Wearables and services are paying off for Apple

The iPhone is still the biggest contributor to the monstrous profits Apple claws in each quarter, but efforts in wearables and services are balancing out the company.

While Apple is not a company which is going to go bust at any point in the foreseeable future, the dependence on the performance of the iPhone was leaning onto the unhealthy side. With more consumers leaning towards second-hand, refurbished devices, or extending the life of products due to the eye-watering price of new iPhones, there was a threat to profitability.

For the most recent quarter, there are no worries about the profitability of Apple, however. Total revenues for the three-month period, including Christmas sales, stood at $91.8 billion, a 9% increase from the same period in 2019. Net income set a new record of $22.2 billion, while international sales accounted for 61%.

That said, efforts over the last few years to supercharge alternative revenue streams and diversify the profit channels have certainly been paying off. The iPhone is still king at Apple, but it is evolving into a different company.

Quarter Product Revenue Software and Services Revenue Ratio
Q1 2020 79,104 12,715 86.2/13.8
Q1 2019 73,435 10,875 88.2/12.8
Q1 2018 79,768 8,471 90.4/9.6

For the purpose of continuity, we have only selected Q1 for the above comparison. This is a quarter which contains the Christmas period and therefore revenues are almost incomparable to the rest of the year.

As you can see, there is a clear trend of Apple become less reliant on hardware for revenues and profits, with the Software and Services becoming more than a bolt-on bonus for investors. $12.715 billion is an amount most companies would be happy to call group revenues for the year.

Interestingly enough, even in the ‘product’ segment, the team is becoming less reliant on the iPhone to drive revenues and profits.

Quarter iPhone Mac iPad Wearables and Home
Q1 2020 55,957 (60.9%) 7,160 (7.8%) 5,977 (6.5%) 10,010 (10.9%)
Q1 2019 51,982 (61.6%) 7,416 (8.8%) 6,729 (8%) 7,308 (8.7%)
Q1 2018 61,576 (70%) 6,895 (7.9%) 5,862 (6.6%) 5,489 (6.2%)

In short, diversification of revenues is an excellent way forward for the Apple business and demonstrative of the power of the Apple brand.

Apple is a brand which certain consumer identify with, and such is the innovation and creativity of the Apple marketing department, loyalty has been almost cult-like. Cross-selling alternative products when the consumer is so heavily invested in the brand and ecosystem is a much simpler task, this will be one of the reasons Apple’s services division is becoming so successful, but it also explains the growing wearables segment.

Wearables is a family of technologies which has struggled through the years. The first smart watch, in its current form, was released in 2011, though the segment has never really gained the traction to make it an attractive business. Apple has been persisting with its own portfolio of smart watches for years, but it does now appear to have turned a corner.

“Apple Watch had a great start to fiscal 2020, setting an all-time revenue record during the quarter,” CEO Cook said during the earnings call. “It continues to have a profound impact on our customers’ lives and it continues to further its reach as over 75% of the customers purchasing Apple Watch during the quarter were new to Apple Watch.”

Apple is no-longer simply satisfying product refreshment cycles but attracting new customers into the smart watch bonanza. The more smart watch customers there are, the more normalised the product becomes, which then compounds the success, especially with more digital natives entering their 20s and collecting bigger salaries.

Apple is a company which is defined by iPhone. This will not change, such is the success of the product and the importance of the smartphone in today’s society, but diversifying the business was always viewed as critical to expanding the profitability of the firm. Apple is doing a remarkable job of capturing new revenues.

Philips files wearables patent complaint against Fitbit and Garmin

The US International Trade Commission (USITC) has said it will formally kick-off an investigation into Fitbit, Garmin and other parties, following a patent complaint from Philips.

Although the original filing was made last month, the probe into now Google-owned Fitbit, Garmin, Ingram Micro, Maintek Computer and Inventec Appliances can now begin after a vote from the USITC. Philips has suggested the parties have violated three of its patents in health monitoring and smart watch products.

Details might be a bit thin on the ground, though the three patents which Philips believes are in violation are:

  • US Patent No. 7,845,228: Activity motion tracking
  • US Patent No. 9,820,698: Actigraphy methods and apparatuses
  • US Patent No. 9,717,464: A continuous transdermal monitoring system
  • US Patent No. 9,961,186: A Personal Emergency Response System (PERS) system which is not confined to the individual’s home

Although Garmin and Fitbit are well known for their notable presence in the fitness wearables market, Philips has carved its own niche in the highly lucrative healthcare space. It might not be as ‘sexy’ a segment, but it can prove to be incredibly profitable, especially in a market such as North America where private insurance rules the roost.

Philips does have a presence in the consumer wearables space and has even launched a few smart watch products of its own, but these are considerably less successful that the Fitbit or Garmin alternatives. Success matters very little when it comes to patent violations, and Philips has requested the USITC block the import of the devices in question.

What is worth noting is this is not the first instance of bad blood between Philips and Fitbit.

During July 2019, Philips filed another patent infringement case filed in Massachusetts Court focusing on four different patents. These patents related to GPS, the security of data during transmission and fitness related applications. In this example, Philips claimed to have informed Fitbit about the violation, but the US firm did not respond to licensing calls. This case is on-going.

Fitness tracker use is exploding in the US, especially among rich young women

A recent Pew survey shows 21% of US adults regularly wear a smartwatch or fitness tracker. Over half of them think it acceptable for the device makers to share user data with medical researchers.

According to the survey results shared by the Pew Research Center, an American think-tank, smartwatch and fitness tracker adoption may have crossed the chasm from earlier adopters to early majority. 21% of the surveyed panellists already are regularly using smartwatch or specialised tracker to monitor their fitness.

Such a trajectory is in line with the recent market feedback that the total wearables market volume has nearly doubled from a year ago (though what counts as wearables may be contested), and both wristbands and smartwatches have grown by nearly 50%.

When it comes to difference in adoption rates between social groups, the penetration went up to nearly a third (31%) among those with a household income of over $75,000. In comparison, among those with a household income of less than $30,000, only 12% regularly wear such a device. In addition to variance by income groups, women, Hispanic adults, and respondents with a college degree and above are also more likely to wear such devices than men, non-college graduates, and other major ethnic groups.

Another question on the survey asks the respondents if they think makers of a fitness tracking app can share “their users’ data with medical researchers seeking to better understand the link between exercise and heart disease”. The response is divided. 41% of all the respondents said yes, as opposed to 35% saying no, while 22% unsure. However, the percentage of those believing such sharing acceptable went up to 53% among the respondents that are already regularly using such devices, compared to 38% among the non-adopters.

Due to the lack of a GDPR equivalent in the US, it is not much of a surprise that there is neither a consensus among users nor a standard industry practice related to user data sharing. “Recently, some concerns have been raised over who can and should have access to this health data. Military analysts have also expressed concern about how third parties can use the data to find out where there is an American military presence,” Pew said in its press release.

Meanwhile, how useful the data tracked by the devices can be for medical research purposes may also be debatable. For example, even the best of the devices, the Apple Watch, does not qualify as a medical device, despite its being “FDA certified”.

The survey was conducted by Pew from 3 to 17 June 2019. 4,272 qualified panellists responded to the survey.

Giesecke+Devrient lands Swatch contactless payment gig

Mobile security company Giesecke+Devrient is helping Swiss watch company Swatch with its own contactless payment technology.

Rather annoyingly called SwatchPAY!, the contactless platform was launched in China back in 2017 and is now available in Switzerland. It involves sticking an NFC chip in a watch, which you can then sync with your credit card. In that respect it’s pretty much a contactless card embedded in a watch.

Whether it functions just as easily is unclear, but Swatch seems to have partnered with all the right companies, including Mastercard, Credis Suisse, UBS and G+D. The latter is doing what it does best in providing the secure element for these watches, which also enables the activation of the contactless payment function in-store, when you buy one. Here’s how it works.

Swatchpay chart

“Continuous innovation is a key strand of the Swatch DNA,” said Carlo Giordanetti, Swatch Creative Director. “This latest advance, with the introduction of the fastest and simplest tokenization, makes it easier than ever to pay ‘forever’ – token up your Swatch, swipe it and you’re done. SwatchPAY! is simple, stylish and swatchy.”

“We are thrilled to be Swatch’s partner for this payment-enabled watch, which has been a huge success in China,” said Carsten Ahrens, CEO of Giesecke+Devrient Mobile Security. “The unique mix of iconic Swatch design and a payment functionality makes this a very appealing product, and we are proud to have contributed our extensive expertise in security, mobile payment and wearables technology.”

The Swiss watch industry has been in a flap about smart watches for a while, so it’s sensible to see one of them develop its own contactless payment platform. They’re fortunate that the killer use-case for smart watches hasn’t been found yet, but it presumably will be eventually. The key to this alternative being a success will be its ease of setup and use and it looks like they might have got that right.

Garmin has a go at reigniting smart watch enthusiasm

To date, it seems only the fitness brands can make the smart watch segment work for them, and while attention might have been diverted elsewhere recently, Garmin is having another crack.

Despite the fact revenues are increasing, shipments are increasing, and the usability of the devices are constantly improving, this segment has never really taken off. All positive steps forward have been small rather than industry shaking. Perhaps this was a product which was just ahead of its time, waiting for other technological advancements to catch up. One of these advancements is featuring prominently in the new Garmin launch.

“The vívoactive 3 Music with 4G LTE connectivity gives you everything you need from your phone – safety features, text messaging and the ability to download and listen to music – now on your watch, so customers can leave their phones behind with confidence,” said Dan Bartel, Garmin VP of Global Consumer Sales.

“Designed for customers who lead an active lifestyle, we’re excited to introduce these new safety and communication features to the Verizon-connected vívoactive 3 Music to give added peace of mind on the go, so leaving your phone at home can be a choice instead of a cause for panic.”

This new device, the vívoactive 3 Music, will be priced at $299.99 (the north-end of affordability for mass market) and will run on Verizon’s 4G network. The device will feature the same fitness and tracking capabilities as previous generations, as well as a contactless payment solution enabled by FitPay and the ability to download playlists from from third-party music services like Deezer and Spotify. Battery life is up to five days in smart watch mode or four hours when running the GPS.

While it has now been addressed, standalone connectivity was the first barrier to adoption for the smart watch segment. Why would you bother having a smart watch when you had to carry your phone around with you? It tells you the time, so does your phone. It plays music, so does your phone. It took phone calls and replied to messages, so does your phone. If the watch is tethered to your phone, what was the point in it?

In years gone, the fitness niche found success. Fitness tracking, both geographical and health monitoring, was an area of success allowing companies such as Garmin and Fitbit to make profits while others who focused on communications features or attempting to appeal to the fashion conscious struggled to make any notable progress. What Garmin and Fitbit did was not to compete with traditional watchmakers or smartphone manufacturers but create an additional segment. It might have been niche but has been growing steadily over the last couple of years, alongside the much slower (but increasingly more prominent) mass market acceptance of smart watches on the whole.

When you look at the smart watch segment, there certainly has been growth. IDC forecast the worldwide wearables market to ship 122.6 million units in 2018, up 6.2% from the 115.4 million units in 2017, and estimates growth in this segment to hit total shipment volumes of 190.4 million units by 2022. While this is progress, these are not revolutionary sales numbers or even growth which suggests the segment is about to take off.

Nowadays standalone connectivity is not a new thing, however Garmin has an established (and successful) brand in the smart watch segment, as well as a loyal customer base to push the new features onto. Whether this is enough of a pull to take smart watches to the next level remains to be seen, but if experience is anything to go by, the niche players will certainly help validate the smart watch in today’s society.

Trump takes next step in Chinese trade war

The United States Trade Representative will place a second round of tariffs on roughly $200 billion of imports from China, effective September 24, though it looks like Apple is passing through unscathed for the moment.

The 10% tariffs will be introduced on September 24, rising to 25% on January 1. Should China take retaliatory action, President Trump has promised to move onto phase three of the strategy, placing tariffs on an additional $267 billion of imports. While these tariffs are thought to spread to consumer goods, it seems some tech companies will escape any financial burdens, at least for the moment.

“After a thorough study, the USTR concluded that China is engaged in numerous unfair policies and practices relating to United States technology and intellectual property – such as forcing United States companies to transfer technology to Chinese counterparts,” said Trump. “These practices plainly constitute a grave threat to the long-term health and prosperity of the United States economy.”

While the White House has attempted to shield the consumer from the negative impacts of the tariff strategy, it was only going to be a matter of time. Not only would the domino effect of the initial tariffs eventually spread through various ecosystems, the US only imports so much from China. Two rounds of tariffs worth $250 billion was bound to hit the consumer pocket before too long. That said, certain products feature on the 300-list of exempt products.

You can see the full list of products on the tariff list here. It is of course incredibly wide ranging, it’s 192 pages long, though the consumer’s back pocket will almost certainly be hit. Seafood features heavily to start, and fans of frogs legs will also suffer. Vegetables are there, as is vinegar. Suitcases, golf bags, baseball mitts, bible paper, carpets, hats and car seats will also be included.

Looking at the technology industry, smart watches, wireless headphones and smart speakers are believed to be on an exempt list, though this is only from the US side. US heavyweights such as Apple might be largely free of collateral damage for the moment, though China will hit back before too long.

Trump might be looking to protect industries and consumers which will largely be in his support camp, though this is not to say Beijing won’t look to inflict damage here. In response to the tariffs imposed in June, China hit back against the farmers, and while iLifers might have been protected thus far it would certainly be a big scalp to claim. Considering the reliance Apple has on China, this would certainly be an effective move.

So far the consumer may not be that concerned about the escalating trade war, as the short-term benefits are a PR win for Trump. Presidential speeches can focus on driving more jobs back onto US shores and the bank accounts are bulging thanks to the tariffs. But this round of tariffs will certainly make life more expensive day to day.

In excluding certain products from tariffs, the Trump administration has simply pointed towards products which it believes could cause political damage. With such an open goal, we imagine the Chinese government will take an incredibly long run up at the consumer technology industry. Look out Apple, Beijing might be eying you up.

The FDA certified Apple Watch is still not a medical device

The new Apple Watch has been cleared by the FDA to sell as a low-grade health tracking device but is not producing medical grade data.

At the event where the new iPhones were launched, Apple also launched the 4th iteration Apple Watch. Though it was not the focus of the event, Apple deservedly prided itself for being the first smart watch to pass FDA test. One feature highlighted at the presentation is, by combining the readings from the gyroscope and the accelerometer the Watch can tell when a user has tripped or fallen. If the user stays static after the fall for more than a minute, the cellular equipped Watch can automatically call for help from emergency service or reach out to the family or friend. This can turn out very helpful for the aging population.

Another function of the Apple Watch being marketed is its capability to detect and alert the user irregular heartbeats which can be a symptom of a heart condition called atrial fibrillation, or AFib. This can also be a meaningful feature for a large user group: according to estimates by the US Centers for Disease Control, between 2.7 and 6.1 million people in the US have AFib, many of whom may not be even aware of it.

Apple has conducted an “Apple Heart Study” with Stanford University, the findings of which became the basis on which it gained the FDA clearance. However the total sample size was small (few than 600) and the match rate with professional medical devices was not extremely high. But the data was good enough to convince FDA that the solution worked and it was safe. Apple Watch was given a Class II risk device category, meaning it will not be life threatening even if it does not work. In contrast, if a pacemaker stops working the patient will die, therefore it is classified Class III.

In its approval file to Apple, the FDA demanded Apple to explicitly spell out the possibility of inaccurate reading as well as warn users that the is not a replacement for medical care, although the worst that can happen when the Watch reading is wrong is to cause scare for a healthy user.

Therefore, the new Apple Watch can do the job of a low to mid-range electrocardiogram reader, but it is not a medical device. In a typical professional situation, a patient will have 12 reading leads attached to different parts of the body, including the chest and the limbs, to provide accurate reading. What Apple Watch can give is equivalent to one of them, on the wrist.

No professional physicians will make judgement based on the reading on the Apple Watch. Any sensible users had better not either.

Fitbit fights back at Apple in the smart watch market

The latest smart watch numbers from analyst firm Counterpoint reveal Apple is still the dominant player but Fitbit is giving it a run for its money.

Total global smart watch shipments grew 37% year-on-year but it’s rapidly turning into a two horse race. Apple hijacked the market as soon as it took the segment seriously but its initial success seemed to stall. Meanwhile Fitbit more recently made the strategic decision to diversify beyond fitness bands and that move seems to have paid dividends.

Apple still dominates with a 41% of global shipments, but that’s down from 48% a year ago. Meanwhile Fitbit has managed to propel its share from 8% a year ago to 21% in Q2 2018, thanks to the apparently popular Versa smart. Everyone else is miles behind, with one-time leader Samsung now bordering on irrelevance.

Counterpoint smartwatch Q2 2018 1

“Back in Q4 2017, Apple stepped up its strategy in the smartwatch segment by enhancing the features of smart watches into broad-based functionalities, including some health and fitness tracking capabilities,” said Satyajit Sinha of Counterpoint. “Moreover, Apple is catalysing the trend of ‘smart watch as a standalone wearable device’ with adoption of cellular connectivity, which is driving the new wave of cellular connected wearables globally, great news for mobile operators.”

It doesn’t look like the market got the memo about standalone smart watches, however. As Sinha’s colleague Neil Shah notes, people seem reluctant to pay the premium just for the opportunity to talk to their wrist like a nut-case.

“Despite initial hype and traction of cellular based Apple Watch Series 3 in the first two quarters, Apple iPhone users are actually choosing the Series 1 as a non-cellular option over Series 3 non-cellular model which is surprising to many industry watchers,” said Shah. Not all industry watchers mate. The strong inference here is that Apple hasn’t done much to improve on the Series 1 other than whack in an expensive and largely redundant modem.

As indicated the Apple Watch Series 1 is the best selling model, followed by the Fitbit Versa. Given that Chinese vendor Amazfit has the third best selling brand despite only having a 4% total market share, that implies these two models are by far the biggest sellers. Unsurprisingly the Fitbit Versa is significantly cheaper than any Amazon Watch, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see it continue to grab share in the coming quarters.

Counterpoint smartwatch Q2 2018 2

Maybe Fitbit can be more than just a niche exercise product

Fitbit might not be turning in the results of yesteryear, but riding the wave of Versa to beat analyst expectations demonstrates there might be mass-market appeal for the brand.

Total revenues stood at $299.3 million for the three months ending June 30, and while this is still considerably down on the $353.3 produced in the same period for 2017, it beats expectations from analysts. The success for this period has been attributed to Versa, the team’s attempt to break away from the fitness-tracking niche and enter into the mainstream smartwatch market.

“Our performance in Q2 represents the sixth consecutive quarter that we have delivered on our financial commitments, made important progress in transforming our business, and continued to adapt to the changing wearables market,” said CEO James Park.

“Demand for Versa, our first ‘mass-appeal’ smartwatch, is very strong. Within the second quarter, Versa outsold Samsung, Garmin and Fossil smartwatches combined in North America, improving our position with retailers, solidifying shelf space for the Fitbit brand and providing a halo effect to our other product offerings.”

Overall, Fitbit sold 2.7 million wearable devices across the quarter, with the average unit price increasing 6% year-on-year, primarily down to the newer product releases. Those devices released in the last twelve months accounted for 59% of total revenues, providing confidence in the brands ability to diversify from the niche which has served it so well through the underwhelming years for wearable devices.

Fitbit launched the Versa on 16 April and boasted about selling one million devices just over one month later. The product is more in-line with what you would have expected from a smartwatch device, moving beyond the fitness tracking niche Fitbit has become known for. Just looking at the device demonstrates the shift, though what’s on the device is what counts, as it features all the apps we have become accustomed to. It is a big move from Fitbit, and it looks to have worked.

Perhaps this is a positive sign for the wearables industry on the whole. For years, Fitbit appeared to be the only wearables brand which could survive as devices failed to meet the expectations of consumers. Maybe the consumer was not ready for the wearables craze, but the simplicity of Fitbits fitness trackers worked. In being able to move out of the niche and into mass-market appeal, this might be a sign the general public is ready to embrace wearables on the whole.

Looking at the share price, it is still way down on the peak from 2015, some 87%, but there have been signs of recovery across 2018. There is a notable dip in the last 5-6 weeks, though should Fitbit be able to maintain this venture into the mainstream market, we can only see the share price going up.

Fitbit Shareprice

LVMH has a crack at the smart watch market

The smart watch euphoria never took off, so logic surely dictates the price point was just too low… Hang on a sec.

LVMH, which owns such brands as Louis Vuitton, Hennessy and Lady Dior, has told Bloomberg of plans to launch a luxury smart watch product line under the Hublot brand. We’ve never been convinced by the segment on the whole, and when Apple can’t convince it cult-like following to buy the products it is never a good sign. But LVMH is clearly confident in the $5,200 product…

“It’s a unique one-shot,” said Jean-Claude Biver, LVMH’s watch boss. “It will be a collector’s watch in 20 years.”

Sure it will Jean-Claude.

There is a theory in the marketing world that the more expensive you make something, the more people will want it. Once it is out of reach it is desirable because it shows you are someone who can afford something which is out of the ordinary. It becomes a status symbol. This is essentially the philosophy which companies like LVMH, who specialise in luxury goods, are built upon. But we can’t see it working here.

The practicalities of smart watches are simple, therefore the basic brands, such as Fitbit, have been the most successful. Others have taken up the challenge of proving the technology is useful, Apple is persisting with this mission, but little success has been shown. It isn’t a product which will replace the smartphone, therefore upping the price shows little justification, and it certainly isn’t a fashionable symbol.

Just like Vertu smartphones, Kanye West-designed clothes, carbon fiber toilet seats or Kevin Bacon adverts, this device will probably just go down as pointlessly expensive.