relatively cordial in reaction to developments, it remains to see whether any further strain is placed on international relationships. The US is already struggling to maintain strong links with certain governments, and this presents another risk to stress relationships.
Mnuchin has also found himself in the news regarding the Huawei conundrum.
The US finance chief has said in Fukuoka that a trade deal between the US and China could ease the firm stance which is threatening to provide collateral damage all around the world. The statement quotes President Donald Trump, who made the suggestion over Twitter a few months back.
For those firms impacted by the ban, the reiteration of this statement might come as some relief, though critics will become increasingly frustrated. It seems the White House has little concern for collateral damage as long as its own ambitions are fulfilled. For the firms who supply products to Huawei or investors who have been left short by such a ban, the ease in which their livelihoods can be used by the White House as a disposable bargaining chip must be incredibly worrying.
This of course was a topic of conversation at the Ministerial Meeting on Trade and Digital Economy also.
“We continued our dialogue to mitigate risks and enhance confidence among exporters and investors, as we committed to do in Mar del Plata last year,” a briefing document states. “We affirmed the need to handle trade tensions and to foster mutually beneficial trade relations.”
While it might seem like a throw-away comment, perhaps we should appreciate the significance of recognising the situation. In most circumstances, governments would steer clear and allow the bickering duo to continue their chest-beating, however in recognising the circumstances perhaps we are closer to someone stepping in and de-escalating the situation.
Clearly neither the US or China can be trusted to be mature and manage the saga for a net-gain, so it might need a third-party to step in. As it stands, no-one is benefiting, and everyone is losing. The winner of this trade war will be the one which can be the least negatively impacted; that should not be considered an effective way to manage international relations.