Mavenir places fortunes in hands of big boys and RCS

Mavenir is a business which has been growing steadily over the last few years, capitalizing on the virtualization buzz, though future prospects could ultimately be out of their control.

One aspect of the business model for Mavenir is simple. It is somewhat reliant on the process of decoupling hardware from software, the emergence of standardised NFVi, which in turn will allow operators to reduce spending on hardware, placing more emphasis on software, which is the dream situation when rolling out the 5G world. Mavenir does of course have some pretty handy technology outside this grand plan, but this seems to be the general thesis.

This trend of decoupling hardware from software is already underway, though admittedly progress has been lethargic to date due to resistance from today’s heavyweight vendors and some operators clinging to the strategies of yesteryear, but staggered steps forward are being made. This is where Mavenir can enter the fray with the knockout punch; because its business model is not associated with hardware, it can offer software products and services cheaper.

The overarching theory is sound. Companies like Huawei and Ericsson, despite becoming software players in their own right, will have to protect total revenues; the transition from an integrated hardware/software solution to purely software will drop revenues, therefore in the first instance prices in the pure-play software business will be inflated. These are companies which will not want to shock investors with a plummet in revenues, therefore the transition into the virtualized world with be ‘managed’. With the traditional heavyweights overcharging, Mavenir can swoop in and undercut because there are no legacy hardware business revenues to worry about.

This all sounds like a very effective business model, but a lot of it is dependent on factors which are outside the control of the company itself. As it stands, Mavenir is profitable, with revenues of roughly $500 million and plans to grow this number to more than $1 billion in four years, but this all depends on virtualization trends picking up pace, operators embracing the new dynamics of the digital economy, 5G deployments to be as optimistic as currently being preached, and of course the assumption they can undercut the bigger boys on price.

But this is only one part of the Mavenir story, the other is focused on RCS, and looks incredibly promising. To date, RCS has been somewhat of a dirty word for the operators, with the webscale player plundering the bounties. But the tide is turning. Recognising the potential for RCS when delivering new services in messaging and multi-media content, it is embraced by operators in North America, with trends slowly beginning to sail across the Atlantic to Europe.

In the RCS world, Mavenir has been one of the first to get to the party. The team has already developed cloud-based applications, allowing easier integration for the operators, but more importantly, these applications aren’t just focused on the consumer services. This is where the webscale players have been reaping the benefits, but with an eye on the enterprise services market, Mavenir has the potential to make solid progress.

Another very important factor is the procurement process. The team already count 240 companies around the world as customers, and many of these customers are fickle beasts. They don’t like the unknown and fear change, the fact Mavenir is already a known entity is a positive. But known under what name…

This has been the plague of the business for the last few years. It was known as one name, then another brand, before adopting a new logo. Consistency has not be a major play, which will certainly make some nervous. A big question is whether Mavenir has permanently solved its identity crisis.

The theory about being able to undercut competitors is believable, but until competitors start talking about pricing models, we’ll never actually know. The assumption here is competitors will be defensive of hardware revenues, not aggressive on the software side. However, trends in the VoLTE world, where Mavenir is arguably knocking the likes of Nokia and Ericsson off the pedestal, and RCS are looking promising for the business.

A large component of Mavenir’ success seems to be heavily reliant on the deviousness of today’s mega-vendors and whether they will abuse relationships with customers, as well as adoption trends with are largely uncontrollable. A lot of future success seems to be dependent on moving cogs functioning smoothly and in a timely manner, but the team is confident… some might even say cocky.