AT&T just misplaced 267k DirecTV Now subs, but it’s OK

The AT&T earnings call was somewhat of a mixed bag of results, with gains on mobile but it somewhat irresponsibly managed to misplace 267,000 DirecTV Now subscribers; its ok says CEO.

Digging down into the numbers always tends to lead to many twists and turns, but the big one is DirecTV Now, the telcos attempt to blend into differentiation and get ahead of the cord cutting generation. This has not exactly been a rip-roaring success for the business so far but losing 267,000 subscribers in three months is a headline which will take some beating.

So where did they go? According to the business, they were basically just allowed to leave. With $10 a month promotional subscriptions biting down hard on profitability, the powers-that-be seemingly decided to cut the losses. The company scaled back promotions and the number of customers on entry-level plans declined significantly, however on a more positive note, the number of premium subscriptions remained stable.

Unfortunately for AT&T, stable will not cut the grade anymore. Having made the questionable decision to acquire DirecTV for $67 billion in mid-2015, some would have hoped the outcome would be more than ‘stable’ three years later. With another whopper of an acquisition taking place during this three-year period, AT&T will be hoping to scale up success before too long if it is to reduce the debt weighing down the spreadsheets.

“Our top priority for 2018 and 2019 is reducing our debt and I couldn’t be more pleased with how we closed the year,” said CEO Randall Stephenson. “In 2018, we generated record free cash flow while investing at near-record levels.”

The other acquisition, WarnerMedia, seems to be having a better time of it than DirecTV. Total WarnerMedia revenues were $9.2 billion, up 5.9% year over year, primarily driven by higher Warner Bros revenues, consolidation of Otter Media and higher affiliate subscription revenues at Turner. What remains to be seen is whether this can continue. WarnerMedia is a media company which is awaiting the full integration and transformation wonders from AT&T. What impact this risk-adverse, lethargic and traditional business will have on the media giant is unknown in the long-run.

Elsewhere in the business, things were a little more positive. The team added 134,000 valuable post-paid subscriptions in the wireless business, though this remained below expectations, with the total now up to 153 million. Total revenues were up15.2% to $47.99 billion though this was also below analysts’ estimates of $48.5 billion. A bit more positive, than DirecTV’s car crash, but still not good enough according to Wall Street as share price declined 4.5%.

Apple turns to gaming to crack subscription conundrum – sources

Apple has been searching far and wide for alternative revenue streams to reduce its reliance on the plateauing devices market, and the latest venture might take it into the world of gaming.

With content being an incredible bust for the business, Apple is reportedly in hot pursuit of the blossoming gaming segment. This is an area which would seemingly tick all the boxes for the iLeader; recurring revenues, a chance to grow organically and in before the segment has become popular and saturated.

According to Cheddar, Apple is in discussions to create a gaming platform which would bundle various titles together behind a paywall. It sounds like it could be a Netflix for gamers and would certainly give the status quo of gaming a bit of a poke.

Looking at the gaming segment, this is an area which is becoming increasing popular with users while profitability is certainly heading in the right direction for the developers and platform owners. There is already a lot of money flowing around this space, but as more games evolve away from single- to multi-player, internet focused experiences, popularity seems to be growing in the mainstream markets.

Recent figures from the Entertainment Retailers Association (ERA) in the UK suggest gaming now accounts for just over 51% of the three segments in the entertainment world (video and music being the other two), doubling in revenues since 2007. Netflix and Amazon have proven the subscription OTT segment has legs, normalised the idea in the mind of the consumer, so why shouldn’t a gaming platform work as well.

Of course, for this to work Apple would have to convince the developers to join hands behind the paywall. This is where Apple’s venture into the world of content has failed before; it didn’t create good enough content to be considered a realistic player. This will certainly be a big change in the status quo for the developers and it will be interesting to see what the results are. Apple not only needs high quality content, but a broad enough portfolio to make it value for money.

Here is where Apple is swimming against the tide. Single purchases might have been the way developers made money in the past, but the popular route is now free-to-play with in-game purchasing options. It has proven to be very successful and there might be some resistance to move to another business model. Don’t fix what isn’t broken might be a relevant phrase here. What Apple is suggesting in a completely new approach to revenue sharing as the games are bundled together behind a paywall. Theoretically it can work but change scares the majority.

If Apple can balance the equation, it would certainly be a relief for CEO Tim Cook who must be feeling some pressure right now. A less than enthusiastic earnings call demonstrated Apple is floundering in the software and services segment. Yes, it is growing, but not at the rate of knots which Apple investors have come to expect. Apple hasn’t really done anything exciting or applaudable in this segment yet, most of the gains are through iTunes or Apple Care for example; differentiation and diversification are desired above all else.

Apple is certainly stepping out of its comfort zone here, and we strongly suspect it might fail because of this. However, it might just lead the way for a fast follower (Netflix perhaps?) to reap the rewards.

In fairness though, you have to give Apple credit for creative thinking and an interesting idea. Those recurring revenues might not be that far away for the iGiant.

Jio bags another 10 million – how was your October?

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released the subscription data for October and it’s another familiar story as Reliance Jio grows its subscription base again.

Looking at the market on the whole, India now has 1.17 billion wireless subscriptions, having added another 720,000 during October. Amazingly, market penetration is now up to 87%. While growth has been staggering since Reliance Jio shunted the status quo, if the country follows what would be considered the traditional trend (mobile penetration eventually exceeding 100% of population) there are still a couple of hundred million mobile subscription to realise.

Unsurprisingly, Reliance Jio has greedily devoured almost all of the positive growth.

Subscription growth Market share
Reliance Jio 10,500,227 22.46%
BSNL 386,926 9.7%
Reliance (3,831) 0.002%
MTNL (8,068) 0.3%
Tata (925,299) 1.8%
Bharti Airtel (1,864,065) 29.2%
Vodafone Idea (7,361,165) 36.55%

With only BSNL, India’s state-owned telco, heading upwards Reliance Jio has firmly placed itself in the strongest position across the market. Bharti Airtel is in somewhat of a downward spiral and it’s difficult to see how it will get itself out of this position, therefore eyes will be cast towards Vodafone Idea for resistance to the Reliance Jio tsunami which is sweeping India.

Looking at these figures alone paints a relatively dreary picture, though you have to appreciate the complicated process the business is currently undertaking. The merger between Vodafone and Idea, which was caused by the jittery upstart Jio, is going through the rationalisation period right now. This is a very complex time and will define the firm’s ability to tackle the Reliance Jio headache in the months to come.

On the money side, we do not foresee this being a massive issue. Vodafone and Idea are merging two massive networks and will soon enough realise the benefits of scale. The subscriber base is massive, providing security for any future investments, and the sale of various different assets (such as the respective tower businesses) provides a hefty war-chest. Taking these factors into account, money should not be an issue, so we have to wonder whether the right people will be put into the right roles and if the right (and flexible enough) strategy will be put in place.

Vodafone Idea is now clearly the market leader in India, but it will only take a couple more months of Reliance Jio continuing on its current path for this lead to be eroded. The momentum is gathering behind Reliance Jio and new products and services (such as fixed broadband) will only add more as convergence ambitions are realised; the emphasis is certainly on Vodafone Idea to prove this isn’t turning into a one-man market.